Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Meerkat

Business Investment Drops Massively

Recommended Posts

UK Q2: -10.4% QoQ (expected -3.6%), YoY -18.4% (expected -12.2%)

Sibley & Co will prove so wrong down the line....

Edit: Got one number wrong, expected YoY was -12.2%

Edit2: Link Business Investment Data

It's funny though this information is getting no spin whatsoever: media very quick putting up NatWest house prices; however, that investment in production of useful things goes down (hence, unemployment to rise for sure) is of no interest. Pathetic.

Edited by Meerkat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
UK Q2: -10.4% QoQ (expected -3.6%), YoY -18.4% (expected -18.4%)

Sibley & Co will prove so wrong down the line....

I need someone to explain this one to me.

The expected was way out on the quarter but spot on for the YOY. They had the previous 3 quarters confirmed for the YOY so the only bit missing was for the final quarter. This they got wrong but the YOY was perfect.

How come?

p-o-p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I need someone to explain this one to me.

The expected was way out on the quarter but spot on for the YOY. They had the previous 3 quarters confirmed for the YOY so the only bit missing was for the final quarter. This they got wrong but the YOY was perfect.

How come?

p-o-p

Sry for the mistake - my bad; expectations were -12.2%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OK. Thanks (sort of). I thought that I was in for an interesting lesson today.

p-o-p

One often sees this mom vs yoy mismatch where the mom is way different from the consensus but the yoy is bang on or visa versa. On e.g. fx-street fundamentals economic calendar.

I reckon it's because the consensus forecast reported is a simple average of the forecasts and the mom and yoy consensus forecasts are not consistent from the start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One often sees this mom vs yoy mismatch where the mom is way different from the consensus but the yoy is bang on or visa versa. On e.g. fx-street fundamentals economic calendar.

I reckon it's because the consensus forecast reported is a simple average of the forecasts and the mom and yoy consensus forecasts are not consistent from the start.

Thanks. Next question. Does this massive annual drop indicate significant capital flight? Overseas investors not liking what is going on.

p-o-p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So basically all money is going into govt debt and property.

Where and how can this end...?

We all end up as enormously rich property tycoons, selling each other property for ever increasing amounts of borrowed money?

To Infinity And Beyond!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks. Next question. Does this massive annual drop indicate significant capital flight? Overseas investors not liking what is going on.

p-o-p

I don't think Balance of Payments stats for Q2 have been released yet. In any case, one would expect the current account deficit to reduce as domestic demand is squeezed and exports benefit from sterling depreciation. The reduced current account deficit implies a reduced capital/financial account surplus -- balance of payments always balance (apart from change in central bank FX reserves). Identifying capital flight is tricky, but one could look at the the Direct Investment figures -- a sharp drop here would be indicative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think Balance of Payments stats for Q2 have been released yet. In any case, one would expect the current account deficit to reduce as domestic demand is squeezed and exports benefit from sterling depreciation. The reduced current account deficit implies a reduced capital/financial account surplus -- balance of payments always balance (apart from change in central bank FX reserves). Identifying capital flight is tricky, but one could look at the the Direct Investment figures -- a sharp drop here would be indicative.

Angry Alice http://angryalice.blogspot.com/ did something on this but it is a bit old now. The BoE stats for June seem to continue the trend but it's a bit too complex for me http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/...rrent/index.htm

p-o-p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BUMP again. In the business that I work in we are more concerned with paying down debt than investing at the moment, having had an informal hint from our banks that the credit lines we have for the next 5 years may not be available if we were to ask for them right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank god it's not affected GDP figures.

Brown has done a great job borrowing the money to cover this short fall propping up the recovery.

We have a investmentless recovery.

In fairness, what with global consumer activity tanking, we're not going to need all this productive capacity anyway.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We have a investmentless recovery.

So to sum up:

A jobless, investmentless, exportless, recoveryless recovereh?

Have I left anything out?

Thank God for ever-increasing house prices!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In fairness, what with global consumer activity tanking, we're not going to need all this productive capacity anyway.....

Exactly, and that's why it makes sense that residential property pxs have been going up as of late, after all there will be less jobs and less real wealth created :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   295 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.