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ScaredEitherWay

I Am Still A Bear

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So there. Not more than that to be said.

Yes it's tough holding on to your beliefs, but I do. I am a bear and I am not buying, or even looking, yet.

Be strong little bears......

Caveat: I have no idea what I am talking about, no graphs, no statistics, no economic theories, I can't refer you to any books, nor draw any parallels.... so don't follow me, I'm lost too.

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So there. Not more than that to be said.

Yes it's tough holding on to your beliefs, but I do. I am a bear and I am not buying, or even looking, yet.

Be strong little bears......

Caveat: I have no idea what I am talking about, no graphs, no statistics, no economic theories, I can't refer you to any books, nor draw any parallels.... so don't follow me, I'm lost too.

Sounds like you have hope. And you know what they say about hope.

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You're not alone. I am as bearish as ever.

:) Well, that's 2 of us ... must be loads out there today, frightened the bulls will be on their case if they stick their head above the parapet, which is what made me do it. My mischievous side.

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I'm mor bearish than I was.

I know 5 people that have lost their job this week.

They wont be buying houses.

2 are selling though !!!!

5? All in the same company?

What region? What sector?

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I'm mor bearish than I was.

I know 5 people that have lost their job this week.

They wont be buying houses.

2 are selling though !!!!

What kind of dough did they earn?

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So there. Not more than that to be said.

Yes it's tough holding on to your beliefs, but I do. I am a bear and I am not buying, or even looking, yet.

Be strong little bears......

Caveat: I have no idea what I am talking about, no graphs, no statistics, no economic theories, I can't refer you to any books, nor draw any parallels.... so don't follow me, I'm lost too.

I'll join your club.

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Pff, I don't know, the bulls who will have you believe that 2007 prices will be reached, and indeed overhauled, anytime soon are fools and/or liars, but I am starting to get a lot less sure about where significant further falls are coming from. I wonder if 10-20% off bottom in nominal terms might be sustainable for a decade or even longer, at low transaction levels, until wage inflation makes 2007 prices affordable given responsible lending... we've seen on 'property snakes and ladders' that many people are prepared to go to some pretty extreme personal lengths to avoid selling at a substantial discount below peak, maybe there are enough of these people to more or less grind housing sales down to a slow trickle...

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All you need to do is look around you at the real world to see the mess we are in. You do not need to be a financial whizz to know that if more money is going out than coming in, then you're in trouble. And just like someone who goes on a massive spending spree and then staves off the bayliffs by using credit cards, sooner or later it will catch up with you.

At the end of the day it is your life and you can decide whether you want to get up every morning knowing that you have to go to work to pay off your debt, or, keep out of debt and go out and enjoy yourself.

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All you need to do is look around you at the real world to see the mess we are in. You do not need to be a financial whizz to know that if more money is going out than coming in, then you're in trouble. And just like someone who goes on a massive spending spree and then staves off the bayliffs by using credit cards, sooner or later it will catch up with you.

At the end of the day it is your life and you can decide whether you want to get up every morning knowing that you have to go to work to pay off your debt, or, keep out of debt and go out and enjoy yourself.

Do you not think this site can over emphasize the negative though? I don't know anyone who has lost their job / home (yet). People I meet still seem happy. Is it really as bad as people think?

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It seems to me prices will fall and invested people will hurt big time, or else the institutions of the state will come under serious pressure keeping prices inflated: scared either way.

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What part of 'return to normal' do panicking bears not understand??? :rolleyes:

The fact that half of HPC's members seem convinced that HPI is back just because of 4 months of positive figures based on low volumes suggests that this really is a bull trap and that it can't be sustained much longer.

I thought the bears were all going to buy when everyone said 'don't touch property with a barge pole'... That hasn't happened at any point during this crash.

This is the return to normal, people. Prepare for FEAR and CAPITULATION when the next leg down arrives... :ph34r:

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So there. Not more than that to be said.

Yes it's tough holding on to your beliefs, but I do. I am a bear and I am not buying, or even looking, yet.

Be strong little bears......

Caveat: I have no idea what I am talking about, no graphs, no statistics, no economic theories, I can't refer you to any books, nor draw any parallels.... so don't follow me, I'm lost too.

Dont worry, this graph, proven over the last three decades now, is enough to prove where we are heading - its the nievety of people im really laughing at.

I havent even started to look at houses yet - ill wait for the despair and the fear in peoples eyes (i remember it well in 1995 (the last time I bought)).

http://img15.imageshack.us/i/economicconfidence86yea.png/

edited for wrong graph

Edited by Pearshape

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Do you not think this site can over emphasize the negative though? I don't know anyone who has lost their job / home (yet). People I meet still seem happy. Is it really as bad as people think?

Nobody I know is house hunting. Nobody I know (ftb at least) can afford a house.

I know plenty of people who have lost their jobs, although I don't yet know anyone who has lost their home.

People aren't happy either. They're miserable and are sick of work and sick of this "stinking country".

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Do you not think this site can over emphasize the negative though? I don't know anyone who has lost their job / home (yet). People I meet still seem happy. Is it really as bad as people think?

My business takes in all sectors (IT so we are really in the thick of it with confidential information etc) We see it getting worse since around June i.e

£40 million business 25% staff culled and 10% wage reductions

£15 million business 20% all round pay cuts like it or lump it

4 clients in administration (4 more than the last 3 years put together)

No significant investment by any client in moving the business forward

at least 8 senior directors we know FD's or MDs gone sacked or redundant

I would say it's a lot worse than many people realise. Not saying people aren't ploughing through but if you are a sane, rational person how can you be happy with this broken machine we call an economy?

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Nobody I know is house hunting. Nobody I know (ftb at least) can afford a house.

I know plenty of people who have lost their jobs, although I don't yet know anyone who has lost their home.

People aren't happy either. They're miserable and are sick of work and sick of this "stinking country".

Where in the UK are you?

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Do you not think this site can over emphasize the negative though? I don't know anyone who has lost their job / home (yet). People I meet still seem happy. Is it really as bad as people think?

I know two people (both with very good postgrad degrees - humanities and an MBA; one in Essex the other in London) who are out of work and have been for about 18 months now. They were in the £25-30k salary range. Both stuffed. Another bloke I know - self-employed journo - has been living off inheritance savings for about a year and is fast sinking into despair.

I don't know anyone who has bought a house recently...

Edited by Mugwump Boy

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Do you not think this site can over emphasize the negative though? I don't know anyone who has lost their job / home (yet). People I meet still seem happy. Is it really as bad as people think?

I know exactly what you mean. I think it depends if whether you have witnessed someone lose everything or not. How you were brought also plays a large part. For example, someone whose parents have had to scrimp and save will be more cautious than the child of a millionaire and this is because the richer person has no idea how hard life can be if something should go wrong. A less serious example is when you have loads of overtime at work. All is going great and you get used to that standard of living. Then its cut back to your basic 39 hours and you're £200 a week worse off. The bills and commitments are still the same, but the wage isn't and this is where the rot starts. My dad always said to me, " when money is tight love goes out of the window". Take a walk through any town and see couples arguing over money and you will see what i mean.

Saying that though, this site does go a bit ott sometimes but we have to remember that it is entertainment, not financial advice. Yes i am paying a bit more in rent than if i bought but i can move tomorrow and not owe anyone a penny.

Edited by g75f

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