Charlie Don't Surf Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 When I look at my area on Rightmove its the same stock that was on there 8 months ago. Yet the prices are the same (~10x local wage) It seems obvious the only thing that'll get things moving are price reductions. The only thing I can see causing that is unemployment rising - any other ideas / timescales? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarahBell Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 The four horsemen of the housing crash debt, divorce, dementia, death, will all come a knocking to a house near you soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vested Disinterest Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 When I look at my area on Rightmove its the same stock that was on there 8 months ago. Yet the prices are the same (~10x local wage)It seems obvious the only thing that'll get things moving are price reductions. The only thing I can see causing that is unemployment rising - any other ideas / timescales? I see roughly the same, although something near me sold quickly after a £75k reduction, and a few others are going SSTC (and some of those back to available). A gentle slide or forced sales are the only way. Unfortunately I think the LR price ratchet is engrained in everyone's mentality... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPeregrination Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Nothing Selling - No Reductions Either, What happens next? Lots of reposessions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintJay Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 they'll rent it out instead...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 why should anything happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 they'll rent it out instead...... .............and wait for the recovery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintJay Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 .............and wait for the recovery wait? I thought the recovery was in full swing..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doomandgloom2 Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Houses are selling at 2004 prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver lining Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Houses are selling at 2004 prices Feb/March 2006 according to Nationwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RufflesTheGuineaPig Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 "What happens next?" Does anyone have that picture of the nuclear bomb going off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 People will sell when they need to eat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STRLondon Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 House prices have reached a permanently high plateau. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfie Moon Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Feb/March 2006 according to Nationwide. Nationwide data is compiled from 'mortgage approvals' not completed sales. You need to look at the Land Registry data - in my locality properties that get through to completion are selling at 2004/05 levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Nationwide data is compiled from 'mortgage approvals' not completed sales. You need to look at the Land Registry data - in my locality properties that get through to completion are selling at 2004/05 levels. And that is one house per month per agent at 2004 / 2005 levels on the back of positive sentiment about the market and the summer bounce/ blip .....looks good for the winter doesn't it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver lining Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Nationwide data is compiled from 'mortgage approvals' not completed sales. You need to look at the Land Registry data - in my locality properties that get through to completion are selling at 2004/05 levels. LR changed its format in 2007 IIRC. I don't believe it's available in its current form for 2006. However, the FT house price index uses completion data and that too shows current prices at February 2006 levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laura Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Lots of reposessions. 'Owned' by companies affiliated with certain banks. Properties priced as before. Fascinating isn't it --- ? Thought:- Are you happy with the currency you may be saving in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 LR changed its format in 2007 IIRC. I don't believe it's available in its current form for 2006.However, the FT house price index uses completion data and that too shows current prices at February 2006 levels. The one property per month per agent that is selling and selling at 2006 levels I assume are ONLY selling at 2006 levels because the buyers do not need a large mortgage, or are the articles wrong that keep informing us that valuations are coming in 25 % + under peak resulting in chains breaking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laura Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 why should anything happen? Because ebb & flow are the natural order & bo*loks isn't? Except we have a leader who walks on heavy water Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stargazer Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 I guess many people who are trying to sell are at the point where they are unable to lower their asking price because they need to achieve that price to clear their mortgage - if they can't clear the mortgage would they be allowed to sell? Unless they have pile of cash to bridge the gap or are willing to take out a unsecured loan to cover a difference of a few thousand pounds. It's not even a case of being in negative equity. The process of selling a house can cost several thousand pounds, then several more thousand if you want to buy another (cheaper) house. Even going into rented requires cash for a months rent in advance and a months rent as deposit. So people in this particular trap could be willing but unable to lower their asking price. Others may be in denial about how much their house is actually worth on the open market, especially if they have spent many thousands of pounds on home improvements. Add to this the fact that house sales often involve the dreaded "chain" of 3 or 4 (or even more!) parties and everyone has to be in position at the same time or the whole thing just collapses, we can start to see why houses remain on the market for many months or even a couple of years. Still on the subject of "chains", by definition these must rely on a first time buyer (a very rare animal at the moment) to end the chain and allow the whole thing to complete. Eventually I think prices will be forced drop to more realistic multiples of income as someone has pointed out by death, divorce or debt but this will take time. It isn't going to happen overnight, more likely 18 months to 2 years, it's often said that we're approx. this time behind the USA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmzr Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 When I look at my area on Rightmove its the same stock that was on there 8 months ago. Yet the prices are the same (~10x local wage)It seems obvious the only thing that'll get things moving are price reductions. The only thing I can see causing that is unemployment rising - any other ideas / timescales? i posted the message below yesterday, 100 people have viewed it, but no one responded to it....but i think it's a measure of whatis actually happening in the real world the data below is for a road near me, in surbiton, greater london all the houses are identical victorian semi's.....no scope for loft conversions, no planning allowed for rear extensions.....most have been bought/renovated/sold in the last 10 years. it's the sort of place people move to for 3 years and then move on (as i did) sure, some are in better nick than others....but they are all the same size, same location, etc etc etc given the similarity in houses and the number of sales, i think this makes for a very good sample to look at real house price change i tried to paste a graph in,...but it won't let me....but, the trend is clear......prices went up astronomically in 2007 and have now down by a lot, judging by the recent sales the last two houses on the bottom of the list were both on for £359,000.....so sold for 20% below asking price........ 09/12/2005 £249,000 12a, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 12/01/2006 £290,500 88, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 12/01/2006 £285,000 93, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 26/01/2006 £294,500 41, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 06/02/2006 £289,950 29, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 24/02/2006 £248,950 23, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 10/03/2006 £307,500 80, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 17/03/2006 £307,500 82, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 31/03/2006 £301,000 52, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 26/05/2006 £309,500 73, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 13/06/2006 £322,000 40, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 26/07/2006 £315,000 84, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 25/08/2006 £302,000 78, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 14/09/2006 £319,000 35, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 26/09/2006 £306,000 13, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 03/11/2006 £305,000 94, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 14/12/2006 £310,000 77, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 20/12/2006 £360,000 65, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 21/12/2006 £370,000 44, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 09/01/2007 £345,000 68, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 23/02/2007 £375,000 56, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 05/04/2007 £379,950 72, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 02/05/2007 £379,950 23, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 12/06/2007 £354,950 21, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 05/07/2007 £359,950 29, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 17/08/2007 £375,000 9, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 12/10/2007 £362,500 51, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 13/02/2008 £365,000 18, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 29/08/2008 £365,000 42, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 22/10/2008 £345,000 3, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AW 14/07/2009 £302,500 88, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP 23/07/2009 £310,000 58, Beaconsfield Road, Surbiton, Greater London, KT5 9AP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobby9983 Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Nothing selling + No reductions = Stagnation As other poster has noted the 4 D's will barely move the market. Until interest rates rise and then people will be forced to sell. For a true insight into the Psyche of an in denial homeowner watch the program House Swap on BBC 1. The most recent episode showed a young couple looking to trade up. They were quite happy to accept a 10k knock down from their initial asking price of 190k. When the older lady in her detached house was asked to knock a bit off her asking price - around 5% - she said she would never sell. In my opinion that's where the problem lies, the baby boomer generation is sat on a mass of unrealised equity and bugger them if they are going to accept their property has dropped a penny from 2007 as a £20k drop for them means about 40 missed holidays in their retirement. The greedy gets won't stand for it. Screw you younger generation, we've completely cocked the world up, taken all the oil, made sure we screwed all your pensions just after we took our nice defined benefits and now we want you to pay ridiculous prices for our houses even though there's no way you can afford unless you take out a whopping great big mortgage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver lining Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 The one property per month per agent that is selling and selling at 2006 levels I assume are ONLY selling at 2006 levels because the buyers do not need a large mortgage, or are the articles wrong that keep informing us that valuations are coming in 25 % + under peak resulting in chains breaking? I have seen posts stating EA's only sell one property per month. But I haven't seen any evidence supporting that claim. Chains breaking is an easy claim to make as there is no data to refute it. There are certainly some chains breaking, but I suspect not so many as some would wish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juvenal Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 i posted the message below yesterday, 100 people have viewed it, but no one responded to it....but i think it's a measure of whatis actually happening in the real worldthe data below is for a road near me, in surbiton, greater london all the houses are identical victorian semi's.....no scope for loft conversions, no planning allowed for rear extensions.....most have been bought/renovated/sold in the last 10 years. it's the sort of place people move to for 3 years and then move on (as i did) sure, some are in better nick than others....but they are all the same size, same location, etc etc etc given the similarity in houses and the number of sales, i think this makes for a very good sample to look at real house price change Good post jmzr Detail like this is a lot more valuable than generalised comment. This echoes what I am seeing around me in m bit of the Bournemouth area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Don't Surf Posted September 3, 2009 Author Share Posted September 3, 2009 I guess to rephrase the question. What have the previous triggers been? IRs? Hopefully that isn't the only cause as we may be stuck in purgatory for a long time waiting for that. Another thing I'm noticing is a wide variance in pricing, i.e. 25% range of prices for similar properties in the same streets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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