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Realistbear

High Street Vacancies Rise To 12.6 Percent

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/24082009/325/high-...-6-percent.html

Monday August 24, 06:57 PM

Reuters

High street vacancies rise to 12.6 percent

LONDON (Reuters) - More than one-in-ten shops on an average high street in Britain are now standing vacant, as the recession continues to force struggling retailers out of business, a report showed Monday.

Recession continues to.................. The "government" are telling us that the recession is over--or will be by Christmas and that things are picking up, even in the high street. Is reality different from their claims?

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That is a very naughty selective cut and paste there unrealistbear.

The rest of the article goes on that this is unchange since may and that the major part of retailers going bust is over and that it will get better next year. But of course that part is not important enough for discussion is it?

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How can they say we are approaching a peak in vacancies? yeah whatever!

Perhaps they asked the retailers how business is? or they may even have been as bold to ask "are you going to go bust?"

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That is a very naughty selective cut and paste there unrealistbear.

The rest of the article goes on that this is unchange since may and that the major part of retailers going bust is over and that it will get better next year. But of course that part is not important enough for discussion is it?

No, it's not because it's twaddle.

If you added in retailers occupying properties but not paying any rent the percentage would be even higher. It would also be worse if it was on a per sqft rather than individual address basis.

Cushman's are effectively a commercial property estate agent so, quelle surprise, they're optimistic.

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See something on the news tonight, can't remember if it was london tonight, but it saying how resturants are still closing.

They mentioned 300 have already closed this year, for those figures it must of been local news.

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The real challenge that I forsee will occur when the "anchor" tenants start to go bust.

In many locations, there are one or two large retailers who occupy a high proportion of the space at a relatively low price per sq ft. These tenants are the ones who attract the peripheral occupants who take smaller amounts of space at higher rents.

The system falls apart when the larger tenants leave rather than when a few of the smaller tenants close up shop.

For the NW London crowd, imagine what would happen to Brent Cross if John Lewis went out of business or what would happen to the O2 centre if Sainsburys closed up shop.

While I agree that the survival of some of the smaller high street shops is a warning sign, I think that the true catastrophe for commercial real estate will happen when a few massive, "anchor tenants" go bankrupt.

Woolies was a warning sign but not enough to tip the market over the precipice (yet) .........

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The real challenge that I forsee will occur when the "anchor" tenants start to go bust.

In many locations, there are one or two large retailers who occupy a high proportion of the space at a relatively low price per sq ft. These tenants are the ones who attract the peripheral occupants who take smaller amounts of space at higher rents.

The system falls apart when the larger tenants leave rather than when a few of the smaller tenants close up shop.

For the NW London crowd, imagine what would happen to Brent Cross if John Lewis went out of business or what would happen to the O2 centre if Sainsburys closed up shop.

While I agree that the survival of some of the smaller high street shops is a warning sign, I think that the true catastrophe for commercial real estate will happen when a few massive, "anchor tenants" go bankrupt.

Woolies was a warning sign but not enough to tip the market over the precipice (yet) .........

The two weakest anchors that'd leave shopping centres looking empty are Debenhams and House of Fraser - neither of which are viable businesses. Debenhams, in particular, exists on a massive debt mountain. Either DSG or Kesa going could also leave some retail parks without an electical offer.

I think you'll have a long wait for John Lewis to fold but, their department stores were very dependent on lavish housing bubble spending and extravagant wedding lists.

You do understand that this is the equivalent of a press release from Foxtons spouting about green shoots in the housing market.

There's better evidence to go on. Like how many new leases/assignment deals are completing, how many serious enquires agents are admitting to receiving privately and the that I know exactly how many high st properties are on the market - many confidentially and with the previous tenant in situ but paying no rent, which for me, is much the same as empty.

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Recession continues to.................. The "government" are telling us that the recession is over--or will be by Christmas and that things are picking up, even in the high street. Is reality different from their claims?

I think the govt will be telling us the technical recession is over.

So there reality is clearly different from ours.

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Apparently according to BBC South West this morning it is this region that is the worst with Exeter leading the way. Of course the council said that was rubbish, but having looked around the gleaming white elephant known as the Princess Hay and all the empty retail units (Weren't they called shops once upon a time ago? When did that need rebranding), you can't help feeling that the city with delusions of grandeur is screwed.

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