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Telometer

"suckers' Rally" Everybody Says So. Buy Indicator?

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I am as bearish as you get and have just liquidiated the last equities I have. But EVERYWHERE I look it tells me that it is a suckers' rally. The market is trading at a historic high multiple of earnings. The only people talking the market up and declaring the end of the recession are Government types.

Yet up, up up it rises.

The contrarian view is obviously to agree with HMG as *everybody* is saying the market is overvalued.

Edited by Telometer

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I am as bearish as you get and have just liquidiated the last equities I have. But EVERYWHERE I look it tells me that it is a suckers' rally. The market is trading at 60x earnings. The only people talking the market up and declaring the end of the recession are Government types.

Yet up, up up it rises.

The contrarian view is obviously to agree with HMG as *everybody* is saying the market is overvalued.

Yes everybody says that its a bear rally, which is what worries me

Therefore, i hold my nose and hold my positions, but dont add to them...

....which I've been doing since May I guess

I cant see the logic of investing in equities when earnings are going down when the Us index is apparently 18x historic and the Uk is 11x earnings...

...and there is no credible driver for sustained consumer spending growth around the world

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And in the real world, sterling is teetering on the brink of a three month low against the Euro and traders wait to hear Charles Bean, BoE Deputy Governor at 5:15 before taking it even lower.

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I am as bearish as you get and have just liquidiated the last equities I have. But EVERYWHERE I look it tells me that it is a suckers' rally. The market is trading at a historic high multiple of earnings. The only people talking the market up and declaring the end of the recession are Government types.

Yet up, up up it rises.

The contrarian view is obviously to agree with HMG as *everybody* is saying the market is overvalued.

Double contrarianism can be seen as cautious reason for optimism - with the emphasis on 'cautious'.

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THe SPX rose to new highs in October '07.

Denial is a wonderful thing. That and limitless bids from the Giant Squid paid for with taxpayers future earnings.

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I am as bearish as you get and have just liquidiated the last equities I have. But EVERYWHERE I look it tells me that it is a suckers' rally. The market is trading at a historic high multiple of earnings. The only people talking the market up and declaring the end of the recession are Government types.

Yet up, up up it rises.

The contrarian view is obviously to agree with HMG as *everybody* is saying the market is overvalued.

Never underestimate the size of a bear market rally. You can potentially make back all your money (or double it) if you time it right.

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Never underestimate the size of a bear market rally. You can potentially make back all your money (or double it) if you time it right.

+ 40% in UK so far

+ 50% in US...

...much more in the trashy end of the market

You would have thought it wouldnt have much more legs.....

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A reduction of over 6 million jobs is a lot of cost cutting that goes straight to the bottom line. And if revenues eventually rise, it will be a leveraged play, in that profit per unit cost will grow very fast.

That's the theory anyway.

Apart from that you have 6 million fewer customers too...

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my mouse pointer was hovering over the 'sell' button on my trackers yesterday but i chickened out. there just doesn't seem to be anywhere to put one's money. my thought process was along the lines of:

(1) Q - are current multiples, ratios, etc sustainable for the very long term [e.g. the next 10-20 years]? A - no, of course not;

(2) Q - are they broadly sustainable for the next year or so? the next two years? the next five? A - errrrr....

i suspect it's probably worth holding a few quid [that you can afford to see substantially eroded] in stocks without going over the top...

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Apart from that you have 6 million fewer customers too...

And the govt has 6 million more to pay benefits to. So guess how they are going to finance that gap?

Yep, TAX INCREASES............ ;)

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I am as bearish as you get and have just liquidiated the last equities I have. But EVERYWHERE I look it tells me that it is a suckers' rally. The market is trading at a historic high multiple of earnings. The only people talking the market up and declaring the end of the recession are Government types.

Yet up, up up it rises.

The contrarian view is obviously to agree with HMG as *everybody* is saying the market is overvalued.

I put around 6 grand in when the DOW dropped back to 8100 and then resumed upwards. Mostly into regional ETFs and gold miners. It is now worth 7 grand and I want to sell but people saying it is going to crash brings out the contrarion in me.

I can't bring myself to put anymore money in but i'll hold what I have and keep the rest of my investment amount in cash for the time being.

My best return at the moment is on renting out my property but we'll see what happens come april.

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