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Confounded

How Rattled Are The Bears

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This is a retake of the poll I ran this time last month, the results are shown below.

I am still in the Uber bear camp and nothing has shaken this, in fact a lot of the World economic data that isn't massaged by the governments is actually worse than I thought likely and still deteriorating.

Poll taken 31st July 09

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edited to add image.

Edited by Confounded

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I am convinced something BAD is coming down the pipeline, house prices IMO have no-where to go but down, the over-indebted might as well default on the loans as they will never re-coup what they borrowed if they bought in the last few years. Large scale social unrest and unemployment coming I think. The next gov. needs to lend directly to viable business?

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I am a Uber-Bear. The current system is based on debt and all the debts have been maxed out. It is impossible to borrow any more money and so the nearly 100 year cycle of debt repaying debt has finally wound to it eclipse from October 2009 - March 2010.

The Capitalist system has come to an end only Socialism can prevail and will prevail. We are part of the state and the state rules and owns supreme.

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The Capitalist system has come to an end only Socialism can prevail and will prevail. We are part of the state and the state rules and owns supreme.

Gordon, please pick up your toys and go and play with Alistair over there.

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Recent population growth trend has persauded me prices will have to soon start to rise.

I was bearish a month ago but am now a neither with a possibility of changing to bull depending on new calculations/assessment

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I have gone from solid bear to uber bear.

Many bears on here were expecting this dead cat bounce, so these figures today have come as no surprise.

But it is the rapidly worsening economic conditions, that now put me in the uber bear camp.

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I have gone from solid bear to uber bear.

Many bears on here were expecting this dead cat bounce, so these figures today have come as no surprise.

But it is the rapidly worsening economic conditions, that now put me in the uber bear camp.

What moonriver said.

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2005 - a small leg down, quickly corrected by slashing interest rates and a subprime binge

-- leading to --

2007 - banks start going bust

2008 - a bigger leg down, corrected by printing money and a state-funded binge

-- leading to --

2010? - state starts going bust

2010/11? - the biggest leg down.

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Gordon, please pick up your toys and go and play with Alistair over there.

Don't Knock the guy, He's managed to get a lot of people to jump in with THEIR cash which will help out the banks further down the line.

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uber bearish in the South East:) I think area matters.

I think people have all gone a little bit mad with the new cars and half a million is just normal for a house for people who earn £30k. My 2001 car is coming up to be scrappage - wtf.

I have lost my job and I am scratching around for income - so I am earning <£20k a year and the IT industry is a bloodbath.

Public sector have lost all their money(well some) in Icelandic investments etc.. They are all tightening their belts. Banks aren't lending on mortgages - coz they cant find people who are creditworthy enough.

Low interest rates are what are keeping us afloat at all and that is prob till the next election to make the current homeowners feel ok.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
I accidently turned a Jehovah's Witness yesterday. He said he'd rather go to hell than live in the future UK that I described.

p-o-p

Compulsory blood transfusions and a crack-down on incest?

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Compulsory blood transfusions and a crack-down on incest?

I wonder what their view of RFID injected into ones eyeball is?

BEAR

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Recent population growth trend has persauded me prices will have to soon start to rise.

I was bearish a month ago but am now a neither with a possibility of changing to bull depending on new calculations/assessment

You have fallen into the trap of believing the UK population growth of the past is normal and that it is a straight line from here.

Believe it or not certain condition can lead to rapid population falls (I am not hinting at a mass death event but emigration), I personaly believe the UK finances will lead to just that.

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Recent population growth trend has persauded me prices will have to soon start to rise.

I didn't realise that so many immigrants were wealthy enough to pay cash for their UK homes :o:blink:

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2005 - a small leg down, quickly corrected by slashing interest rates and a subprime binge

-- leading to --

2007 - banks start going bust

2008 - a bigger leg down, corrected by printing money and a state-funded binge

-- leading to --

An accurate assessment pm

Solid bear here still holding out .......

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I didn't realise that so many immigrants were wealthy enough to pay cash for their UK homes :o:blink:

The high net worth, non-dom cash buyers drove the top end which drove everything else. The EE migrants who live a few to a room are not really having much of an impact on overall market conditions.

A lot of the high net worth non-doms were bankers or Russians (who relied on very high resource prices and easy access to credit) who are going home which should push prices at the top end lower first soon to be followed by everywhere else.

My informal observation of international removals lorries in sunny NW London is that they are still only packing up houses and not unpacking at all. I haven't seen a single international removal lorry unpacking a house in my part of London for over 15 months.

Access to easy credit drove prices higher. Large bonuses drove prices higher. Britain's very competitive tax regime for non-doms drove prices higher. From what I can see, these three props to the market have been withdrawn.

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