Dave Spart Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 From the Sky website: Link 2:31pm UK, Monday August 31, 2009 House price rises in small pockets of the country are creating an illusion of a recovery in the market, a property intelligence group has warned. Hometrack said talk of green shoots should only be taken at "face value". Several recent sets of data have suggested that the housing market is on the up. Figures from the Nationwide and Land Registry suggested house prices rose 1.6% in August and 1.7% during July. But Hometrack cautioned that a shortage of properties in London and the South East had skewed the figures. Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, said: "Taken at face value these headline results provide further support to talk of the green shoots of recovery. "They suggest that after seven consecutive months of rising demand, agents and surveyors now believe that prices can be pushed upwards without any detrimental impact on sales volumes. "But dig beneath the headlines and the reality is quite different. "The results of the survey show that far from a national housing market on the up, the headline figures are being distorted by price rises that are restricted to small pockets of the market suffering from a lack of housing for sale - primarily London and the South East." House prices edged ahead by 0.1% during August, Hometrack said. The group said price rises were seen in only 11% of postcode districts across England and Wales, with London and the South East accounting for three-quarters of these areas, while prices remained static in the remaining 89% of the country. London, the South East and East Anglia were also the only regions of the country to see price rises during the month, with London reporting the biggest gain of 0.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the wizard Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 From the Sky website:Link Isn't this, you know, significant or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Spart Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Isn't this, you know, significant or something? I thought so, that's why I posted it. To me its confirmation that the current feelgood-factor is based on cherry-picked data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 I noticed the AVERAGE house price for the Land Registry was above 3 bed semi and below detached.... I suspect that expensive sales are skewing the figures...this will lead to higher resistance to accepting lower bids on the sellers side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Isn't this, you know, significant or something? Only if you care about the sample size - vast majority of borrowers in this country don't know how to work out their mortgage payments with statistical sampling being close to rocket science for them Ignorance of STRs jumping back in is astonishing Easy win - easy loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lone_Twin Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Only if you care about the sample size - vast majority of borrowers in this country don't know how to work out their mortgage payments with statistical sampling being close to rocket science for themIgnorance of STRs jumping back in is astonishing Easy win - easy loss If I was sitting on an STR fund the medium term inflation risk might be enough to make me part with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 "The results of the survey show that far from a national housing market on the up, the headline figures are being distorted by price rises that are restricted to small pockets of the market suffering from a lack of housing for sale - primarily London and the South East." What many of us have been bleating on about for ages while the bulls having been getting moist... Pity the fools who piled in thinking we've just hit the bottom: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 ...surely the market is recovering ...it is finding the real value in an environment not bloated by fraud, lax lending, selling-on bad debt and ideas of 'investment in property' .........yes the spiral of downward prices will continue until the market recovers to a realistic position.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 (edited) If I was sitting on an STR fund the medium term inflation risk might be enough to make me part with it. Oh, please, not the same crappy story again a pile of bricks and mortar in a god forsaken country is not necessarily the best and most certainly not the only available option to get rid of your cash Edited August 31, 2009 by threetimesdead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonic the Hedge Fund Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Isn't this, you know, significant or something? Significant in that Hometrack provide the valuations for 4/5 of UK mortgages IMO Hometrack provides the most accurate price model for individual properties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim B. Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 What many of us have been bleating on about for ages while the bulls having been getting moist...Pity the fools who piled in thinking we've just hit the bottom: Love your additions to the chart. The way the economy is, it can be the only logical conclusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barb E Dahl Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Shortage of properties in the South East!? What a joke! Anyone who lives in these woods, knows what is really going down at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lone_Twin Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Oh, please, not the same crappy story againa pile of bricks and mortar in a god forsaken country is not necessarily the best and most certainly not the only available option to get rid of your cash True but if you were going to continue to live in the UK (for whatever reason) there is a great deal of utility value in a house. (More so than gold) and more security than shares or other items. Im an FTB and I'm waiting as I calculate the inflation risk to my deposit is offset by the potential falls in prices. This calculation will be different depending on individual circumstance. Your own admission that many STRs are "caving in" proves that you should not dismiss this so lightly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barb E Dahl Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Im an FTB and I'm waiting as I calculate the inflation risk to my deposit is offset by the potential falls in prices. This calculation will be different depending on individual circumstance. Your own admission that many STRs are "caving in" proves that you should not dismiss this so lightly. Fair do's Super Ted. You may have a point there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threetimesdead Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 (edited) True but if you were going to continue to live in the UK (for whatever reason) there is a great deal of utility value in a house. (More so than gold) and more security than shares or other items.Im an FTB and I'm waiting as I calculate the inflation risk to my deposit is offset by the potential falls in prices. This calculation will be different depending on individual circumstance. Your own admission that many STRs are "caving in" proves that you should not dismiss this so lightly. 1. "utility value in a house" has nothing to do with owning it, owning a mortgage on it or even renting it utility value of a house is having a roof over your head that is where the confusion is 2. potential falls/rises are irrelevant here if rental income from a property covers just 40% of the INTEREST -ONLY mortgage on the same property Edited August 31, 2009 by threetimesdead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 For those than timed it just right and STR in 2007, then buying back in over the last few months after a 20% drop from peak seems good sense. But it obviously is not going to sustain a recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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