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eric pebble

Uk Property To Halve Between Now And July 29, 2010

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Not according to BBC London just now.

Three "property experts" interviewed - all estate agents.

Shortage of properties in Notting Hill.

Three to four buyers for every house.

Boom conditions, sealed bids! :lol:

Featured a map showing HPI - but ignored the falling boroughs.

The BBC - Property Ramping is what do

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All potential buyers - read this first!!

UK Property to HALVE Between Now and July 29, 2010

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page...2147066252&

The page quotes May figures so i presume it was written then, prices went up June,July,August and probably will go up this month too. That leaves 10 months for a 55% fall? Average price from 160K down to just 75K by the middle of next..

I hope it happens so Labour get wipedout in the General Election, but i reckon prices are going to be higher in July 2010 than they were in May 2009.

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Come off it eric, even you can't believe in 50% falls in under 12 months.

but it isn't under 12 months this all began late07 early 08, so by the time we get to july 10 it would have been going on for 30 months they are saying that the govt have done their best but the s**t is about to hit the fan, this would have happen months ago if the govt had not meddled with the economy , because they did it is going to go on longer and cost us alot more

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I think the amount of patience people is very telling. You can't really expect 6-7 years or even more of lunacy to be resolved in 1-2 years. Some people are exasperated at the problem which leads me to believe that this recession will span out over 5 years or more Japanese style until people realise that houses are for living in and not for speculation. It's not something that can be achieved in a short space of time and it will annoy a lot of people who think it should happen overnight. There are many factors involved and quantitative easing is one of them. The bull trap will play out but for longer than any bear might believe possible. Everyone is looking for the market to go south. Guess which way it will go? Let's look at 2013 for when prices might become affordable again and 2015 for a buy-now-or-regret-later scenario. Anything under this is wishful thinking.

PS. I bought in May 2009 at a 30% discount and expect things to get worse than that across the board. No VI intended!

Edited by adamLancs

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And they would still be above long term averages.

What is clear to me now is the only thing keeping prices from tanking is interest rates. Not interest rates on new lending, purely rates on purchases from a couple of years ago. Should they rise 50% down will be conservative. Very conservative.

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PS. I bought in May 2009 at a 30% discount and expect things to get worse than that across the board. No VI intended!

congrats. But i hardly think the bit i've bolded to be at all true. If you really DO think that, then your may 2009 at 30% off purchase could only have been luck rather than judgement.

The rest of your post is just yet more meaningless predictions with the usual reference of select years in the 2010's where house prices will double/halve/return to 2007 peaks* for good measure. Oh so tiresom and becoming a bit

too mystic meg for me. You bought at the right time at the right price. Your predictions aren't worth a damn imho.

*delete as appropriate depending on bias.

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This is possible if interest rates rose to 10% or more because of a bond market problem or the uk needing an IMF loan down they go think 100k mortgage @ 5% is 5k and thats fine and 10k repayment at 10% if people cant service their debts and loads of forclosed props hit the market with no buyers will their you go interest rates make or break house prices but for me they will go up bit more then start falling in 2010 maybe at single didgit levels and inflation does the rest and when all said and done a 30 to 50% downside is possible but for me it will be a few years off to go through its resetting hopefully

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The article is exactly what cgnao* has been saying for years. Although it seems unrealistic, it seems alot more realistic now than it did two years ago, you have to admit.

*cgnao was a regular member here and was mocked for his wild predictions of bank collapse followed by hyperinflation. He warned those who listened to protect themselves by buying gold. See this posting from 2004 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showth...highlight=cgnao

Edited by endgame

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Oh, FFS, I wish people would stop posting those Moneyweek "BUY OUR NEWSLETTER NOW TO AVOID THE FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT WEEK, FREE TRIAL!!!" articles...

..as if they were actually serious articles.

I've seen a couple of equally stupid ones from that same site posted up and it's all a load of crap designed to panic people into buying their rag.

No different to the dodgy online pages that offer "HOW I MADE A MILLION POUNDS IN 10 WEEKS AND 10 EASY STEPS SECRETS GUIDE ONLY $89.95!!!!"

That article should be treated with the same derision as the Daily Express headlines claiming 300% HPI in the next 5 years. I can't believe some people on here are letting their bearish outlook get in the way of seeing complete drivel for what it is.

House prices halving in a single year is not going to happen. 2-3 years would be the absolute minimum.

Edited by DementedTuna

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House prices halving in a single year is not going to happen. 2-3 years would be the absolute minimum.

I agree, this is another fanciful HPC post.

Even if unemployment hits 20%, it is not going to create that many forced sellers to suddenly knock 50% off prices. People who can survive on savings or a single salary instead of two are not going to rush to sell their house for half what it was worth a few months previously.

No one is arguing that house prices are over-valued and are likely to come down more, but I think that the next stage of the crash will not happen much faster than the falls we saw in 2008. I don't mind being proved wrong, though!

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I agree, this is another fanciful HPC post.

Even if unemployment hits 20%, it is not going to create that many forced sellers to suddenly knock 50% off prices. People who can survive on savings or a single salary instead of two are not going to rush to sell their house for half what it was worth a few months previously[/b].

No one is arguing that house prices are over-valued and are likely to come down more, but I think that the next stage of the crash will not happen much faster than the falls we saw in 2008. I don't mind being proved wrong, though!

i) The UK doesn't have enough savings to cover this.

ii) People will sell at any cost to eat. :ph34r:

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The article is exactly what cgnao* has been saying for years. Although it seems unrealistic, it seems alot more realistic now than it did two years ago, you have to admit.

*cgnao was an idiot

I don't think it is more realistic. The crash has been halted. What is going to fire it off again?

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I don't think it is more realistic. The crash has been halted. What is going to fire it off again?

Public spending cuts, higher taxes and higher interest rates

All three are absolute certainties, its just a question of when they kick off ;)

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That artical was ramping in the extreme. What a ludicrous prediction with nothing at all to back it up. They have got to be VIs, have they got a book or something to sell? It is so obvious and only those who have applied to the Nigerian lottery (rolled over again dont you know) will be buying whatever they have to sell.

If it isnt an EA saying there are 5 reasons prices must go up there is some bookseller saying there are 5 reasons prices must fall (by 50% overnight to get idiots interested)

I really do not mind these sort of OTT statements if they at least have at least one decent arguement why it may happen.

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It's one extreme to another. Property prices are very over-valued still. However, the snake in the grass is high interest rates. This will be the deal breaker (or maker) which ever side you sit on.

There are deals to be made though. I have seen 8-12% rental returns on some properties. When to buy is only right for the person inolved in the deal. I doubt there will be a 50% decrease but then, in 2007, a 20% decline seemed unlikely.

One thing is for certain. This cycle of boom and bust will repeat itself because that's how the system is designed. In the UK, property prices either go up or down. They do not linger.

There is no specific 'bottom'.

For example, if I found a plot that returned anything over 8%, whether it be today, 2001,2007 or 2030, and could afford it, I would consider it.

No-one is going to sell whilst rates are this low. Rates will remain low until real inflation becomes unbearable for the administrators.

The question is:

What will rise first- interest rates or property prices?

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Even in this forum it's hard to find anybody that will support this prediction. I'm firmly of the opinion that house prices will be virtually stagnant over the next few years. It's what happened in the early 90's and it's what will happen again over the next 5+ years.

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There's nobody that wants property to come down more than me.

.......and i believe prices will start dropping again soon.

But 50% by next July get real !!

It ain't gonna happen, and we lose all credibility by posting stuff like this.

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OK that article was just a sales pitch.

I do however think there is a simple condition which would produce that kind of drop in prices. What if none of the banks or building societies could lend at all? Due to crippling losses combined with state bankruptcy. You could only pay the full value in cash - surely that would produce those sort of falls?

Just a thought. <_<

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I think everyone is forgetting about the value of money. As the government increases Quantitative Easing the value of money is diluted and is worth less and less. If £1 today is worth £2 of tomorrow's money then if house prices stay the same they will have fallen by 50% relative to... Look what happened to Zimbabwe's Quantitative Easing. You could only buy three eggs for 100 Trillion Dollars. If hyper-inflation kicks in it will be savers who get punished not house buyers.

Edited by caparn

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