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ZR_Seanie

Nationwide Figures 27/8/9

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Guest theboltonfury
I think it will be +1.1

Hoping its negative though

past caring to be honest.

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Couldn't care less. Its been a good news week for the housing industry. Lots of manipulated figures have come out. Another one trips form the tongues of the VI's tomorrow.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, sales volumes are still massively down, houses are not selling and yet more and more delusional vendors creep into the market at make believe asking prices because things are better and the recession is over!!

I predict the analysis of the Nationwide figures will show that the average advance has fallen (again) but the average sale price has increased (again).

Good news, we are getting closer to the endgame!

Edited by Nick Dastardly

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Up atleast 1% and i expect average UK prices to smash through 160K.

you mean they'll be SOARING, IN ORBIT, STRATOSPHERIC, PHANTASMAGORICAL.

shame most people cant afford them.

the banks only can by lying about their actual asset valuations.

this is a market supported by lies and taxes...it cant go on.

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1. Unemployment, unemployment, unemployment.

2. Tight credit

Fewer, more expensive, properties selling. Average prices move upward givng the illusion of a recovering market as stats are skewqed upward.

Tomorrow's figures are probably going to show a 1.3% increase. The real market is probably down another 2% or so.

A la:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/C...RRCA090821.aspx

The median price paid for a home last month was $250,000, up 1.6 percent from $246,000 in June, and down 21.4 percent from $318,000 for July a year ago. The upturn in median the last three months is the result of a relative increase in sales of more expensive homes.

Just what is happening in our market which has been a mirror of CA in the last 2 great crashes.

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forecasting individual months is a bit pointless given the margin for error but i would expect both indices to be down in roughly double the number of months that they are up in the remainder of this year, i.e. down overall by a solid handful of percentage points.

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UP! 17.6%!

WOOOOHHOOO.

But seriously. I couldn't give a flying **** any more to be honest.

As someone else said: who care's what the figures say. They are supported by lies, manipulation, nationalisation and ********.

0% rates, QE, Government running HUGE deficit, holding companies so banks wont mark repossed houses to market and nationalisation of the Banks really can't support house prices much longer.

Really, when history is written over this sorry episode, the folk in the future will be pissing themselves laughing.

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UP! 17.6%!

WOOOOHHOOO.

But seriously. I couldn't give a flying **** any more to be honest.

As someone else said: who care's what the figures say. They are supported by lies, manipulation, nationalisation and ********.

0% rates, QE, Government running HUGE deficit, holding companies so banks wont mark repossed houses to market and nationalisation of the Banks really can't support house prices much longer.

Really, when history is written over this sorry episode, the folk in the future will be pissing themselves laughing.

first they ignored us..

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It wold be nice to know the mean median and modal figure as these would give indications of what is actually going on.

I suspect at the minute, most houses been sold are at the expensive end of the market as these people will have cash or equity enabling them to get a morgage. Even a house that sold for £400k but was bought 2 years ago for £800k would push up the average but not reflect the drop in price the vendors suffered.

If we had the mode and median it may go some way to telling us what price bracket the houses were selling in. Another option would be to split the figures up into average price per stampduty band. Of course the VI would never want to give out this data if they had it.

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Fewer, more expensive, properties selling. Average prices move upward givng the illusion of a recovering market as stats are skewqed upward.

Tomorrow's figures are probably going to show a 1.3% increase. The real market is probably down another 2% or so.

I believe that this is a misconception - there would be a small second order effect but they adjust for the mix of houses sold. Your conjecture would be true if their index was just the mean average house price sold in the month, regardless of size, but I believe it is not.

I haven't researched Nationwide but I did look it up for Halifax (http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/halifax_hpi.asp):

The average price for any set of houses in any period will depend on the number

of observations on each characteristic in that period. Standardisation allows

for the varying mix of characteristics between different time periods and is

achieved by applying a representative set of weights corresponding to the

numbers of each characteristic observed in a base period. For the Halifax House

Price Index this has been chosen as 1983. The index numbers represent the

movement in average prices for houses possessing the same characteristics as

those bought in 1983 and are calculated by comparing the weighted (i.e

mix-adjusted) prices in each current period with the weighted average price in

the base period.

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I suspect at the minute, most houses been sold are at the expensive end of the market as these people will have cash or equity enabling them to get a morgage. Even a house that sold for £400k but was bought 2 years ago for £800k would push up the average but not reflect the drop in price the vendors suffered.

House price indices don't really work like that. They use mix adjustment.

Here's the Nationwide methodology.

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Well I'm hoping one day to hit the button on these. I think with all the ramping of recent months I expect to see a rise of 1.8% this month ... I expect the downward trend to return by November though.

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up 1.6% apparently

yep, +3.3%% QoQ, which would equal +13.9% a year. How can anyone think this is a good and sustainable thing, especially after what happened last time they were rising like this; it's not like it was 20 years/a generation ago so we think things have changed and it's all ok this time. At least the nationwide report makes it clear that as soon as forced sellers become a part of the equation or interest rates rise then we're going to lose all these gains we're seeing now.

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up 1.6 haha its seems quite hard to swallow but to be honest like the rest of you i dont care anymore.

i for one point blank refuse to ever buy at these prices

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