Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Ash4781

'the Population Of The Uk Is Ageing'

Recommended Posts

15 years from now we're presumably going to have a population consisting largely of very doddery boomers and kids aged 0-18 born to foreign-born parents, with handful of extremely hard-pressed working age taxpayers slaving to try & support them.

i do think that the price of large middle to upper middle class family houses is going to take a real hit. social-type housing for young, poor families & the elderly must be the real boom areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=949

Implications for demand in that forecast. Who's the population guru as this looks on the face of it pretty dire for the UK?

Retired people mostly live in family homes, but at some time in the future for financial or health reasons they will trade down.

Another reason why the UK is 'going Japanese'

It's something I have been banging on about for years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Retired people mostly live in family homes, but at some time in the future for financial or health reasons they will trade down.

Another reason why the UK is 'going Japanese'

It's something I have been banging on about for years

See here for my full explanation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The peak for the age group that spends the most on houses was in 2006. (Infostat graph in Agequake book).

It's all downhill from then.

I remember reading that book in 2000 and thought, I better sell before 2006, surely everyone can see this coming!

VMR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The peak for the age group that spends the most on houses was in 2006. (Infostat graph in Agequake book).

It's all downhill from then.

I remember reading that book in 2000 and thought, I better sell before 2006, surely everyone can see this coming!

VMR.

Thanks VMR

Book sounds interesting, was bang on in terms of timing

I will look it up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks VMR

Book sounds interesting, was bang on in terms of timing

The author thought everyone would see it coming and avoid spending too much on housing, knowing the old folks would have to sell up.

The author got that a bit wrong (Paul Wallace). He didnt see Gordon and Mervyn coming.

VMR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The author thought everyone would see it coming and avoid spending too much on housing, knowing the old folks would have to sell up.

The author got that a bit wrong (Paul Wallace). He didnt see Gordon and Mervyn coming.

VMR.

I think many are aware of the situation; but very few can see the correlation with the eventual outcome for housing. Most of the media debate has focused on the crisis in pensions & care; housing in this sense is not a mainstream subject.

I got very interested in the housing occupancy implications of demographics due to my local council closing primary schools. This being due to the fact that kids grow up and move on; but the parents can tie up the family home for the next 20-30 years. Hertfordshire has a particular problem with this lumpy demographic, due to the number of new towns built just after the war. Occupancy levels are shockingly low in some areas; my best guestimate is that at least 2/3 of bedrooms in my postcode are 'spare rooms' .

So it's obvious to me, but only because I have read up on the subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
?...! has cited the following a number of times:

See especially Fig 16 near the end for UK

It puts the UK peak at 2011, so this current blip shouldn't last too long, whatever Merv and Gordy come up with ;)

Peter.

Thanks for that BP

Interesting that the model seems quite accurate but heavily normalised, tending to overshoot on timing.

So we could be in the predicted slide already - check the Japanese chart in fig 13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the link:

Over the last 25 years the percentage of the population aged 65 and over increased from 15 per cent in 1983 to 16 per cent in 2008

I must confess to being underwhelmed. Is this why we people on here are constantly panicking about unaffordable pension commitments, a rise from 15 to 16% ?!

In the same period GDP must have increased by a much bigger factor (or is this a lie....?)

Get the 16.9% of workless households and 959,000 NEETS back to work and what's the problem?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we are all saved ....

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6811980.ece

A baby-boom fuelled by rising fertility rates and immigration has pushed the population of the United Kingdom to more than 61 million for the first time.

More than a quarter of a million children were born last year as fertility rates reached the highest levels in a generation, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.

The rise in births helped to increase the overall population in the country by 408,000, the biggest annual rise since Harold Macmillan was Prime Minister in 1962.

For the first time in almost a decade, population change caused by the number of births and deaths overtook immigration as the main driver of the rising numbers in the country.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Retired people mostly live in family homes, but at some time in the future for financial or health reasons they will trade down.

Another reason why the UK is 'going Japanese'

It's something I have been banging on about for years

Thats what logic suggests. Somehow though all the old and doddery in my family managed to hang onto their large family homes until they died. At which point the homes just get passed down and rented out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thats what logic suggests. Somehow though all the old and doddery in my family managed to hang onto their large family homes until they died. At which point the homes just get passed down and rented out.

No, the large family homes could well be filling up with the younger generations that have no hope in buying and weighed up it is not worth renting...then the older generation can keep an eye on the younger children and in turn they will later keep an eye on them. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   296 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.