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Dave Spart

Hometrack Say Housing Market 'not Recovering'

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From the Sky website:

Link

2:31pm UK, Monday August 31, 2009

House price rises in small pockets of the country are creating an illusion of a recovery in the market, a property intelligence group has warned.

Hometrack said talk of green shoots should only be taken at "face value".

Several recent sets of data have suggested that the housing market is on the up.

Figures from the Nationwide and Land Registry suggested house prices rose 1.6% in August and 1.7% during July.

But Hometrack cautioned that a shortage of properties in London and the South East had skewed the figures.

Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research, said: "Taken at face value these headline results provide further support to talk of the green shoots of recovery.

"They suggest that after seven consecutive months of rising demand, agents and surveyors now believe that prices can be pushed upwards without any detrimental impact on sales volumes.

"But dig beneath the headlines and the reality is quite different.

"The results of the survey show that far from a national housing market on the up, the headline figures are being distorted by price rises that are restricted to small pockets of the market suffering from a lack of housing for sale - primarily London and the South East."

House prices edged ahead by 0.1% during August, Hometrack said.

The group said price rises were seen in only 11% of postcode districts across England and Wales, with London and the South East accounting for three-quarters of these areas, while prices remained static in the remaining 89% of the country.

London, the South East and East Anglia were also the only regions of the country to see price rises during the month, with London reporting the biggest gain of 0.3%.

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Isn't this, you know, significant or something?

I thought so, that's why I posted it.

To me its confirmation that the current feelgood-factor is based on cherry-picked data.

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I noticed the AVERAGE house price for the Land Registry was above 3 bed semi and below detached.... I suspect that expensive sales are skewing the figures...this will lead to higher resistance to accepting lower bids on the sellers side.

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Isn't this, you know, significant or something?

Only if you care about the sample size - vast majority of borrowers in this country don't know how to work out their mortgage payments with statistical sampling being close to rocket science for them

Ignorance of STRs jumping back in is astonishing

Easy win - easy loss

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Only if you care about the sample size - vast majority of borrowers in this country don't know how to work out their mortgage payments with statistical sampling being close to rocket science for them

Ignorance of STRs jumping back in is astonishing

Easy win - easy loss

If I was sitting on an STR fund the medium term inflation risk might be enough to make me part with it.

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"The results of the survey show that far from a national housing market on the up, the headline figures are being distorted by price rises that are restricted to small pockets of the market suffering from a lack of housing for sale - primarily London and the South East."

What many of us have been bleating on about for ages while the bulls having been getting moist...

Pity the fools who piled in thinking we've just hit the bottom:

bull_trap.jpg

<_<

post-278-1251742200_thumb.jpg

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...surely the market is recovering ...it is finding the real value in an environment not bloated by fraud, lax lending, selling-on bad debt and ideas of 'investment in property' .........yes the spiral of downward prices will continue until the market recovers to a realistic position.... <_<

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If I was sitting on an STR fund the medium term inflation risk might be enough to make me part with it.

Oh, please, not the same crappy story again

a pile of bricks and mortar in a god forsaken country is not necessarily the best and most certainly not the only available option to get rid of your cash

Edited by threetimesdead

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What many of us have been bleating on about for ages while the bulls having been getting moist...

Pity the fools who piled in thinking we've just hit the bottom:

bull_trap.jpg

<_<

:lol:

Love your additions to the chart.

The way the economy is, it can be the only logical conclusion.

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Oh, please, not the same crappy story again

a pile of bricks and mortar in a god forsaken country is not necessarily the best and most certainly not the only available option to get rid of your cash

True but if you were going to continue to live in the UK (for whatever reason) there is a great deal of utility value in a house. (More so than gold) and more security than shares or other items.

Im an FTB and I'm waiting as I calculate the inflation risk to my deposit is offset by the potential falls in prices. This calculation will be different depending on individual circumstance. Your own admission that many STRs are "caving in" proves that you should not dismiss this so lightly.

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Im an FTB and I'm waiting as I calculate the inflation risk to my deposit is offset by the potential falls in prices. This calculation will be different depending on individual circumstance. Your own admission that many STRs are "caving in" proves that you should not dismiss this so lightly.

Fair do's Super Ted. You may have a point there.

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True but if you were going to continue to live in the UK (for whatever reason) there is a great deal of utility value in a house. (More so than gold) and more security than shares or other items.

Im an FTB and I'm waiting as I calculate the inflation risk to my deposit is offset by the potential falls in prices. This calculation will be different depending on individual circumstance. Your own admission that many STRs are "caving in" proves that you should not dismiss this so lightly.

1.

"utility value in a house" has nothing to do with owning it, owning a mortgage on it or even renting it

utility value of a house is having a roof over your head

that is where the confusion is

2.

potential falls/rises are irrelevant here if rental income from a property covers just 40% of the INTEREST -ONLY mortgage on the same property

Edited by threetimesdead

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For those than timed it just right and STR in 2007, then buying back in over the last few months after a 20% drop from peak seems good sense.

But it obviously is not going to sustain a recovery.

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