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Joey Buttafueco Jr

Bba Loans For Home Approvals: 38131

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The group said net lending, which strips out redemptions and repayments, fell to £1.6bn as borrowers sought to reduce their mortgage debt.

But on a brighter note, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase jumped to a 17-month high as buyers continued to return to the property market.

WTF? Is repaying one's debt now bad news!? The world is completely nuts.

edit: typo

Edited by Traktion

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Yes, it does sound a bit bearish at the end of the article.

However I wouldn't be surprised if this bit below will be the section mainly quoted in most of our media to help big up the property market? Even though we here know the figures are still low, if the meda quote an increase of 77%, it makes it sound like there has actually been a huge increase in the figures.

"A total of 38,181 loans were approved for people buying a home, 77% more than in July last year and the highest level since February 2008, the BBA said."

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"A total of 38,181 loans were approved for people buying a home, 77% more than in July last year and the highest level since February 2008, the BBA said."

This followed figures from HM Revenue & Customers which revealed 76,000 homes changed hands in July, an increase of 17 per cent on the previous month as buyers continued to return to the market.

So 50% of all house purchases in July were for cash? Anyone got the time to chart this one?

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I shit you not:

Steady rise in mortgage approvals

The BBA reports figures for the major High Street banks

The number of mortgages approved for house purchases by the major High Street banks has risen for the seventh month in a row, figures show.

The British Bankers' Association (BBA) said approvals in July stood at 38,181, a rise of 7.4% compared with June.

The data suggests that the rise in activity and house prices could stretch into the autumn.

However, the group warned that new lending was below seasonal expectations despite greater demand from borrowers.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8219710.stm

:lol:

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Also someone predicting nationwide to be unchanged.

http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?Artic...prices_in_focus

NATIONWIDE HOUSE PRICE SURVEY (AUG)

Expected in the week starting Aug 24

Previous Forecast Previous

House price change (m/m) UNCH 1.3

House price change (y/y) -4.6 -6.2

The Nationwide index is likely to show house prices were

unchanged in August, after rising for three months running.

Economists predict the recent rise will prove to be short-lived,

with prices being driven by weak supply as low prices continue

to deter owners from putting houses on the market.

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However, the group warned that new lending was below seasonal expectations despite greater demand from borrowers.

Does this not imply that many people are putting in offers (SSTC everywhere) but banks are just not lending except to AAA borrowers.?

disappointment all round.

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Could'nt the drop in net lending simply be that the banks are lending only to those with bigger deposits?

It seems to me that this rally is a combination of the cash rich jumping back into a market which has restricted supply because repo's have been stemmed through low interest rates and the banks being lent on.

The real question is how long can this situation last?

Net lending will continue to fall and approvals should fall as the cash starts to run out.

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Replying to myself...

HMRC_July_2009.PNG

Looks like HMRC being double the BBA approvals is the norm.

post-13163-1251201920_thumb.png

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Replying to myself...

HMRC_July_2009.PNG

Looks like HMRC being double the BBA approvals is the norm.

Nice Graph. Also the BBA is a partial count running roughly at about 59% of the BoE approvals (see, LPMVTVU and LPMVTVX, BoE stats database) and the HMRC lags slightly on account of a usual purchase timeline. There is some (still) unresolved differences in the counts amongst the various transaction series, for example, the LR HPI is quite low, presumably reflecting exclusions.

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Yes, it does sound a bit bearish at the end of the article.

However I wouldn't be surprised if this bit below will be the section mainly quoted in most of our media to help big up the property market? Even though we here know the figures are still low, if the meda quote an increase of 77%, it makes it sound like there has actually been a huge increase in the figures.

"A total of 38,181 loans were approved for people buying a home, 77% more than in July last year and the highest level since February 2008, the BBA said."

You are absolutely right. I was unfortunately listening to radio 5 as hadn't changed from listening to the footy last night. They broke off their normal conversation to release 'Breaking News' that mortgage approvals had 'considerably increased'.

Didn't mention below the expected figure. BBC eh? Great.

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However, the group warned that new lending was below seasonal expectations despite greater demand from borrowers.

Does this not imply that many people are putting in offers (SSTC everywhere) but banks are just not lending except to AAA borrowers.?

disappointment all round.

Broken Chains Theory confirmed again in the Sky article with BBA saying the :

..... slower housing market activity meant it was taking longer for mortgage approvals for house purchase to work through into the gross and net lending figures.

Confirmed by Ms Knight BBA's chief exec a few weeks ago :

...."also worth noting that the only people lending are banks", Ms Knight added.

"Building societies can't do it due to their business model and they can't get access to funds as easily."

It was also clear that many borrowers were becoming "stuck in chains" when trying to buy somewhere to live, she said, meaning banks were "granting more mortgages than are being taken up".

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BBA Approvals in July/09

44,926 NSA, 38,181 SA

+81% YoY

+7% MoM SA

Approvals chart updated today: BBA (scaled 1/0.6), BOE, and BoE lending panel data, seasonally adjusted figures. BOE July to appear later this month.

fxuhq9.png

BBA link

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=16458

Are we back on the linear bit of your forecast curve, spline?

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Are we back on the linear bit of your forecast curve, spline?

Hi aussieboy

Yes, I’d say the model is back inside its comfort zone – you should start to see the gap between the model estimates and the Halifax price/hpi start to narrow down again. :)

Incidentally, Sibil13’s link posted above is only to 05/27/09, so the last bit looks slightly low.

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