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Oecd: Uk Economy Will Contract By 1.0% In Q3

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Christ, I thought that read 10%!! Which it probably will!

What is it somebody posted... 1 million counts as 12 days. 1 trillion counts as several thousand years? Several thousand year RECOVEREH!!

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Guest The Relaxation Suite
How can they spend that much money and not get some growth????

This is the salient point. Billions and billions and billions of pounds bought a 1% contraction in Q3. Excellent.

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How can they spend that much money and not get some growth????

they need to spend a bit more...and perhaps sell a couple of eurofighters. thatll fix it.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite
So 09Q3: -1%; 09Q4 0%; then "The UK Economy will be growing by the end of the year" as Darling said last week.

But for how long?

The UK economy is a long-term basket case. Its oil is gone, it imports fuel from failed states like Russia and Libya, and it is chronically overpopulated. Its manufacturing is totally debased, unemployment is going to the moon, and a Labour Government have bungled the eoncomy so badly it has had to cut welfare payments, of all things. The housing market is half way through a 50% wipeout and the average citizen is about to experience an eye-watering increase in taxation that will last for the rest of his life, and that of his children. I fail to see how anyone can believe there is a recovery imminent and a year of yet more partying to come.

I remain unmoved by talk of recovery.

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Did Darling predict "growth" by Q4 2009? :unsure:

Mr Speaker, UK GDP contracted by 0.5 per cent in the three months to September.

And growth this year is forecast to be ¾ per cent, which reflects a further fall in output in the fourth quarter of this year.

The IMF is forecasting that the US, Germany, Japan, France, Italy – as well as the UK – will all contract next year as a result of weak consumer spending and business investment.

I, too, am forecasting that output will continue to fall in the UK, for the first two quarters of next year.

But then, because of decisions taken in this Pre-Budget Report, I expect it to start to recover.

GDP growth for 2009 is forecast to be between –¾ per cent and –1 ¼ per cent.

Mr Speaker, inflation is forecast to come down sharply, reaching ½ per cent by the end of next year.

Lower commodity prices and lower interest rates, which boost incomes and help business profits, together with the fiscal reaction across the world, will also help.

As an open and flexible economy, the UK is well positioned to benefit from this recovery.

As a result, and as the world economy recovers from the credit crunch, the UK will begin to grow again.

So I am forecasting growth of between 1 ½ and 2 per cent in 2010.

In the years after that, the economy will continue to recover.

Trend output – or the productive potential of the economy – will initially fall.

But in future years, the economy will recover towards a rate of trend growth of around 2 ¾ per cent.

Pre-Budget Report statement to the House of Commons, delivered by the Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer

Edited by Concrete Jungle

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They will be utterly crapping themselves if the Germans, French etc cut stimulus because (i) Britain will lose some of the export boost that their spending provides, and (ii) they will lose the fig leaf that everyone's doing it and we're all in the sh1t together.

If we stay in decline while others are out of it - no matter what we long term bears think of the robustness of their recovery - this could be utterly catastrophic for Crash Gordon and Cap'n Darling. Even the Beeb will round on them if that happens.

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How can they spend that much money and not get some growth????

Lots of it is probably being used to prop up our bankrupt banks behind the scenes.

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Did Darling predict "growth" by Q4 2009? :unsure:

At the END of.

Mr Darling said that he was happy to stick by his prediction that there would be growth in the economy at the end of the year.

LINK.

ED: quote tags, not bold!

Edited by yellerkat

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So 09Q3: -1%; 09Q4 0%; then "The UK Economy will be growing by the end of the year" as Darling said last week.

But for how long?

Growth based on what? Borrowing money off of others to spend on ourselves??

The economic imbalances which exist have not been fixed. Until they do we are all on a downward trajectory.

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At the END of.

LINK.

ED: quote tags, not bold!

In the pre budget report I had in mind he said.

I, too, am forecasting that output will continue to fall in the UK, for the first two quarters of next year.

But then, because of decisions taken in this Pre-Budget Report, I expect it to start to recover.

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oecdgrowth010909.gif

Thank you FT, I love that chart - it's the perfect demonstration of the current imbalances within the Eurozone.

At one end of the spectrum you have Germany and France with positive projected growth, at the other Italy (and the other PIIGS) with negative projected growth.

Is that what the single currency was supposed to achieve? :rolleyes:

Ties in nicely with recent Eurostat figures showing evidence that as of the end of last year, Germany was the only major economy within the Eurozone to have benefited from the single currency in terms of competitiveness.

See my thread on this topic in the Economics subforum.

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they need to spend a bit more...and perhaps sell a couple of eurofighters. thatll fix it.

.....'scrappage' is guaranteed to be extended, no need to hurry down to the Hyundai shop just yet.

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It's an upward revision.

OECD thinks outlook is much improved.

oecdgrowth010909.gif

oecdgrowth010909b.gif

All this graph tells me is that the OECD do not have a clue what they are predicting. As the graph illustatres they change thier mind every month. Why are they right now when they have been so wrong in the past.

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How can they spend that much money and not get some growth????

Because we haven't increased debt by a big enough amount.

No wonder we had Darling bleating on about the G20 need to uphold the 1tr bailout package, without it the UK appears to be screwed.

Gordon Brown the man who saved the world but destroyed the UK.

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Thank you FT, I love that chart - it's the perfect demonstration of the current imbalances within the Eurozone.

At one end of the spectrum you have Germany and France with positive projected growth, at the other Italy (and the other PIIGS) with negative projected growth.

Is that what the single currency was supposed to achieve? :rolleyes:

Ties in nicely with recent Eurostat figures showing evidence that as of the end of last year, Germany was the only major economy within the Eurozone to have benefited from the single currency in terms of competitiveness.

See my thread on this topic in the Economics subforum.

There are no structural imbalances just harmonization.

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Because we haven't increased debt by a big enough amount.

No wonder we had Darling bleating on about the G20 need to uphold the 1tr bailout package, without it the UK appears to be screwed.

Gordon Brown the man who saved the world but destroyed the UK.

Give him time IRRO, when we get rid of him he will be looking for a new big Job at the IMF or the World bank. The rest of the world is quaking in thier boots at the prospect.

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