A Turning Point In History

[Game_Over]

As I have just 'had a go' at people on another thread for getting bogged down in insignificant details and missing the 'big picture', this is my take on where we are at the moment.

We have just experienced by far the biggest credit bubble in history and now it has burst I cannot understand it when people question why I think things will change.

So for the record these are some of my predictions for the future.

The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

The EU itself will not survive in its current form

MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

China's Economic miracle is finished

Socialism in the UK is finished.

The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

Renewable energy in this country is finished

Oil gas and coal will last another 100 years

I don't want an argument with anyone, I am just interested to see how 'off the wall' my predictions are viewed by other people.

But if anyone else wants an argument, be my guest.

It would also be interesting to see if anyone else is prepared to 'stick their necks out' and make a few predictions of their own.

Edited September 3, 2009 by Game_Over

[Deckard]

off topic?

[ralphmalph]

The Pits will be reopened in the UK.

[GBdamo]

As I have just 'had a go' at people on another thread for getting bogged down in insignificant details and missing the 'big picture', this is my take on where we are at the moment.

We have just experienced by far the biggest credit bubble in history and now it has burst I cannot understand it when people question why I think things will change.

So for the record these are some of my predictions for the future.

The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years Don't know

The EU itself will not survive in its current form Don't know

MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin. Probably

China's Economic miracle is finished Probably

Socialism in the UK is finished. Unlikely

The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before. Probably

The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years. Probably

Renewable energy in this country is finished Unlikely

I don't want an argument with anyone, I am just interested to see how 'off the wall' my predictions are viewed by other people. Mildly extream.

But if anyone else wants an argument, be my guest.

It would also be interesting to see if anyone else is prepared to 'stick their necks out' and make a few predictions of their own.

Peak oilers and Environmentalists will never change their point of view because they don't have to. The 'science' behind AGW, MMGW, CC or whatever they call it these days will remain vague enough so as not to conclusively prove or disprove the arguments in their lifetimes, licence to be a zealot.

My prediction - People will always find something to argue about.

[Gone baby gone]

My prediction - people will continue to make predictions, most of which will be wrong.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

The Pits will be reopened in the UK.

agreed

[Game_Over]

Peak oilers and Environmentalists will never change their point of view because they don't have to. The 'science' behind AGW, MMGW, CC or whatever they call it these days will remain vague enough so as not to conclusively prove or disprove the arguments in their lifetimes, licence to be a zealot.

My prediction - People will always find something to argue about.

I don't agree

But I will add another pediction to my list

That oil, gas and coal will last another 100 years

[scottbeard]

agree with:

The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

China's Economic miracle is finished

disagree with

The EU itself will not survive in its current form

Socialism in the UK is finished.

The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

Renewable energy in this country is finished

I'd add:

UK manufacturing will increase every year from 2011 onwards

UK agriculture will increase every year from 2010 onwards

Average UK and US living standards will decline from now onwards (unfortunately, but inevitably)

[Sparkie]

Renewable energy in this country is finished

Yes I agree but only due to cost, everyone wants solar P.V, but not at the price of a new Merc. I think there will be a renewables bubble, but not in the next 10 - 15 years, but when the science catches up and the costs lower.

[Game_Over]

off topic?

Possibly, but it's more interesting and relevant than arguing about the merits of particular management consultants

IMHO

[Pole]

The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

The EU itself will not survive in its current form

Socialism in the UK is finished.

'Hidden socialism' is where we're heading for. Most politicians would naturally want to be leaders of socialist countries. All they want is power. And being a leader of a socialist country gives you enormous amounts of power because anything you do is for your people's own good (as long as they keep believing in your lies about various threats like terrorism, global warming, credit crunch, etc.).

For political reasons they never dared to lie on that scale in the Western World when the Soviet Union existed.

But now the politicians can do whatever they want as there's no alternative. Sadly, the collapse of the USSR changed the Western World for worse.

[Game_Over]

Yes I agree but only due to cost, everyone wants solar P.V, but not at the price of a new Merc. I think there will be a renewables bubble, but not in the next 10 - 15 years, but when the science catches up and the costs lower.

I think renewables were only viable when the World was awash with cheap credit.

The Uk economy is in such a bloody mess now and we have got such a big energy gap looming that the only real solution is to build a new generation of coal fired stations and nukes.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

off topic?

Possibly, but it's more interesting and relevant than arguing about the merits of particular management consultants

IMHO

you should have put something in about sterling crashing & 'parity', that would have made the difference, he would be spitting feathers then.

Edited September 3, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns

[Game_Over]

Peak oilers and Environmentalists will never change their point of view because they don't have to. The 'science' behind AGW, MMGW, CC or whatever they call it these days will remain vague enough so as not to conclusively prove or disprove the arguments in their lifetimes, licence to be a zealot.

My prediction - People will always find something to argue about.

Also a bit dissapointed with 'mildly extreme'

I musn't be trying hard enough!

[Tob the Blether]

The bourgeois factory system of production will risk being overthrown by the incipient class of consciousness, of which this forum is one of the birthing pains.

Their 'everyone can be a celebrity' strategy having failed, reactionary forces will attempt to stymie the growing class consciousness through appeals to nationalism, turning worker against worker and risking disastrous military adventures.

A Keynsian compromise resembling the Scandinavian social model will eventually prevail.

[Game_Over]

you should have put something in about sterling crashing & 'parity', that would have made the difference, he would be spitting feathers then.

Pound/Euro exchange rate is irrelevant in the long run IMO

I don't believe we will ever join the Euro because in the long run it will not survive.

[Pole]

The bourgeois factory system of production will risk being overthrown by the incipient class of consciousness, of which this forum is one of the birthing pains.

Their 'everyone can be a celebrity' strategy having failed, reactionary forces will attempt to stymie the growing class consciousness through appeals to nationalism, turning worker against worker and risking disastrous military adventures.

A Keynsian compromise resembling the Scandinavian social model will eventually prevail.

Vladimir, is that really you?

[Game_Over]

'Hidden socialism' is where we're heading for. Most politicians would naturally want to be leaders of socialist countries. All they want is power. And being a leader of a socialist country gives you enormous amounts of power because anything you do is for your people's own good (as long as they keep believing in your lies about various threats like terrorism, global warming, credit crunch, etc.).

For political reasons they never dared to lie on that scale in the Western World when the Soviet Union existed.

But now the politicians can do whatever they want as there's no alternative. Sadly, the collapse of the USSR changed the Western World for worse.

Thanks,

Very interesting take on the 'end of Socialism'.

Before the crash we were being lied to 'Big Time'

No more Boom and Bust

The EU and the Euro had brought an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity

The Man Made Global Warming Scam

And we are still being lied to now.

But how long can this continue?

Not much longer I think.

[Game_Over]

Vladimir, is that really you?

Yes, unbelievable isn't it?

[GBdamo]

A Keynsian compromise resembling the Scandinavian social model will eventually prevail.

I like the sound of that. But, is that before or after the lizard people reduce the population by 90%?

Edited September 3, 2009 by GBdamo

[Deckard]

you should have put something in about sterling crashing & 'parity', that would have made the difference, he would be spitting feathers then.

harsh but fair

[Game_Over]

The bourgeois factory system of production will risk being overthrown by the incipient class of consciousness, of which this forum is one of the birthing pains.

Their 'everyone can be a celebrity' strategy having failed, reactionary forces will attempt to stymie the growing class consciousness through appeals to nationalism, turning worker against worker and risking disastrous military adventures.

A Keynsian compromise resembling the Scandinavian social model will eventually prevail.

If you had been saying this a hundred years ago you would have been at the cutting edge of political thinking.

Social models that work in very small, very wealthy, resource rich countries invariably fail in large industrialised societies.

But that is only my opinion of course.

[Pole]

Thanks,

Very interesting take on the 'end of Socialism'.

Before the crash we were being lied to 'Big Time'

No more Boom and Bust

The EU and the Euro had brought an unprecedented era of peace and prosperity

The Man Made Global Warming Scam

And we are still being lied to now.

But how long can this continue?

Not much longer I think.

Just two simple examples.

If the private pension schemes had been axed before 1989, the USSR would have exposed it around the world as the failure of capitalism.

If the cost of an average house before 1989 had been 7 or 8 times the average salary, the USSR would have exposed it around the world as the failure of capitalism.

These days pensions can be axed, houses can be overpriced for as long as they want, people can be forced to pay for banks' losses. The politicians keep telling us that it's for our ow good. The problem is that there's no alternative around. They can lie about anything - no one is there to expose their lies.

The USSR was the most evil system that ever existed on this planet but as an alternative to capitalism it kept putting limits on the western governments.

[Seydel]

I doubt whether the US dollar will be the world's reserve currency this time next year never mind in 100 years. To usher in a one world currency the US dollar simply has to crash and burn.

The biggest hurdle to NWO centralised control of capital is millions of heavily armed American citizens.

To paraphrase something Kissinger once uttered, if we create the right crisis then the people will beg for our solution. The old problem, reaction, solution = skint 'em, starve 'em, then enslave 'em financially with our electronic/virtual currency.

[DeepLurker]

Hey, I love these prediction games

As I have just 'had a go' at people on another thread for getting bogged down in insignificant details and missing the 'big picture', this is my take on where we are at the moment.

We have just experienced by far the biggest credit bubble in history and now it has burst I cannot understand it when people question why I think things will change.

So for the record these are some of my predictions for the future.

The Euro will fail in the next 5-10 years

Very unlikely. The Franco-Germans are very attached to their alliance, they see it as the main factor the 60 years without way that Europe has enjoyed. They will do anything to preserve it. However, see next comment...

The EU itself will not survive in its current form

Very likely. The French voters in particular are disillusioned with the EU in its current form (although they are very attached to the EU itself).

MMGW will be quietly consigned to the political dustbin.

Very likely. It's impossible to make people think of the long term in the middle of a recession.

China's Economic miracle is finished

Yes and no. It might be over, but their industrial output has increased massively. They could be compared to the USA at the start of the 20th century, in particular I'm worried that they might create their own "Monroe Doctrine" in SE Asia. And why not? They've got the factories, the manpower, and they're big enough to not get bullied by the US any more.

Socialism in the UK is finished.

That's like saying that naive optimism is dead

We've got a century of failed socialist states behind us, yet millions still believe it to be superior to capitalism.

The US will emerge from this depression even more powerful than it was before.

I beg to differ They can no longer boss China around, and they've closed down zillions of factories. Ok, they've got fancy military toys, but an army also needs more mundane supplies: toothpicks, boot polish, watches, most of which now come from... China

The Dollar will be the World reserve currency for the next 100 years.

As long as the USA can keep on convincing the world that it is all powerful.

Renewable energy in this country is finished

Definitely not.

At present renewables are already cost-effective in edge cases (top of mountains, solar water in hot countries, etc...). They are slowly becoming more cost-effective in larger installations, and I can't see that trend changing unless if a new Saudi Arabia is found.

I don't want an argument with anyone, I am just interested to see how 'off the wall' my predictions are viewed by other people.

But if anyone else wants an argument, be my guest.

It would also be interesting to see if anyone else is prepared to 'stick their necks out' and make a few predictions of their own.

It's more fun than another thread on the Wilsons

For what it's worth, here's a prediction of my own:

"Gift economies" will develop and grow to replace a significant part of the traditional free market system. I'm biased here as my job (website developer) would not exist without the gift economies (a.k.a. open source software, creative commons) that already exists.