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STRLondon

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You have your real and nominal the wrong way round.

Nominal will be 200K -> 130K for Halifax, more like 170K -> 100K for Nationwide.

i.e. 33% or so. Real will be 50%+ because of sterling, and a large percentage of that has already happened.

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Part of me things Nominally house prices wont go down that much, not as far as the graph says. For example, everything we import could triple in value and our house prices may only dip 10-20% more. Thats why I say nominally we might not drop off a cliff, but in real terms, it will be a real shocker.

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Part of me things Nominally house prices wont go down that much, not as far as the graph says. For example, everything we import could triple in value and our house prices may only dip 10-20% more. Thats why I say nominally we might not drop off a cliff, but in real terms, it will be a real shocker.

If import prices doubled or tripled, then who's going to have any money left to buy a house/pay a mortgage ? Wages certainly won't follow.

I suspect transactions would be in the 100s per month, not thousands.

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If import prices doubled or tripled, then who's going to have any money left to buy a house/pay a mortgage ? Wages certainly won't follow.

I suspect transactions would be in the 100s per month, not thousands.

The UK is the worlds 7th largest exporter. If GBP crashes you will find that more people would buy our exports and you would have a manufacturing lead recovery. This will cause wages to rise....

Wages and houseprices rise in zimbabwe even though there currency is crashing

Wages and houseprices rose in Argentina during the currency crash

etc etc....

People tend to buy assets with loans when they expect a currency crash...

Edited by moosetea

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The UK is the worlds 7th largest exporter. If GBP crashes you will find that more people would buy our exports and you would have a manufacturing lead recovery. This will cause wages to rise....

Wages and houseprices rise in zimbabwe even though there currency is crashing

Wages and houseprices rose in Argentina during the currency crash

etc etc....

People tend to buy assets with loans when they expect a currency crash...

I've an Argentinian friend who still has all his family back in Buenos Aires. During their crash, wages didn't rise for many workers. Quite a lot didn't get paid at all. State workers being the main victims. My friend's step-dad was an accountant and devaluation was so bad he had to take a 2nd job as a taxi driver to try to make ends meet.

As for rising house prices. Yes...but noone could afford to buy them ;)

My friend took $10,000 in cash from France to his mums (flying with it in a money belt !!). This paid off her mortgage and gave her enough monthly income to see the year out.

We might get an export led recovery in your scanario, but you can bet that the best and brightest will have already left the country. Argentina is proof of that..........

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