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brianc_li

When Does The Dead Cat Become A Bull?

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Like most on here I still feel UK house prices have a bit to fall. That is why I still label myself a bear. Here I just want to ask about equites.

Over the time I´ve been here I have seen many who refer to the ´dead cat bounce´ and ´bear trap´. Nothing wrong with that, if that is what you genuinely believe. My question is, at what stage, if ever, will you accept that it is not such a thing rather a recovering market.

For what its worth, whilst I think we may still see a drop of 20% or so from current levels, I don´t see us hitting those March lows again. I feel that was the bottom of the market.

We´ve now seen global equity markets rising for over five months since their lows in early March. This appears to be based on stabilisation of the financial system and improved corporate earnings. Despite this many on here are still forecasing meltdown. If they are higher, say until the end of the year, will you then still be saying that it is a bear trap?

In sort, how much longer or by how much more will markets have to rise before you stop predicting dire things to come?

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We´ve now seen global equity markets rising for over five months since their lows in early March. This appears to be based on stabilisation of the financial system and improved corporate earnings. Despite this many on here are still forecasing meltdown. If they are higher, say until the end of the year, will you then still be saying that it is a bear trap?

In sort, how much longer or by how much more will markets have to rise before you stop predicting dire things to come?

Are you serious about that?

The banks have not recovered, the situation is worse, they are lying.

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Like most on here I still feel UK house prices have a bit to fall. That is why I still label myself a bear. Here I just want to ask about equites.

Over the time I´ve been here I have seen many who refer to the ´dead cat bounce´ and ´bear trap´. Nothing wrong with that, if that is what you genuinely believe. My question is, at what stage, if ever, will you accept that it is not such a thing rather a recovering market.

For what its worth, whilst I think we may still see a drop of 20% or so from current levels, I don´t see us hitting those March lows again. I feel that was the bottom of the market.

We´ve now seen global equity markets rising for over five months since their lows in early March. This appears to be based on stabilisation of the financial system and improved corporate earnings. Despite this many on here are still forecasing meltdown. If they are higher, say until the end of the year, will you then still be saying that it is a bear trap?

In sort, how much longer or by how much more will markets have to rise before you stop predicting dire things to come?

It's a BULL trap, not a bear trap. When people believe we've hit the bottom, they pile back into the market which then resumes its downward trend.

Personally, I think there are more gains to be had in the stock market before it heads south - we might hit 5,000 here, for instance. If, however, it maintains growth well into next year I'll have been proved wrong, I guess. Now THAT'S a bear trap. ;)

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Like most on here I still feel UK house prices have a bit to fall. That is why I still label myself a bear. Here I just want to ask about equites.

Over the time I´ve been here I have seen many who refer to the ´dead cat bounce´ and ´bear trap´. Nothing wrong with that, if that is what you genuinely believe. My question is, at what stage, if ever, will you accept that it is not such a thing rather a recovering market.

For what its worth, whilst I think we may still see a drop of 20% or so from current levels, I don´t see us hitting those March lows again. I feel that was the bottom of the market.

We´ve now seen global equity markets rising for over five months since their lows in early March. This appears to be based on stabilisation of the financial system and improved corporate earnings. Despite this many on here are still forecasing meltdown. If they are higher, say until the end of the year, will you then still be saying that it is a bear trap?

In sort, how much longer or by how much more will markets have to rise before you stop predicting dire things to come?

When the existing QE is removed from the system and they keep going up, then it may become a bull market. Shame equity proces don't seem to have anything to do with reality, though.

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It's a BULL trap, not a bear trap. When people believe we've hit the bottom, they pile back into the market which then resumes its downward trend.

Personally, I think there are more gains to be had in the stock market before it heads south - we might hit 5,000 here, for instance. If, however, it maintains growth well into next year I'll have been proved wrong, I guess. Now THAT'S a bear trap. ;)

indeed, the bear trap is at the start of a bubble where bears think the market falls are to continue, and they miss out on some gains.

just wonder whats driving this latest boost to sales numbers....could it be credit?...well it seems cash buyers are in great evidence, and what with all the hyperinflationery news out there ( for anyone who is even bothered) buying an asset could be seen as a prudent move.

sadly, bottom rung entry level prices are still 4 times salary, where averages are 6 times salary.

so lets llok at drivers for a house mover market.

the FTB buys at 4 times salary, thats 10% down with a 90k mortgage.

wages are more or less static.

to move to move up he needs to pay 150K

he sells, loses 4K in moving costs, and needs now a 140K mortgage...thats 7 times salary: unless wages rise 75% in the time he wishes to move ( say what 3 years) then it aint gonna happen.

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I note that none of you thus far have attempted to answer my specific question:

In sort, how much longer or by how much more will markets have to rise before you stop predicting dire things to come?

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I note that none of you thus far have attempted to answer my specific question:

never.

now answer it for us please.

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They wont they are automatic spam engines not real people.

US banks with default rates of 6.8%...unemployment rising fast....output down....how is this a stable financial market?

come on bulls, reason it out......convince me.

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I note that none of you thus far have attempted to answer my specific question:

Whilst becoming more and more aware of the implications of living in non-linear times, and whilst also being a "bear of little brain".....I have to conclude, along with a lot of other people that what we are witnessing is a blip.

I asked a Q here the other day related to RM's latest HPI HPC Link

If RM believes that approvals will not reach the levels considered needed for sustainable recovery and that lending levels are going to be low for a long time to come and that only cash rich can afford property etc etc.....none of it looks like the summer of 2009 , (which many believed would see a dead cat bounce) will continue.

So many properties are NOT SELLING, maybe Under Offer or SSTC but very few selling.....lenders do not want to lend at the hugely inflated 2007 values....buyers do not want to lose 20% + on a properties value in a year.....

Despite BDEV shooting up this week I will still stick with Dr Bubb's explanation so beautifully illustrated in these images:

HPC Link Swings and Rug Pulls

Dr Bubb Many HPCers are "stuck in the crowd" and influenced heavily by the resurgent mania around them.

(Maybe it is easier for me to be detached from it, living here in Hong Kong - we have our own manias here.)

This will die. And the higher the sentiment swings, the bigger the disappointment and disillusion when it

(eventually) swings back the other way.

When prices are speeding downwards in a few months time, after the rug pull, I will remind people that

the very painful next stage of the crash, would not have been fully possible without the huge surge in false

hopes that we are seeing now.

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Just to remind some, I was specifically talking about equities rather than house prices.

Yes it may be a bilp. Over five months is rather long to refer to as one but I´ll readily admit that.

IF global equity markets are similar to or higher than present levels at the end of this year will that still be ´a blip´?

How much longer to markets have to be above March 09 levels before some of you will agree that the bottom has been hit?

At least Boo Loo has given an answer although ´never´ I´d attribute more to a state of mind rather than being any rational contribution. :P

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I note that none of you thus far have attempted to answer my specific question:

Irrelevant. If house-prices (I couldn't care two figs for the markets) don't come down to reasonable levels I won't be buying. If we're still seeing positive Nationwide/Halifax reports through the Autumn i'll be concerned.

And you?

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Just to remind some, I was specifically talking about equities rather than house prices.

Yes it may be a bilp. Over five months is rather long to refer to as one but I´ll readily admit that.

IF global equity markets are similar to or higher than present levels at the end of this year will that still be ´a blip´?

How much longer to markets have to be above March 09 levels before some of you will agree that the bottom has been hit?

At least Boo Loo has given an answer although ´never´ I´d attribute more to a state of mind rather than being any rational contribution. :P

I dont recall posters generally stating the equities markets as being in a bull trap.

more like a low volumes, QE led, bankers ponzi.

when the men come back from holidays, we will see some change...or not...the market can remain irrational longer than my pockets can be drained....that I DO KNOW for sure.

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In sort, how much longer or by how much more will markets have to rise before you stop predicting dire things to come?

A leading question.

Let's see how earnings match up to share prices.

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I note that none of you thus far have attempted to answer my specific question:

I think people are telling you that it is a bad question.

We could have 1 million on the FTSE and still have an economy that is FUBAR.

You need to stop looking at the spreadsheet game that is being played and start looking at the real economy.

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Just to remind some, I was specifically talking about equities rather than house prices.

Yes it may be a bilp. Over five months is rather long to refer to as one but I´ll readily admit that.

IF global equity markets are similar to or higher than present levels at the end of this year will that still be ´a blip´?

How much longer to markets have to be above March 09 levels before some of you will agree that the bottom has been hit?

At least Boo Loo has given an answer although ´never´ I´d attribute more to a state of mind rather than being any rational contribution. :P

Where do you find those " ´ " ? I've only got " ` " and " ' " and " " " on my keyboard.

Never trust someone who uses " ´ ".

Bloomberg does something else entirely. I don't approve of that either.

To answer your question, if this retrace becomes a full blown reversal. But it can't and it won't (in real terms at least). See what I did there with the ´hyper-inflation hedge´?

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The answer is very simple, and is the same as to the question "How do you know when a bull market is not a bull market"

That answer is, of course..

With hindsight!

Edited by libspero

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I shall be inclined to switch to 'long' after the next significantly lower low, whenever that comes. Perhaps in 2010 or 2011.

My aim is to attempt to do no worse than treading water until we have some sort of crescendo panic - which I don't belief we have yet seen - which should be the start of a secular equities bull. It could take some time to get there, but I'm hoping to have perhaps another 20-30 years in me.

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