the end is a bit nigher Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 er... does that make it a good graph? It makes it a consistent graph. Maybe we need to vote on which graphs to use in the future and then stick with them regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinzano Bianco Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/ * House prices rose by 1.6% in August * Year-on-year decline slows from -6.2% to -2.7% * Low interest rates helping to underpin prices for the moment I get the feeling we are going to be bailing out a load of people who have been suckered into mortgages with low interest rates once those start to rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 borrowing more is more affordable.. the cause of the rises is back....affordability criteria...now guess where that leads.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Its obvious now that low interest rates are having a positive effect. With rates statying where they are for who knows how long then this run is going to continue regardless of what unemployment is doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHERWICK Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 I notice much wailing and gnashing of teeth... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessica Rabbit Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Things were starting to look interesting, however, now it is back to the simple argument that it is more expensive to buy than rent. I know this vaires around the country and in the South East rents are higher I think. However, in the North, house prices are massively higher than rental prices, so it looks like a further year of staying where I am. No, the mortgage on an equivalent house in the SE is still more expensive than the rent on it. That's why we're still renting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear_or_bull Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 +8.4% trough to peak, -13.9% peak to current.so we've now 'recovered' over 1/3 of what was lost Was trough to peak since April. I.e. annualised at ~34%? Glory to Sibley, for he shall inherit the world. The meek on the other hand are well and truly stuffed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilroy Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 I notice much wailing and gnashing of teeth... a good contrary indicator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 No, the mortgage on an equivalent house in the SE is still more expensive than the rent on it. That's why we're still renting. Good on you. I did some very basic research about 2 years ago and found that on average it cost 50% more to buy the equivalent in Yorkshire whereas in the South East it was only about 25% more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the primitive Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/ * House prices rose by 1.6% in August * Year-on-year decline slows from -6.2% to -2.7% * Low interest rates helping to underpin prices for the moment It just goes to show how deeply ingrained the "house prices up = good" meme is ingrained in the British people. At 1.6% per month, house prices woudl rise about 20% in a year, despite rising unemployment and a deep recession. Surely that is just bonkers? I have to admit I am amazed at the strength and influence of "sentiment" which is flying in the face of all fundamentals. Well I am not buying a house at these stupid prices, i will stick where I am. Perhaps any predictions of house prices in the future which involve logic and assumptions of sanity are doomed to always be wrong, if the sentiment of people is so firmly based in insanity. If i was reading about this in a book as a case study from history, it would be fascinating. As it is, I cannot move to a decent sized house without signing up to a risky lifetime of debt enslavement, so it is not interesting, just depressing, galling and bizarre. And quite lonely to not be one of the sheeple at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 I notice much wailing and gnashing of teeth... Oh yes. No point in denying this has completely ******ed me off. Not least I have turned the radio off as every bloody news bulletin is bleating on about the housing market recovery. Yet no-one can tell me why it is a good idea to pay more for somewhere to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Oh, Jeez - here we go... more bleak bear posts. Can I just remind you all that unemployment is still rising, the sample of houses sold from which these stats come from is still very low (approvals need to DOUBLE) and banks are not going to leap back into bed with borrowers at 95% LTV, 6x income any time soon. Wile E Coyote has run off the cliff and is about to look down... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Melchett Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 I agree. It's far too easy to present oneself (or be presented) as a 'Housing Expert'. You only have to look on this site for the evidence. I dont recall people from this site being asked by the meeja to pass comment aas housing experts, though. Come to think of it, I dont recall most of the meeja ever discussing, in any way at all, how high or rising house prices might actually not be a good or sustainable thing. Which is odd, considering there are so many angles to take on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D179 Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 I am now uunsure of where things go from here, the low interest rates are the factor, plus sentiment, just about everyone else I know is positive about things and it seems, that at the very least. with QE, low rates and sentiment, maybe things have stablised. I dont know, my thoughts were increased in supply would help, hence my post yesterday, I think that the next few months will be interesting. I have made my mind up tho.... If i see a decent house that my misus wants to buy then I will I am now beginning to look a real tit at home... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Oh, Jeez - here we go... more bleak bear posts.Can I just remind you all that unemployment is still rising, the sample of houses sold from which these stats come from is still very low (approvals need to DOUBLE) and banks are not going to leap back into bed with borrowers at 95% LTV, 6x income any time soon. Wile E Coyote has run off the cliff and is about to look down... That is the logical conclusion and one of the reasons I am not buying. However to pretend it doesn't piss me off is just daft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heresjohnny Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Curious commentary from the Nationwide - don't seem that positive (from their point of view). My missus works for a bank in head office and they seem to think interest rates will go up at the end of this year. They are also worried about the amount of debt becoming impaired (credit cards, loans, mortgages). I wonder in the Nationwide have seen something in their tea leaves. Personally I find the increases mind boggling in the sense that unemployment is increasing. Wonder whats going to happen over the next few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 That is the logical conclusion and one of the reasons I am not buying. However to pretend it doesn't piss me off is just daft. never forget that we have a Labour government run by desperate people who don't care about anything except self preservation and have done everything possible to push prices up so their ill gotten property empires will sustain them once they're booted out of office.. and they're still down on peak. I don't hold out much hope for Cameron but at least he will have less inclination to care about the tiny hovels the plebs reside in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Screw it, I'll just emigrate. I wouldn't pay the prices asked for a shitbox in this country, even with the toilet paper currency we have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HXO Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 It just goes to show how deeply ingrained the "house prices up = good" meme is ingrained in the British people. At 1.6% per month, house prices woudl rise about 20% in a year, despite rising unemployment and a deep recession. Surely that is just bonkers? I have to admit I am amazed at the strength and influence of "sentiment" which is flying in the face of all fundamentals.Well I am not buying a house at these stupid prices, i will stick where I am. Perhaps any predictions of house prices in the future which involve logic and assumptions of sanity are doomed to always be wrong, if the sentiment of people is so firmly based in insanity. If i was reading about this in a book as a case study from history, it would be fascinating. As it is, I cannot move to a decent sized house without signing up to a risky lifetime of debt enslavement, so it is not interesting, just depressing, galling and bizarre. And quite lonely to not be one of the sheeple at times. +1, it really is depressing to think that this government is willing to enslave the next few generations to maintain their "equity". It will look very damning in the history books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 (edited) Why are the VIs figures showing higher prices overall? Because, unlike the greater sense of reality in the US, they are overlooking the KEY to understanding: lower transactions always (not sometimes) skew market data in an upward bias: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/C...RRCA090821.aspx The median price paid for a home last month was $250,000, up 1.6 percent from $246,000 in June, and down 21.4 percent from $318,000 for July a year ago. The upturn in median the last three months is the result of a relative increase in sales of more expensive homes. Given rapidly rising unemployment, tightening credit and a rapidly running down stimulus effect house prices have nowhere to go but to align themselves with people's ability to pay. Edited August 27, 2009 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 More info:http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2009.pdf A couple of months ago, Dr Bubb said that if it gets back to £160k, it would set a new trend upwards. I wonder if he will stick to that. I still think there is a supply crunch which is causing buyers to panic. I know several cases where buyers feel forced to purchase now since there is very little for sale. One friend went SSTC at the weekend, offerered full asking on a small 4 bed the day after it went on the market, probably around £210K. VMR. Personally I think its got nowt to do with if house prices get to over 160k or not - its about the signals the BoE are giving - and they are currently saying fill your boots because IR's are low and staying low, we are devaluing money and encouraging inflation, we are beckoning banks to lend more and its a matter of time before they open the floodgates again. In short, its party like 2007 again - but this time they have no one else to blame when it goes wrong - the next time the bubble looks like it may burst - they will deny the problem exists and print and print and print and print until the problem goes away. They have made a trap for themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Oh, Jeez - here we go... more bleak bear posts.Can I just remind you all that unemployment is still rising, the sample of houses sold from which these stats come from is still very low (approvals need to DOUBLE) and banks are not going to leap back into bed with borrowers at 95% LTV, 6x income any time soon. Wile E Coyote has run off the cliff and is about to look down... Why do approvals need to double? The banks will go back to 95%LTV eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc_li Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Yachts are traditionally bought by the (virtually) rich-but-clueless who live inland on the premise that they will use the Range Rover Sport to tow it to a seaside town for rugged seafaring fun.In fact, the yacht never moves. Speaking as a boat owner, two different boats in two countries, over a period of some two decades, I have to disagree, at least in part. There are two distinct categories. Those you outline above do indeed form a significant part of the market. They usually get bored with the idea after a couple of years and dell up as a significant loss. The other category, amongst which I count myself, are those for whom boat owning, maintaining and sailing forms a significant part of their leisure activity and discretionary spend. My current boat cost 30k euro to buy and about 5k per year to maintain. I´m happy to pay that as I get a lot of use and enjoyment out of it. I´m probably on her close to 100 nights a year. Its my only expensive toy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 Oh, Jeez - here we go... more bleak bear posts.Can I just remind you all that unemployment is still rising, the sample of houses sold from which these stats come from is still very low (approvals need to DOUBLE) and banks are not going to leap back into bed with borrowers at 95% LTV, 6x income any time soon. Wile E Coyote has run off the cliff and is about to look down... Why do approvals need to double? The banks will go back to 95%LTV eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kara gee Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 I am now uunsure of where things go from here, the low interest rates are the factor, plus sentiment, just about everyone else I know is positive about things and it seems, that at the very least. with QE, low rates and sentiment, maybe things have stablised. I dont know, my thoughts were increased in supply would help, hence my post yesterday, I think that the next few months will be interesting. I have made my mind up tho.... If i see a decent house that my misus wants to buy then I will I am now beginning to look a real tit at home... Fair enough. If the figures add up and your job/s are safe, why not? For me though, the figures don't add up. Still way better renting/saving. Definately prepared to wait another couple of years. It would just irk me beyond belief to pay todays prices. Todays average price =£160k Teachers salary = £32k..............Hmmmmmmm..........let me think about that..........wouldnt even buy a poxy little slave box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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