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The Masked Tulip

Warning As House Market Recovers

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http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/southwal...il/article.html

A CAUTIOUS approach to the housing market is what is needed to ensure its absolute recovery, says a leading Swansea estate agent.

Christopher Hope, senior partner with Dawsons, made the comments after it emerged house prices had increased again in August for the fourth month in a row.

.....

But the market's tentative recovery could be stopped in an instant, warned Mr Hope, if buyers and sellers believed the market was back at its peak.

Mr Hope said: "We've seen a steady, slow, rise in the degree of optimism from buyers, and the realistic understanding of vendors in setting their prices.

"If prices go up quickly, that will shut the door on the market once again." The Council of Mortgage Lenders also reported a 26 per cent rise in mortgage lending in July to its highest level for nine months, as buyers continued to return to the market.

The ongoing problems in the mortgage market are also continuing to limit the number of people getting onto the housing ladder, despite some recent signs that lenders are beginning to loosen their lending criteria.

Mr Hope added: "Funding is still difficult to get. Base rates at the moment might be very low, but over the next couple of years it has been discussed that they might go back to two, three or even five per cent. So if you've taken a mortgage out at three per cent above base it might be half a per cent now, but in a couple of years it could be at eight per cent.

"Between 50 and 60 per cent of transactions we've seen are by cash buyers, or by those who require a mortgage of less than 60 per cent."

Mr Hope said he hoped to see buyers returning to the market after the Christmas hiatus, because that would indicate a continuation of hope for the market's ultimate recovery. "Slow but consistent improvement is what we want to see in the next 12 months," he added.

I am quite stunned by these comments on the front and second pages of the Swansea main paper today - this local EA chain, I think it is fair to say, have been very bullish about house prices in the Swansea are so such a public display of caution is interesting... or am I just reading between the lines?

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I am quite stunned by these comments on the front and second pages of the Swansea main paper today - this local EA chain, I think it is fair to say, have been very bullish about house prices in the Swansea are so such a public display of caution is interesting... or am I just reading between the lines?

They're protecting their own interests. They need to sell houses and they know that when the cash buyers have gone.... who's left?

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An Ea which doesn't want prices to shoot back up. :blink:

This recession really is turning the brains of some to jelly.

all this cautious optimism balls smacks of people who know exactly where the market is headed over the next 12 months but don't want to be too bullish in the slim chance that we get a next leg down.

It's a bit like puposefully downplaying your chances of getting an A* in the hope/expectation that you will get an A* in your exams. That's all that matters to these clowns, not ftb affordabiltiy or sustainability of the housing market, but cashing in on the next housing bubble which criminally low IR's are brewing.

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The Cambrian News (North and Mid Wales publication) last week had an article from an estate agent saying how well property was doing in Ceredigion. Basically plug for a local estate agent with no real facts or figures at all. Aren't local papers great.....

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Was down in Swansea on Saturday, and driving past the SA1 development, there looks to be a lot of empty office buildings and flats.

Caution required indeed....

Loads of small shops, garages, businesses at folding in S'sea.

I was looking at the commercial section in a local EA office today and there were, amongst all the shops up for sale or empty with leases up for offer, several stalls in Swansea Market - one of the largest in the UK and for decades a gold-mine nigh on impossible to obtain a stall there - up for sale. Says it all really.

It is a good idea to keep an eye on the commercial property in your own area as it is a superb indicator of the local business community - if the local business-people are letting the leases go or are putting shops up for sale then they are doing so as people are not spending... and sooner or later that affects local house prices.

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