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Property Transactions July 2009

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6000 up from June non seasonally adjusted.

this is from the boom of April sales of course.

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In Bill Lumbergh voice: "M' yeah, that's just great".

So, will we see this trend reverse from August?

What exactly is the news here, property sales increase during typical buying season?

What next, sales of jumpers rise dramatically over Winter.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
There was a solid uplift in residential property transactions in July, as recorded by HMRC through stamp duty returns.

Provisional figures show seasonally adjusted transactions rose month-on-month by 16.9%, from 65,000 to 76,000.

Data: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm

hmrctrans0709.gif

That's nice dear.

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NEWS FLASH: London, 21 August -- The British Department of Economic Factors has announced that single family home sales will no be removed from consideration in calculating the nation's Gross Domestic Product. Replacing it as a heavily weighted factor will be Gross Domestic Blood Pressure. The GDBP is expected to provide the recently lagging GDP with a considerable boost, especially as the nation approaches the highly anticipated Christmas buying season.

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Point one: It's a big uptick. Perma-bears: deal with it.

Point two: Bloo Loo is right. We already knew about this. It only comes as a shock to those who had covered their ears and sung lalalala about enquiries rising and then surveyors getting more confident and then mortgage approvals rising.

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Seasonal adjusted July 07 140K

Seasonal adjusted July 08 69K

Seasonal adjusted July 09 76K

That's the data from the link but I could have copied them incorrectly.

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And here's the BoE approvals for July/09 from yesterday's Trends in Lending - up 6.4% MoM in July to 54.4k from 50.2k in June, UK lending panel data, SA. These should give a good 'heads up' on the official BoE approval fiigues out at the end of this month.

Updated chart, with yesterdays July2009 figures (red dots)

104i5jd.png

Edited by spline

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And here's the BoE approvals for July/09 from yesterday's Trends in Lending - up 6.4% MoM in July to 54.4k from 50.2k in June, UK lending panel data, SA. These should give a good 'heads up' on the official BoE approval fiigues out at the end of this month.

Updated chart, with yesterdays July2009 figures (red dots)

104i5jd.png

what I find interesting about this chart, thank you Mr S, is the Blue line...lending by major lenders.

It seems the others, building societies, specialist lenders, etc etc have all but disappeared.

We have all heard of the difficulties that Building socs are having raising capital, but the other specialist lenders just seem to have disappeared.

the question is, are the majors approaching their capacity to lend, which was at around 60 thousand at peak.

and why was this level as it was...was it that the majors have been lending prudently all along, but through their subs were able to lend imprudently?

is 60,000 the ceiling in this climate?

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Ok, so we know there's a bounce taking place.

There's 2 questions that we probably don't know.

1) Is this the recovery? Is the recession over (depression avoided)

Not for me. Very little has changed. Everyone is in the same position, with a load of govt debt, QE to be reversed,

added to the pile. Second leg down could (or should) be worse than the crash might have been without messing

around so much.

2) To what extent can and will the govt shape the burden of the crash (can't think of a better way to word it).

By this I mean, will those in debt suffer or will the savers take the pain. To what extent can (and should) the

govt control this.

In the next year, we'll have some (or all) of these

- Public sector cuts

- Tax rises

- QE reversal

- Higher IRs

- Gilt strike

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Ok, so we know there's a bounce taking place.

There's 2 questions that we probably don't know.

1) Is this the recovery? Is the recession over (depression avoided)

Not for me. Very little has changed. Everyone is in the same position, with a load of govt debt, QE to be reversed,

added to the pile. Second leg down could (or should) be worse than the crash might have been without messing

around so much.

2) To what extent can and will the govt shape the burden of the crash (can't think of a better way to word it).

By this I mean, will those in debt suffer or will the savers take the pain. To what extent can (and should) the

govt control this.

In the next year, we'll have some (or all) of these

- Public sector cuts

- Tax rises

- QE reversal

- Higher IRs

- Gilt strike

Why will we have QE reversal?

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what I find interesting about this chart, thank you Mr S, is the Blue line...lending by major lenders.

It seems the others, building societies, specialist lenders, etc etc have all but disappeared.

We have all heard of the difficulties that Building socs are having raising capital, but the other specialist lenders just seem to have disappeared.

the question is, are the majors approaching their capacity to lend, which was at around 60 thousand at peak.

and why was this level as it was...was it that the majors have been lending prudently all along, but through their subs were able to lend imprudently?

is 60,000 the ceiling in this climate?

And what effect would that have on the market?

After reading RM's HPI I asked earlier this week:

HPC Link

...what effect will low approval numbers have on the market, "24% below 2006 level even by 2013"?

If CEBR previously thought that low approval numbers would result in 40% + house price falls, then what will low approvals + low supply + few FTB's unless property values start to ACTUALLY fall + interest rates creeping up, have on the market?

Surely if RM is right and only the cash rich or someone with 50% deposit have a chance to buy property currently....regardless of the supply and demand argument....buyers are going to want REDUCTIONS 25% + and lenders NEED reductions to get lending down to sensible / sustainable levels do they not, and I assume EA's need some sales instead of thousands of SSTC going nowhere and therefore need sellers to start to realise that we are no longer in a 2007 market but a very different market place that needs to adjust to funding levels last seen pre 2001 or pre RMBS.

YOUR THOUGHTS PLEASE

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And what effect would that have on the market?

After reading RM's HPI I asked earlier this week:

HPC Link

well, for me, it means an end to LIAR LOANS, probably the biggest contributor to the Bubble.

And before the Anti LL brigade dive in, by Liar loans I include the entire process, including the buyer, the broker the banker and the valuer.

For me this means that either, as Hamish kept saying, houses are for the rish and well salaried only, or, more likely, prices will have to fall to meet mass market buyers....the lower entry levels need to be filled to support the upper levels of the ladder.

BTL could fill this, but if prices start to fall again, they are going to be even harder to get.

The Demise of the specialist lender is a good thing...the main thing they were specialist at was funnelling Investment bank turds into the commission fire.

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what I find interesting about this chart, thank you Mr S, is the Blue line...lending by major lenders.

It seems the others, building societies, specialist lenders, etc etc have all but disappeared.

We have all heard of the difficulties that Building socs are having raising capital, but the other specialist lenders just seem to have disappeared.

the question is, are the majors approaching their capacity to lend, which was at around 60 thousand at peak.

and why was this level as it was...was it that the majors have been lending prudently all along, but through their subs were able to lend imprudently?

is 60,000 the ceiling in this climate?

It's a good question.... 60,000-80,000 (probably more like 80,000) is I think assumed to be something like the stability level for the market ( eg pretty much a flat market)... so we are there or there abouts albeit in a heavilly enhanced (by the govt) situation and at a seasonally higher point.

It comes as no surprise that something like 90% of the drop off in lending has fallen from the "non-major" lenders... they were once a very large part of the market... all thats left is mainstream lenders lending to mainstream properties and mainstream clients.

To answer the question is 60,000 the max in this environment.. I should say so yes, partially as there appears to be little of any competition... if XYZ bank called the bottom now and said they'd lend on sensible terms to 90% then the total potential would rise, if some of the smaller lenders could access funds again and started up again then some types of people and housing would sudenly become mortgageable and the amount would rise again... but as we are in an iffy market with a very limited range of lenders 60,000 could very well be the max.

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What exactly is the news here, property sales increase during typical buying season?

Didn't happen in '08. Late winter / early spring really has been a turning point, hopefully won't be going up for much longer but with all the manipulation I have no idea what will happen next.

regards

J

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Didn't happen in '08. Late winter / early spring really has been a turning point, hopefully won't be going up for much longer but with all the manipulation I have no idea what will happen next.

regards

J

True, though if this is the best that the market can muster after what the Govt has thrown at it, i'm not going to be beating a path to the nearest EA just yet.

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Also the BoE Approvals and HMRC charts above are seasonally adjusted, so (at least in principle) are corrected for the typical ‘buying season’ distortion.

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Also the BoE Approvals and HMRC charts above are seasonally adjusted, so (at least in principle) are corrected for the typical ‘buying season’ distortion.

Even still, if this is the best that can be achieved with billions in public funds and bank nationalisations then I won't hold my breath for its continuation unless you want to end up like Iceland.

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I thought I'd graph the financial years of HMRC non seasonally adjusted +40K UK transactions.

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm

My interpretation is that in 'normal' years (not 2007) the market is steady from June to about December, falling away before picking up in spring.

When do people expect a recovery to 2005,2006,1st half 2007 volumes ? (Looking at the chart, with house price indexes stabilising, and mortgage deposits still very high I'm ruling out 2009/10 financial year)

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