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BelfastVI

Return To Growth?

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Graphs are funny things but can sometimes show changes in trends clearer than figures ever could do. Does the attached graph show a return to growth after two years of falls or is it a continuation of the trend. (UK)

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Graphs are funny things but can sometimes show changes in trends clearer than figures ever could do. Does the attached graph show a return to growth after two years of falls or is it a continuation of the trend. (UK)

What are the X and Y axes? Or is that some sort of topographic profile map of the lagan valley or somewhere and you're taking the p*ss out of us bears? :P

Edited by shipbuilder

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My old physics teacher uses to teach us rhythms, this one comes to mind:

Every graph must have a title, every graph must have a scale,

both the axis's must be marked, or your graph is sure to fail :-)

Your chart is a perfect example of how not to do a chart, apologies if you did not create, but an explanation would have been nice.

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greater london quarterly (nominal) data for comparisson

Q1 1990 91089

Q2 1990 86993

Q3 1990 82483

Q4 1990 77884

Q1 1991 77146

Q2 1991 77901

Q3 1991 77767

Q4 1991 75322

Q1 1992 73029

Q2 1992 73114

Q3 1992 70974

Q4 1992 66573

Q1 1993 66948

Q2 1993 68536

Q3 1993 68039

Q4 1993 67780

Q1 1994 69332

Q2 1994 69711

Q3 1994 68696

Q4 1994 70121

Q1 1995 69006

Q2 1995 73397

Q3 1995 73766

Q4 1995 74161

Q1 1996 70773

Q2 1996 76077

Q3 1996 77743

Q4 1996 80433

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Return to growth... is that the same thing as 'return to normal'? ;)

manias-bubbles.jpg

People who do not understand economics, expect the housing market to 'return to normal' and house prices to go back up. History shows that the housing market will 'return to normal' and house prices will go back down.
Edited by Belfast Boy

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Graphs are funny things but can sometimes show changes in trends clearer than figures ever could do. Does the attached graph show a return to growth after two years of falls or is it a continuation of the trend. (UK)

A return to growth? No.

A return to school? Worth considering B)

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I was a little unfair. What I showed was the average house price in the UK from 1973 to present. The only differance was I inverted it so the current decline looks like a recovery.

Sometimes we all see, myself included, what we want to see in figures and graphs etc. Whilst there was only one or two dead cat bounce comments mostly suspected a trick and for that I apologise. And without scales and marked axes, as you pointed out graphs are meaningless. Although that never prevents the posting of 'main stages in a bubble' graph.

The point I was illustrating was how we all see what we want to see and then filter the facts to find the evidence to back it up.

I am impressed that most refused to comment.

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Here is a nice graph...

UKHPvAvEarnings2.jpg

Here's another graph.

It shows the ratio peeked at 5.5 and is now at 4.2. I admit it is from the Nationwide and I see from your other recent post you don't trust their reports.

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Here's another graph.

It shows the ratio peeked at 5.5 and is now at 4.2. I admit it is from the Nationwide and I see from your other recent post you don't trust their reports.

So going on that graph BelfastVI, then the logic would be that this ratio fell below where the previous boom started...1982 until 1989, 2.8 to 3.9...

the crash took this ratio below where it had started...down to 2.2 by 1995...So are you expecting this ratio to fall below where it was at the beginning of the boom around 2000...that would be below 3...if we take that markets shoot down below where they have came from perhaps we ll get down to 2.5?

Markets are like elastic bands, or large coiled springs...YOu push a spring in until it becomes very narrow, then the bigger the move...as periods of very low volatility or standard deviation lead to periods of very high deviation or volatility...

The move up to 2007 was when the spring was pulled hard at both ends, to an extreme, ready to snap back...now that spring has been let go at both ends and will snap back in proportion to how much it was suppressed at the start of the boom...

I can't prove to you on this timescale that it will mostly likely be like this again...but I watch this phenomenon everyday occur at a fractal level in markets...some examples...

Here is a recent one intraday chart of GBP/JPY...Return to mean/overshoot

The bands are 2 standard deviations from a 13 period mean...

The green arrows show the times when price shoots outside 2 standard deviations, usually followed by a violent snap back to over 2 standard deviations away from the mean in the opposite direction...

The blue arrows show periods of calm, when the spring is coiled and not extended, and a move to a band usually presents a soft move back to the mean...however the longer the animal sleeps and stays inside the band the more hungry he is when he wakes up, then we get these violent moves...I d like to see this chart with a standard deviation line drawn in...

The bigger the move to one side the larger the recoil back in the other direction...that was one hell of a move to the upside, so i d expect a large shoot to the downside, if the train wreck in the credit markets is allowed to play out,,,ie, minus inflating.

Edited by VedantaTrader

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If the market is stabilising and sales are up why are our developer and builder friends spending so much time on here arguing about graphs ?

I thought they would be up to their oxters in customers.

This is my industry, I am interested in it and whats happening. Sometimes there are useful debates in here.

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Here's another graph.

It shows the ratio peeked at 5.5 and is now at 4.2. I admit it is from the Nationwide and I see from your other recent post you don't trust their reports.

Seem right to me, goes along with the Housing Exec report that FTBs have increased in age in proportion with price. It depends who you think FTBS are.. Actual first time buyers or people under 25. I do often mean the latter when I talk about FTBs, it very easy to forget what it actually means.

FTBs have also been declining as a proportion of overall buyers for a decade or more.

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