council dweller Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Well, if it was my money, the fact that their YoY exports for July were -36.5% would be a more significant consideration..... Oh yes but imports were down 40%. As Micawber would have said; exports down 36.5% but imports down 40%....result happiness. Yen versus Pound? Who you kidding!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 (edited) This was priced in before the recession when stock markets dived and the Yen fell back following an earlier surges. The latest news seem to be Global recovery with the UK and US lagging and Japan coming out of recession. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asbi_l0tjZY8 Imports of refined copper fell 23 percent in July from the previous month. Coal shipments shrank 13 percent, customs data show Once again the BDI is telling us everything we need to know. Retail volumes during the non-denominational holiday binge-borrowing season will be down again over last year's numbers. The "recovery" is nothing more than a lump triggered by production restarts after inventories bottomed late last year (and the numbers are now telling us that production is forecast to be cut - again - to newly lower levels; so we'll see another round of destocking and attendant disemployment as this feeds through). 25% haircut to global GDP was optimistic it seems. Edited August 31, 2009 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 (edited) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asbi_l0tjZY8Once again the BDI is telling us everything we need to know. Retail volumes during the non-denominational holiday binge-borrowing season will be down again over last year's numbers. The "recovery" is nothing more than a lump triggered by production restarts after inventories bottomed late last year (and the numbers are now telling us that they're forecast to be cut - again - to newly lower levels). 25% haircut to global GDP was optimistic it seems. Sorry PM, but I think you are misusing the article a little. The fall in shipping rates by 50% is a reference to the cost of shipping dropping from $37k per day for a capesized vessels down to $18k per day due to new capacity. Yes there are some references to reduce coal and iron ore (smallish drops if they had stockpiled on low prices) and frankly the article kicks off saying how things have improved for world trade. Edited August 31, 2009 by mikelivingstone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParticleMan Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 (edited) Sorry PM, but I think you are misusing the article a little. The fall in shipping rates by 50% is a reference to the cost of shipping dropping from $37k per day for a capesized vessels down to $18k per day due to new capacity. Yes there are some references to reduce coal and iron ore (smallish drops if they had stockpiled on low prices) and frankly the article kicks off saying how things have improved for world trade. Misuse this then... (I couldn't at this stage give a crap about opinions - they're like arseholes y'know... what I do care about is numbers, and cuts to inputs is news, cuts to freight forwards is news... everything else is the history channel) ... I'll tell you what, I'll admit I'm wrong if this spread continues to widen through to year end... Deal? Edited August 31, 2009 by ParticleMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 (edited) Misuse this then... (I couldn't at this stage give a crap about opinions - they're like arseholes y'know... what I do care about is numbers, and cuts to inputs is news, cuts to freight forwards is news... everything else is the history channel) ... I'll tell you what, I'll admit I'm wrong if this spread continues to widen through to year end... Deal? PM, I don't disagree with your angle, but purely for the sake of being contrarian couldn't the increasing copper price be the leading indicator rather than the shipping costs? If there were increased demand for goods (copper) that have yet to be shipped, could this explain the low BDI? I prefer your version because it better suits my personal circumstances, but I would be interested to know why you think this could not be the case? Edit to add: 8/27/09 Shipping Co’s hiking rates:Unired Arab Shipping Company announced it is increasing rates from the Far East to Arabian Gulf and Indian subcontinent ports. Emirates shipping line has announced rate increases on cargo moving between Far East to the Middle East. Maersk hikes rates on full range of intra-America trades. Hapag-Lloyd hikes rates on wide range of secondary trades. Mitsui OSK Line is implementing a general rate increase on its Europe-South Africa trade. Shipping on the up? Edited August 31, 2009 by libspero Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfp123 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 shanghai stockmarket down 6.7% yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 We're screwed aren't we. This country is going to be economically devastated. That's relief as we will be paying for it. p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lufc Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 PM,I don't disagree with your angle, but purely for the sake of being contrarian couldn't the increasing copper price be the leading indicator rather than the shipping costs? If there were increased demand for goods (copper) that have yet to be shipped, could this explain the low BDI? I prefer your version because it better suits my personal circumstances, but I would be interested to know why you think this could not be the case? Edit to add: Shipping on the up? Is this about increased commodity demand or dollar demise ??????? IMHO until Western governments either pull the plug on the printing presses or an alternative means of trading is found, commodity demand and price could move further and further out of kilter. That graph looks like a good example maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 We're screwed aren't we. This country is going to be economically devastated. Already is -- and will be for YEARS to come......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockape Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 That's what I am worried about that he's "getting on with the job". The job he wasn't elected to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 Don't worry Gordon will do the right thing and save us all. Not holding my breath..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.