Realistbear Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asUXMel6Rzeg U.K. House Prices to Drop Further 13%, Bond Investors Forecast By Esteban Duarte Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices will plunge another 12.7 percent before bottoming out, according to bond investors surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Britain’s homes, which have already fallen 15 percent since October 2007, have further to fall, said 86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors. The U.K.’s biggest bank controlled by the government distributed the result of the survey in an e-mail to clients on Aug. 21. “General opinion was that U.K. housing has another down leg to take,†RBS said in the note. IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices. It is natural for the banks to try to put on a brave face in the face of the worst recession in history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asUXMel6RzegU.K. House Prices to Drop Further 13%, Bond Investors Forecast By Esteban Duarte Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices will plunge another 12.7 percent before bottoming out, according to bond investors surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Britain’s homes, which have already fallen 15 percent since October 2007, have further to fall, said 86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors. The U.K.’s biggest bank controlled by the government distributed the result of the survey in an e-mail to clients on Aug. 21. “General opinion was that U.K. housing has another down leg to take,†RBS said in the note. IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices. It is natural for the banks to try to put on a brave face in the face of the worst recession in history. At least it is an article that says HOUSE PRICES ARE STILL FALLING .....that's an improvement isn't it? So they are saying 28% from peak......that would be a start on Rightmove instead of 2007 + 15% ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices. IMO you need to put your money where your mouth is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asUXMel6RzegU.K. House Prices to Drop Further 13%, Bond Investors Forecast By Esteban Duarte Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices will plunge another 12.7 percent before bottoming out, according to bond investors surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Britain’s homes, which have already fallen 15 percent since October 2007, have further to fall, said 86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors. The U.K.’s biggest bank controlled by the government distributed the result of the survey in an e-mail to clients on Aug. 21. “General opinion was that U.K. housing has another down leg to take,†RBS said in the note. IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices. It is natural for the banks to try to put on a brave face in the face of the worst recession in history. I love how these wiseguys muster a figure of 12.7%, like their methodology is more precise than "I reckon they're gonna fall"..... "oh no they're not!" Are these the same "great minds" who didn't manage to call the top of the greatest Ponzi scheme in living memory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWantItNow Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices.It is natural for the banks to try to put on a brave face in the face of the worst recession in history. IMO my salary needs to increase by 100% to meet my true market value...doesn't mean it's going to happen though. Worst recession in history!? With sensationalist statements like that you should be working for the Daily Mail! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asUXMel6RzegU.K. House Prices to Drop Further 13%, Bond Investors Forecast By Esteban Duarte Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices will plunge another 12.7 percent before bottoming out, according to bond investors surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Britain’s homes, which have already fallen 15 percent since October 2007, have further to fall, said 86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors. The U.K.’s biggest bank controlled by the government distributed the result of the survey in an e-mail to clients on Aug. 21. “General opinion was that U.K. housing has another down leg to take,†RBS said in the note. IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices. It is natural for the banks to try to put on a brave face in the face of the worst recession in history. A drop of 13% is ramping?! How? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 IMO my salary needs to increase by 100% to meet my true market value...doesn't mean it's going to happen though.Worst recession in history!? With sensationalist statements like that you should be working for the Daily Mail! What's wrong with having an opinion that house prices have a further 30% to fall? You don't have to agree with the opinion but you don't have to be rude. And for the record, is it really that unrealistic that we have a further 30% to come off house prices? I think you will find a lot of people on here think it will be more than that. All opinions, up to you to process them to make sense of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 A drop of 13% is ramping?!How? By being overly optimistic on how little they will fall. 13 percent drops only are the new "ramping". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 By being overly optimistic on how little they will fall.13 percent drops only are the new "ramping". Ramping is going up.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairies Wear Boots Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 C'mon now mate, this is getting silly. Every time I look in the main forum now it's either 90% from peak or 'Another 30%'. Is this one of those philosophical things on finite bounds within infinity? Like the permanently slowing tortoise who is always 10 seconds away from reaching the finish line? He's allowed his prediction. I've seen how much house prices were around where I live in 2002- 2003 and thirty percent off from here wouldn't put them back there by any stretch of the imagination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 He's allowed his prediction. I've seen how much house prices were around where I live in 2002- 2003 and thirty percent off from here wouldn't put them back there by any stretch of the imagination. Exactly; 30% from here still wouldn't wipe out all the boom time increases of the 2002 + years. A lot of the above posters don't seem to have a grip on just how out of kilter the boom was so completely unfathomable HPI seems 'normal' but you mention a 30% fall and a bunch of people with no grasp of historical asset price fluctuations call you an idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Ramping is going up.... The 'new' trend in ramping appears to be the 'things are not getting as bad as quickly' routine: a headline that indicates everything is better which when dissected actually means things are still getting worse but not at such a fast rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the flying pig Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 a 12.7% fall from here sounds eminently plausible to me. that clearly woudln't get us back to pre-2002 levels but average wages have increased by quite a bit since then. in affordability terms we'd be back more or less on track, not as good as the 90s, but, who knows, maybe we won't be back there for a while, certainly not while interest rates are so low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWantItNow Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 What's wrong with having an opinion that house prices have a further 30% to fall? You don't have to agree with the opinion but you don't have to be rude. And for the record, is it really that unrealistic that we have a further 30% to come off house prices? I think you will find a lot of people on here think it will be more than that.All opinions, up to you to process them to make sense of things. Hold on my first statement was asking a question to illustrate a point, I'm not sure how that equates to being rude. Group consensus does not equal fact. The second statement could be viewed as rudeness or banter, depends how uptight you are. As for houses falling another 30%, no I don't think that will happen. I do however, much like yourself, think they are overpriced for John Q Housebuyer, but I'm not the force to change that am I? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puppee Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 properties have dropped 15% , where did they get that figure from i've read several times property prices fell 25-30% add the few months of price rises so say already 25% down plus their 13% = 38% , so i reckon 40% total peak to trough sounds about right to me i said this back in 07 if the govt had come clean and done it then the economy would be in a much better position now , but instead they had to mess about. A***HOLES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abharrisson Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asUXMel6RzegU.K. House Prices to Drop Further 13%, Bond Investors Forecast By Esteban Duarte Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices will plunge another 12.7 percent before bottoming out, according to bond investors surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Britain’s homes, which have already fallen 15 percent since October 2007, have further to fall, said 86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors. The U.K.’s biggest bank controlled by the government distributed the result of the survey in an e-mail to clients on Aug. 21. “General opinion was that U.K. housing has another down leg to take,†RBS said in the note. IMO, we have at least another 30% to drop before there is anything like a normal relationship between incomes, employment levels and house prices. It is natural for the banks to try to put on a brave face in the face of the worst recession in history. I'm sorry I don't get why this is RBS ramping... its a survey they did of bond investors, not their own, its not them who has published it it's bloomburg, they merely sent it to their own clients as part of an email.... Its probably a more neagitve piece of news than you have seen coming out of any bank in recent months...... your view of 30% may of course be entirely wrong... the maths may be right, but could equally be delivered with minimal falls over a long period equating to about 10% with inflation doing the rest. One might even view your view as ramping, its certainly not considered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Realist Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 C'mon now mate, this is getting silly. Every time I look in the main forum now it's either 90% from peak or 'Another 30%'. Is this one of those philosophical things on finite bounds within infinity? Like the permanently slowing tortoise who is always 10 seconds away from reaching the finish line? Every prediction is based on a sound, detailed analysis plus a dollop of wishful thinking! For those who believe that 'they' are conspiring against them......... 'The future is the only kind of property that the masters willingly concede to slaves' Albert Camus (1913-1960) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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