Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
LuckyOne

U.k. House Prices To Drop Further 13%

Recommended Posts

There seems to be quite a divergence of opinion about the future direction of house prices in the UK between the "cash rich, savvy" individuals and the "capital starved, fearful" professionals.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=asUXMel6Rzeg

U.K. house prices will plunge another 12.7 percent before bottoming out, according to bond investors surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

Britain’s homes, which have already fallen 15 percent since October 2007, have further to fall, said 86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors. The U.K.’s biggest bank controlled by the government distributed the result of the survey in an e-mail to clients on Aug. 21.

“General opinion was that U.K. housing has another down leg to take,†RBS said in the note.

RBS’s survey contradicts evidence U.K. real estate is starting to recover as the economy emerges from the worst recession in decades. House prices rose for a third month in July, according to Nationwide Building Society, while the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said Aug. 6 that prices will increase this year, reversing an earlier prediction of a drop of as much as 15 percent.

The RBS survey also forecasts the market for bonds backed by U.K. mortgages will deteriorate, the Edinburgh-based lender said. The poll showed that 63.6 percent of investors thought that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, will increase relative to benchmark rates. The remainder of respondents expected spreads to narrow.

Aoife Reynolds, a London-based spokeswoman for RBS, couldn’t immediately comment.

Nationwide Data

Other data are signaling Britain’s real-estate market is already bouncing back, with Nationwide Building Society’s last monthly survey showing average house prices rose 1 percent in June, and the Bank of England saying last month U.K. mortgage approvals climbed to a 14-month high. In London, luxury-home prices gained for a fourth month in July, climbing 1.5 percent, according to brokers Knight Frank.

The drop in house prices forecast in RBS’s survey adds to the 15 percent decline U.K. homes have already suffered since their peak in October 2007, Nationwide data show.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled last week that the worst of the global recession may be over. The U.S. housing market is already showing signs of recovery with sales of existing homes jumping 7.2 percent in July to the highest level since August 2007, the National Association of Realtors said Aug. 21.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

economists and investors predict more falls in property prices the banks know it, the govt knows it , and a lot of people are waiting for it to happen so why doesn't the govt just get it over with , so everybody knows where they stand and can start to plan ahead surely this would be a better way of ending this recession as people and businesses would know what they have to spend rather then saving just in case, property prices are already down 25% plus the predicted 13% so if they announced 40% off from peak things could get moving again instead of making things worse with all these bailouts and messing about when they haven't really got a clue what they are doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
economists and investors predict more falls in property prices the banks know it, the govt knows it , and a lot of people are waiting for it to happen so why doesn't the govt just get it over with , so everybody knows where they stand and can start to plan ahead surely this would be a better way of ending this recession as people and businesses would know what they have to spend rather then saving just in case, property prices are already down 25% plus the predicted 13% so if they announced 40% off from peak things could get moving again instead of making things worse with all these bailouts and messing about when they haven't really got a clue what they are doing.

Two reasons really:

- the economy is very fragile and could easily tip into a very nasty deflationary spiral

- there is an election coming up

On the other hand there will be another govt in a years' time, so just be patient

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Two reasons really:

- the economy is very fragile and could easily tip into a very nasty deflationary spiral

- there is an election coming up

On the other hand there will be another govt in a years' time, so just be patient

what does anybody think the extra 50bn is QE was for?

free dinners all round?

no...to support banks balance sheets as their assets are likely to fall another 15%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"in other news spline beats the experts to the stats"

How do you think he gets the TFS levels?

in the same way RBS gets the stats, he just gets to the raw figures quicker.

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bond street forcast...... :lol:

Are these the same ***** that failed to predict the worst downturns for decades?

Believe nothing in print, nothing published, not least from the viewpoint of criminals

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Listen, we are living through pay-back time...how can anyone realistically borrow more until they have worked to repay down what they have already borrowed in the past...

The market has stalled, the batteries are being re-charged....remember just to move sideways costs min £10k on expenses, charges, taxes...it would be foolish to add this to the mortgage and pay interest on it over many decades...the people are waking/have woken up. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello out there,

Switch on ceefax BB2 page 202.

Recession over.

House prices will be going up 13%. Wake up you're dreaming again.

OK sibbers, well, if it's your opinion against that of "86.4 percent of respondents to RBS’s poll of mortgage-backed debt investors" i know who i'll be putting my money on...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello out there,

Switch on ceefax BB2 page 202.

Recession over.

House prices will be going up 13%. Wake up you're dreaming again.

It will be an interesting contest between retail and wholesale.

My belief is that retail often pays way too much for things compared to wholesale, especially when markets are very uncertain.

Mr Sibley, I enjoy the provocative nature of your posts as they often elicit quite a laugh. There are only three possibilities that I can see :

- You are having a lot of fun provoking a group of people who take themselves too seriously from time to time (me included sometimes).

- You really are a retail muppet paying way too much for assets at the moment.

- This is only a mental masturbation exersize for you and that you really have "no skin in the game" no matter what the eventual outcome is.

All credit to you as you could be any one of these three "personas" ......

Edited by LuckyOne

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   291 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.