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Realistbear

O E C D : Prices Still Falling As Deflation Gathers Pace

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01092009/323/oecd-...s-0-6-july.html

Tuesday September 1, 11:52 AM

OECD says consumer prices down 0.6% in July

PARIS (AFP) - Consumer prices in the world's leading industrialised countries fell 0.6 percent in July compared with the same month last year, the OECD said Tuesday.

Prices on an annual basis had declined 0.1 percent in June in the 30 members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Compared with June prices in July were down 0.2 percent.

Prices in annual terms fell 0.7 percent in July in the eurozone after a fall of 0.1 percent in June, 2.1 percent in the United States after a decline of 1.4 percent in the year to June and 2.2 percent in Japan after an annual fall of 1.8 percent in June.

1. Suck 50TR out of the system and the bubble:

a. INflates

b. DEflates

2. When house prices fall and unemployment rises the econmy is most likely to:

a. INflate

b. DEflate

3. If you have invested in metals that are seen as a hedge against inflation and the economy appears to be deflating as indicated by prices it is best, in relation to gold, to:

a. Buy more.

b. Sell what you have.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01092009/323/oecd-...s-0-6-july.html

Tuesday September 1, 11:52 AM

OECD says consumer prices down 0.6% in July

PARIS (AFP) - Consumer prices in the world's leading industrialised countries fell 0.6 percent in July compared with the same month last year, the OECD said Tuesday.

Prices on an annual basis had declined 0.1 percent in June in the 30 members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Compared with June prices in July were down 0.2 percent.

Prices in annual terms fell 0.7 percent in July in the eurozone after a fall of 0.1 percent in June, 2.1 percent in the United States after a decline of 1.4 percent in the year to June and 2.2 percent in Japan after an annual fall of 1.8 percent in June.

1. Suck 50TR out of the system and the bubble:

a. INflates

b. DEflates

2. When house prices fall and unemployment rises the econmy is most likely to:

a. INflate

b. DEflate

3. If you have invested in metals that are seen as a hedge against inflation and the economy appears to be deflating as indicated by prices it is best, in relation to gold, to:

a. Buy more.

b. Sell what you have.

RB: You have been suckered into the central bank lie that somehow, inflation and recession are mutually exclusive.

This is nonsense, go and check every recession we ever had (in paper money) and you will see that exactly the opposite is true.

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Can't say I've been too impressed by all this 'deflation' we're allegedly having .... petrol at silly prices, food ever more expensive, house prices rising again, commodities booming, stock markets rising strongly. Not many knock-on real world signs of deflation.

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RB: You have been suckered into the central bank lie that somehow, inflation and recession are mutually exclusive.

This is nonsense, go and check every recession we ever had (in paper money) and you will see that exactly the opposite is true.

If (if) the global trend is falling prices it points to deflation. If prices begin to rise it will be inflation. Deflation is a Japanese phenomena in recent times that I believe we are about to experience--and for the same reasons--an overinflated housing market that collpases leaving huge black holes to fill.

Falling prices and inflation do not together go. I remember the dark days of the 70's when inflation was rampant and noticed prices were rising.

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Can't say I've been too impressed by all this 'deflation' we're allegedly having .... petrol at silly prices, food ever more expensive, house prices rising again, commodities booming, stock markets rising strongly. Not many knock-on real world signs of deflation.

Unemployment will pull it all down.

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If (if) the global trend is falling prices it points to deflation. If prices begin to rise it will be inflation. Deflation is a Japanese phenomena in recent times that I believe we are about to experience--and for the same reasons--an overinflated housing market that collpases leaving huge black holes to fill.

Falling prices and inflation do not together go. I remember the dark days of the 70's when inflation was rampant and noticed prices were rising.

can you please show me all these fallng prices RB because, quite frankly, i am not seeing it!

it costs more to live today. are you blind?

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RB, how does that work exactly?

People without jobs spend less. Lower demand leads to lower prices. Throw in tight credit, global contraction in demand for our exports, high levels of personal and government debt and, Voila! Lower prices.

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Can't say I've been too impressed by all this 'deflation' we're allegedly having .... petrol at silly prices, food ever more expensive, house prices rising again, commodities booming, stock markets rising strongly. Not many knock-on real world signs of deflation.

My diet of ipods and memory sticks is not helping my indigestion. <_<

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People without jobs spend less. Lower demand leads to lower prices. Throw in tight credit, global contraction in demand for our exports, high levels of personal and government debt and, Voila! Lower prices.

your argment lacks a supply side consideration.

we have been in recession (some say depression) for a while now. unemployment has been soaring for some time so my question to you is this:

WHERE ARE THESE FALLING PRICES?

until i see this, i will not be selling gold.

Edited by Where is my pen?

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In a recession with massive job losses they (Brown and crew) might try to stick it to the public by raising taxes on petrol but people will just use less and the net effect is the same as a price drop.

I have noticed most of the restaurants around here cutting prices-- 6.45 for a two course meal at some decent restaurants (Pinnochios, Prezo etc.).

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, the full effects are months away from being felt in the broader economy. If credit is tight and jobs are gone the prices will tumble as the OECD data seems to demonstrate.

Edited by Realistbear

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01092009/325/impac...low-demand.html

Impact of strikes on platinum offset by slow demand

By Jan Harvey and Veronica Brown - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - A persistent lack of demand for autocatalyst material platinum could push the market into surplus this year even with the prospect of supply disruption from strike-hit number one global producer South Africa.

Prices of platinum -- also used in jewellery -- have barely budged despite news of strikes at two Impala Platinum mines , the dismissal of almost 4,000 striking contract workers at Aquarius Platinum and Anglo Platinum staff rejecting a wage offer.

Precious metals at this stage in the economic collapse might not be the best thing.

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In a recession with massive job losses they (Brown and crew) might try to stick it to the public by raising taxes on petrol but people will just use less and the net effect is the same as a price drop.

I have noticed most of the restaurants around here cutting prices-- 6.45 for a two course meal at some decent restaurants (Pinnochios, Prezo etc.).

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, the full effects are months away from being felt in the broader economy. If credit is tight and jobs are gone the prices will tumble as the OECD data seems to demonstrate.

In a recession with massive job losses they (Brown and crew) might try to stick it to the public by raising taxes on petrol but people will just use less and the net effect is the same as a price drop.

no it is not. if prices dropped i would advantage from it.

I have noticed most of the restaurants around here cutting prices-- 6.45 for a two course meal at some decent restaurants (Pinnochios, Prezo etc.).

that is not my experience. prices have gone up at my local indian restaurants, at pizzahut and dominoes. perhaps i am unlucky in my personal tastes.

(PS i doubt £6.45 for a two course meal would ever be offered by a 'decent' restaurant)

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, the full effects are months away from being felt in the broader economy. If credit is tight and jobs are gone the prices will tumble as the OECD data seems to demonstrate.

:lol: If unemployment is a lagging indicator, then surely these elusive price falls should have been here a long time ago ?

Edited by Where is my pen?

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where is the deflation guys? come on, we are over a year into this and still prices are going up. we have not even felt the consequences of a near doubling of the money supply yet either.

what comes of this 100% debt to gdp ration? does that give sterling a boost at some stage ????

oh please!

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RB: You have been suckered into the central bank lie that somehow, inflation and recession are mutually exclusive.

This is nonsense, go and check every recession we ever had (in paper money) and you will see that exactly the opposite is true.

Almost every recession under fiat money has been accompanied by falling inflation.

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In a recession with massive job losses they (Brown and crew) might try to stick it to the public by raising taxes on petrol but people will just use less and the net effect is the same as a price drop.

I have noticed most of the restaurants around here cutting prices-- 6.45 for a two course meal at some decent restaurants (Pinnochios, Prezo etc.).

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, the full effects are months away from being felt in the broader economy. If credit is tight and jobs are gone the prices will tumble as the OECD data seems to demonstrate.

Inflation and higher prices are not synonymous.

Increased tax on petrol, for example, leads to higher prices but takes money out of circulation and is therefore deflationary. That is why some people prefer to measure the money in circulation.

It seems that this is indeed down due to credit destruction outpacing QE but credit destruction will stop one day whereas QE will probably not.

One also needs to look at local problems if one lives in the UK. The UK is uniquely placed to weather this recession, ie placed uniquely badly, and while the world may see dropping prices in a depression, a run on Sterling would increase prices in the UK. For that reason I am hanging on to gold.

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where is the deflation guys? come on, we are over a year into this and still prices are going up. we have not even felt the consequences of a near doubling of the money supply yet either.

what comes of this 100% debt to gdp ration? does that give sterling a boost at some stage ????

oh please!

the deflation is in the slow down of money movement.. thats why QE is there...to ensure banks have sufficient money to cover their commitments.

QE is a major counter to deflation in the street....just not enough banks are going bust.

rises in restaurants are down to currency fluctuation. a 25% fall in the pound is going to trump a 5% deflation any day....for now.

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Personally I see inflation of direct imports, this is due to the weakening pound. Everything else is going down fast, all the s*****y restaurants in my area are offering 3-course deals, £5 deals etc. Every tradesman and service can be bargained down hard and shops are closing every day.

Oil will be the pain point because the QE is being used to bubble commodities.

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And yet strangely, the prices all around seem to be rising: food, petrol, the stuff people actually buy.

Also government spending is rising quite dramtically.

Also printing money must devalue it - which is inflation by a different name and smelling equally odious.

Check out this table of govt tax and spend and draw your own conclusions...

tmp.jpg

It's from here.

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And yet strangely, the prices all around seem to be rising: food, petrol, the stuff people actually buy.

Also government spending is rising quite dramtically.

Also printing money must devalue it - which is inflation by a different name and smelling equally odious.

Check out this table of govt tax and spend and draw your own conclusions...

tmp.jpg

It's from here.

These people are of a fixed mindset (bit like people trying to sell properties)

There is little point in trying to point to the obvious, they refute it out of hand. As far as they are concerned, in our over populated resource scarce world, our toilet paper notes will become a very valuable commidity, regardless of how much of it our goverment prints.

It's insane, but there it is.

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These people are of a fixed mindset (bit like people trying to sell properties)

There is little point in trying to point to the obvious, they refute it out of hand. As far as they are concerned, in our over populated resource scarce world, our toilet paper notes will become a very valuable commidity, regardless of how much of it our goverment prints.

It's insane, but there it is.

Just checked out the price of gold in Yen over the last decade in which Japan has seen deflation. The price has gone from 30,000Y/oz to 90,000y/oz in the last 10 years.

Looks like the inverse relationship between deflation and gold price didn't apply in our best example of a prolonged deflation.

Granted that it could be different in global deflation but we haven't got that if you consider asset prices in China.

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Gold wakes up from its summer rest and steams toward $1000 and realist bear starts a gold bashing thread disguised as a deflation thread.

Gold does it's own thing - it has a history of preserving wealth in economic disasters. we have such a disaster ahead IMHO

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