_w_ Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 (edited) This is one of the better papers I've read this month. Everything I look at from a common sense perspective points to a bubble forming in financial markets, not a bull market. This paper seems to support this idea. Points of interest: - as participants become more experienced/immune, bubbles pop faster and faster. We've seen that over the last 9 years in dot coms, property and commodities. - a change of the rules such as large liquidity injections and price support generate new bubbles even though participants should be immune. http://www.scribd.com/doc/18661376/Bubble-Theories The theory seems to match reality, quite interesting. Edited August 22, 2009 by williamdb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 The Last Bubble. The Bubble to end all bubbles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 The central bankers are out of control. They are already thoroughly discredited, they, after all created and encouraged this mess in the first place (plus others) , they are the very last people who should be trusted to cure the ills. Yet another bubble (or series of bubbles in different sectors), maybe this time (or even the next followed by total revulsion of their ilk, their self-importance, their twisted loyalties and their tactics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 The Last Bubble.The Bubble to end all bubbles. Actually, the paper seems to indicates the bubbles become shorter and shallower as participants become more educated. It then takes another generation to start again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_w_ Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 The central bankers are out of control.They are already thoroughly discredited, they, after all created and encouraged this mess in the first place (plus others) , they are the very last people who should be trusted to cure the ills. Yet another bubble (or series of bubbles in different sectors), maybe this time (or even the next followed by total revulsion of their ilk, their self-importance, their twisted loyalties and their tactics. You've got to hand it to them, they're smart. But in theory this shouldn't change anything, in due course this one will burst too, I wouldn't give it more than 6 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 Actually, the paper seems to indicates the bubbles become shorter and shallower as participants become more educated. It then takes another generation to start again. Yup........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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