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Bbc Other News. Recession In Uk Seems 'at An End'

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Recession in UK seems 'at an end'

Page last updated at 23:00 GMT, Sunday, 23 August 2009 00:00 UK

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8217122.stm

Confidence among business professionals has seen the biggest rise for two years, suggesting the UK recession is at an end, a survey has said.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants' index of business confidence rose to 4.8 at the end of June, from -28.2 at the end of March.

However, chief executive Michael Izza warned against "underestimating" the challenges ahead for businesses.

The institute predicts the UK economy will grow by 0.5% in the third quarter.

Its forecast comes after the economy shrank by 0.8% in the second quarter of the year.

More than 1,000 chartered accountants were surveyed across England and Wales.

"This quarter's Business Confidence Monitor suggests that the UK recession is at an end," said Mr Izza.

"While there is no doubt that the UK economy is on its way to recovery, we shouldn't underestimate the challenges ahead for businesses."

About 41% of senior professionals were more confident about their business prospects in the next year, but only 6% were much more confident, indicating that some caution remains.

IT was the most optimistic sector, followed by banking, finance and insurance. The institute said the banking sector in particular had shown "a remarkable upturn given the turmoil of the last two years".

The least confident professions were health and education, as fears of cuts in the public sector grow.

£175bn of future tax payers' money. Not that remarkable. I'd be more concerned if it had made no difference at all.

So the recession is coming to an end in the City. Jolly good for them. Meanwhile, in other news...

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Recession in UK seems 'at an end'

Page last updated at 23:00 GMT, Sunday, 23 August 2009 00:00 UK

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8217122.stm

£175bn of future tax payers' money. Not that remarkable. I'd be more concerned if it had made no difference at all.

So the recession is coming to an end in the City. Jolly good for them. Meanwhile, in other news...

Love the picture. I always thought babylon 5 was a little too realistic. :o

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Guest AuntJess
It "seems" to me...pigs might fly !!!

Might?...might? Stuff that. I've seen them circling over my house. :rolleyes:

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Might?...might? Stuff that. I've seen them circling over my house. :rolleyes:

I'm struggling with this 'recession over' business. Surely it won't be over until the general level of prosperity (output) is restored to the long term mean.

What's so great about output dropping to a low level and then staying there?

Surely that means we could have a jobless 'recovery'?

Why aren't the Conservatives highlighting the true nature of the so called 'recovery'?

Confused. This all feels more political than economical to me.

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It's all about definition.

Get an economy measured on consumption, throw in free money and start printing some extra, drive debt up and so increase the money supply and guess what? You have "growth".

Meanwhile, unemployment grows as industry continues to lose ground to the rest of the World, the country falls ever more into debt and interest becomes a large government cost centre. There are no answers to restoring the old formula of reasonably high employment and trade surpluses. Debt is wealth, and that means we're out of the recession.

This recession, unlike previous ones, appears not to have led to anything being learned.

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It's all about definition.

Get an economy measured on consumption, throw in free money and start printing some extra, drive debt up and so increase the money supply and guess what? You have "growth".

Meanwhile, unemployment grows as industry continues to lose ground to the rest of the World, the country falls ever more into debt and interest becomes a large government cost centre. There are no answers to restoring the old formula of reasonably high employment and trade surpluses. Debt is wealth, and that means we're out of the recession.

This recession, unlike previous ones, appears not to have led to anything being learned.

Spot on, Bog brush.

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It "seems" to me...pigs might fly !!!

I'm more worried about getting chased by cows. According the the heap of sh1te that is the BBC it's a big problem.

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positive news on a Monday, surely not. No metion of redundancies etc. Just green shoots & cricket, for a positive Monday.

just wait until tomorrow or Wednesday, redundancies, shops closing down, funding lost, benefits up, will be back on the menu, with the obligatory positive start & end to that bulletin obviously.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
It's all about definition.

Get an economy measured on consumption, throw in free money and start printing some extra, drive debt up and so increase the money supply and guess what? You have "growth".

Meanwhile, unemployment grows as industry continues to lose ground to the rest of the World, the country falls ever more into debt and interest becomes a large government cost centre. There are no answers to restoring the old formula of reasonably high employment and trade surpluses. Debt is wealth, and that means we're out of the recession.

This recession, unlike previous ones, appears not to have led to anything being learned.

But we have the banks recapitalised, big bonuses, and now a steelworks running again.

Smells like recovereh.

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I'm more worried about getting chased by cows. According the the heap of sh1te that is the BBC it's a big problem.

Bullsh1t.

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IT was the most optimistic sector, followed by banking, finance and insurance. The institute said the banking sector in particular had shown "a remarkable upturn given the turmoil of the last two years".

The least confident professions were health and education, as fears of cuts in the public sector grow.

I guess nobody asked anyone who actually makes anything, or does anything truly economically productive?

Just the paper-shufflers and the public sector, which seems to be pretty much all we have left as an "economy" - well apart from flogging each other overpriced rabbit-hutches paid for with printed money.

What a sh!thole this country has become....

B

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I'm struggling with this 'recession over' business. Surely it won't be over until the general level of prosperity (output) is restored to the long term mean.

What's so great about output dropping to a low level and then staying there?

Surely that means we could have a jobless 'recovery'?

Why aren't the Conservatives highlighting the true nature of the so called 'recovery'?

Confused. This all feels more political than economical to me.

You're not confused.

This is why Mervyn King says the recovery will be long and hard and feel more like a recession.

As he says: "its the levels stupid".

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seems is the right word.

In the same way that my neighbour, with a large house, 2 cars, 2 holidays every year, 400K of mortgage debt and 70K of unsecured debt, seems well off.

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seems is the right word.

In the same way that my neighbour, with a large house, 2 cars, 2 holidays every year, 400K of mortgage debt and 70K of unsecured debt, seems well off.

The hypothesis test of debt is wealth.

To have £470k of debt seems very wealthy to me, it's not like the banks just give away money is it. He must have the wealth to pay it back?

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The hypothesis test of debt is wealth.

To have £470k of debt seems very wealthy to me, it's not like the banks just give away money is it. He must have the wealth to pay it back?

Assuming a future of decent employment, wage rises, house price rises, I'm sure he'll be fine. Hey, aren't we out of recession? :P

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Assuming a future of decent employment, wage rises, house price rises, I'm sure he'll be fine. Hey, aren't we out of recession? :P

Exactly.

Your neighbour is very wealthy and will probably vote Brown to preserve his wealth or debt (if you haven't mastered doublethink yet).......

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Part of the problem is a lack of clarity in the language. What counts as the end of the recession? What counts as a recovery? Is it when things stop getting worse and start getting better, or is it when we get back to where we were before the recession started?

There seem to be a lot of green shoots articles that mix these two up, thinking that as soon as we get a quarter of growth things will be as they were before.

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Part of the problem is a lack of clarity in the language. What counts as the end of the recession? What counts as a recovery? Is it when things stop getting worse and start getting better, or is it when we get back to where we were before the recession started?

There seem to be a lot of green shoots articles that mix these two up, thinking that as soon as we get a quarter of growth things will be as they were before.

Growth in GDP, as a technical recession ends once you get growth. Not sure if 0% would mark the end or not.

They system has an inbuilt bias to ensure it's easy to end a recession under how it's defined.

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