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ralphmalph

China Is Being Smart With It's Simulus

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China has been smart, full stop!

China has real wealth, UK/US has "Paper"..........very soon China will "Remind" the reat of the World of this fact.

Mike

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While it makes much noise about CO2 emissions, Labour has been deaf to warnings of a power crunch. We may soon be moving into a phase of history when

ill-prepared countries cannot be sure of obtaining energy – whatever the price.

Ah yes, the Danish wind company Vestas has just closed its turbine plant on the Isle of Wight and shed 425 jobs, citing Britain's Nimby culture and the red tape of the planning bureaucracy.

Vestas is switching to the US and China. Makes you weep.

Indeed, it's pitiful. One of the pitfalls of "democracy".

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But are the benefits to be gained from Solar Power at this stage yet?

Many say due to the expense to construct versus the long term saving it has got a long way to go?

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China has real wealth, UK/US has "Paper"

In fact they have the paper (US dollars) and we have all the things they have made over the last 10 years

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My brothers company

http://www.poolinsulation.com/cms.php?id_cms=7

"Professor Hassan Shirvani of Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge is one of the country's leading specialists of heat transfer in fluids working with Rolls Royce Jet Engines and Jaguar on technical issues. He has been working with the founder of TOPIC UK Ltd, Nigel Rose.

Shirvani and Rose believe there is much more research that can be carried out on the subject of energy loss and energy gains from swimming pools which both the pool industry and customers will benefit from financially..

Whilst energy losses from the ground are relatively simple to calculate due to the steady state of the soil temperature, the benefits of solar energy gains from the sun's rays into a swimming pool "the green house/solar heating of pools" is not. In other words, how energy is gained by the water from the sun, thus heating the swimming pool for free.

If you scuba dive you will know that the deeper you dive the darker and colder the sea becomes, this is because the sun light rays are absorbed by the water. As water is transparent it allows the rays to travel through it, but as it does so it loses energy as it has moved the water molecules which generate heat.

30% of the suns energy reflects off the earth's surface and goes back into the atmosphere, a clear swimming pool absorbs 100% of this radiant energy and magnifies it, like a pencil does in a glass of water."

Theres better methods for utilising solar energy instead of expensive to make photovoltaic cells.

Except I can put solar panels on my roof and walls without any opportunity loss.

Digging a swimming pool in my garden is another matter - in amy case what use is water at 35 degrees? Algae farm perhaps?

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But are the benefits to be gained from Solar Power at this stage yet?

Many say due to the expense to construct versus the long term saving it has got a long way to go?

Quite. The unfortunate fact is those who wait last for renewables will benefit most, as technology progresses they will spend only on the latest, most efficient stuff. China risks spunking billions on technology today that will be obsolete in 20 years time.

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30% of the suns energy reflects off the earth's surface and goes back into the atmosphere, a clear swimming pool absorbs 100% of this radiant energy and magnifies it, like a pencil does in a glass of water."

I'm not sure I see what the pencil's meant to be doing.

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While it makes much noise about CO2 emissions, Labour has been deaf to warnings of a power crunch. We may soon be moving into a phase of history when

ill-prepared countries cannot be sure of obtaining energy – whatever the price.

I fear you may be right.

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yes, on getting ourselves out of recession, dimwit. :rolleyes:

What's the point of getting out of the recession only to be propelled into the next by an energy crunch?

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China has plenty of pain to come, they have been left in a very precarious possition because of the manufacturing overcapacity they built up. I don't think things are as rosy for China as many believe.

Look at this graph and then read below, China is not at the same stage as the US in the below but the article give an idea of the sorts of returns you get on stimulus.

426795-124487207213678-Faisal-Humayun.JPG

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/fil...gust%202009.pdf

Are you stimulated yet? We hope you are, because we’ve just witnessed the largest

economic stimulus in the history of the world. Never before have so many government

dollars been thrown at the economy to prevent a depression. When added together, the

combined financial, monetary and fiscal stimuli in the US are more than the cost of the two

World Wars and “The New Deal†combined.

......

China deserves special mention here, because on a percentage of GDP basis, they are far

and away the greatest stimulator of all. While the US has made significant commitments,

their $2.8 trillion capital deployment to date only represents a mere 20% of their 2008 GDP.

Chinese government spending (combined with Chinese bank lending), on the other hand, is

completely unprecedented in the history of banking, and far outweighs the US stimulus in

scale and scope.

The Chinese have deployed 4 trillion yuan in stimulus spending through to 2010.6 In concert

with this stimulus, the Chinese central bank has scrapped its national lending quotas in order

to jump start their economic engine. In the first half of 2009, Chinese bank lending hit a

record high of 7.37 trillion yuan.7 Assuming their stimulus package is evenly split between

2009 and 2010, it equates to 8.37 trillion yuan of fiscal spending and lending by Chinese

banks. For perspective, the Chinese economy generated 13 trillion yuan in the first half of

2008.8 So in effect, the Chinese have injected a stimulus equivalent to 64% of their first

half 2008 GDP in the first half of 2009. Please understand us when we tell you that this is

unprecedented. The Chinese government has effectively spent and lent enough in six

months to buy 122 Ford Class aircraft carriers at US$8.1 billion a piece. It is akin to the US

government injecting (and US banks lending) almost $4.5 trillion USD to its citizens and

businesses before July 2009…an ungodly sum that would impact every asset class under

the sun. Is it any wonder then that the Shanghai stock exchange has more than doubled

from trough to peak since its November lows?

What is perhaps even more surprising, however, is the fact that the Chinese stimulus has

had a seemingly lackluster impact on the Chinese economy. Despite its massive size, the

stimulus program has only generated a 7.9% increase in their 2009 GDP. For perspective,

this represents a mere 1 trillion yuan return on a 9.37 trillion yuan stimulus - not a good

return on investment. So if the money hasn’t generated GDP growth, where did it go? It’s

gone everywhere. Their government-induced liquidity flood has “soaked†virtually every

speculative asset class in China. Copper, nickel, steel, Chinese equities, Chinese real estate

- they’ve all appreciated in spite of the obvious and acknowledged weakness in the global

economy. It’s been great in the short-term - but this money was LENT OUT remember, and

must eventually be paid back. It is not a sustainable long-term growth model, and in the

words of Wu Xiaoling, a previous deputy governor of the Chinese central bank, “will sow bad

seeds for [China’s] economic adjustment.â€9

Edited by Confounded

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Quite. The unfortunate fact is those who wait last for renewables will benefit most, as technology progresses they will spend only on the latest, most efficient stuff. China risks spunking billions on technology today that will be obsolete in 20 years time.

Maybe even less than that.

China could be the experiment to see what works and what doesn't.

Expensive mistakes could be being made.

Then again China could be making the correct decisions, time will tell.

All what is needed now is for the US to announce a ultra efficient solar cell just as China has completed all this work.

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I blame it on the type of people we elect to parliament. They are mostly lawyers, bureaucrats and professional politicians. The to and fro argument across the house reminds them of their days in the courthouse. Yet such people have no concept of the ideas of engineering and building something real (apart from social engineering). Thus we have no industrial policy at all, no energy policy. They do not see their job as one of building a productive nation. All they see their job as is one of making laws, ever more laws, and then some more laws. The nation could fall to abject poverty yet so long as we have a police state they will happy.

China is run by engineers. Most of their leadership is engineering trained. Thus they see a problem, such as energy and devise a plan to resolve it. They build silicon purification plants to make solar panels. They use these to generate free energy and sell them to the world. We have no option but to buy from them because our leaders are not leaders. They are petty bureaucrats obsessed with control but not with building anything. Sure the Chinese keep their currency low, that because they have seen the system in an engineering light and decided that will give them the result they want. Our leaders could not even begin to do so, that would take understanding and planning. Our leaders will simply make a law ordering everybody to be rich without any idea of the implementation.

The idea that PV tech will improve is true. But that does not make investment useless. The PV panels produced and put on your roof will still work and be working in 30 years. The companies that have been built to produce them will be at the forefront of new developments. It is not unlike improving silicon chip tech, once established Intel remains there. Our leadership simply has no vision. None of them have ever produced anything and thus it does not figure in their world view. We are over governed and the type of governance is that of the prison administration rather than that of the entrepreneur.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Except I can put solar panels on my roof and walls without any opportunity loss.

Digging a swimming pool in my garden is another matter - in amy case what use is water at 35 degrees? Algae farm perhaps?

Spyrogyra on toast is delicious.

Dig yourself a pool today.

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we have plenty of hot air generation from our very large public sector ( management division)

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I blame it on the type of people we elect to parliament. They are mostly lawyers, bureaucrats and professional politicians. The to and fro argument across the house reminds them of their days in the courthouse. Yet such people have no concept of the ideas of engineering and building something real (apart from social engineering). Thus we have no industrial policy at all, no energy policy. They do not see their job as one of building a productive nation. All they see their job as is one of making laws, ever more laws, and then some more laws. The nation could fall to abject poverty yet so long as we have a police state they will happy.

China is run by engineers. Most of their leadership is engineering trained. Thus they see a problem, such as energy and devise a plan to resolve it. They build silicon purification plants to make solar panels. They use these to generate free energy and sell them to the world. We have no option but to buy from them because our leaders are not leaders. They are petty bureaucrats obsessed with control but not with building anything. Sure the Chinese keep their currency low, that because they have seen the system in an engineering light and decided that will give them the result they want. Our leaders could not even begin to do so, that would take understanding and planning. Our leaders will simply make a law ordering everybody to be rich without any idea of the implementation.

The idea that PV tech will improve is true. But that does not make investment useless. The PV panels produced and put on your roof will still work and be working in 30 years. The companies that have been built to produce them will be at the forefront of new developments. It is not unlike improving silicon chip tech, once established Intel remains there. Our leadership simply has no vision. None of them have ever produced anything and thus it does not figure in their world view. We are over governed and the type of governance is that of the prison administration rather than that of the entrepreneur.

To be fair, it has to be pointed out that for many areas market forces work well - far better then many engineer-minded people think. However, this has been taken to extremes in the west.. to the degree that politicans can use it as an excuse for doing nothing, or shovelling cash at their private-sector future employers whilst repeating the mantra 'private good, public bad'.

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To be fair, it has to be pointed out that for many areas market forces work well - far better then many engineer-minded people think. However, this has been taken to extremes in the west.. to the degree that politicans can use it as an excuse for doing nothing, or shovelling cash at their private-sector future employers whilst repeating the mantra 'private good, public bad'.

Compare our energy situation with that of France.

The French like electing engineers too.

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Problem for china is that they have put a lot of their eggs in the coal basket. Not a bad move considering they are by far the #1 coal producer. However at current consumption and increases taken into account china only has 50 years of coal left before it needs to import that coal.

More reasonably china will need to convert to nuclear or renewables sometime before 2050 or find huge new deposits of coal.

Solar is probably the future of “green†energy in the west simply because it requires the least amount of human time to install and hence will probably ultimately be the cheapest.

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