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Good Article In The Economist

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Given these downside risks, the recent pop in house prices will probably fizzle. Most economists expect them to fall by a further 5-10 percentage points, to their long-term trend line at roughly 40% below their peak, and not to reach bottom until some time in 2010. The pessimists predict they will go crashing through the trend-line to as little as half their 2006 high.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, no fools when it comes to housing, hint at several years of stagnation. They argue that the rate of home ownership, currently just over 67%, will fall back to the 64-65.5% level that prevailed before prices took off in the mid-1990s, cutting deeply into demand for properties. This view is supported by a recent Fed study, which found that more than half of the boom-era rise in ownership was due to “innovative†mortgage products, many of which are now history.

A sobering article. Where's Sibley?

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Me :unsure:

Although how much above 10% is a different question.

Ooops me misreading it a bit, I thought it was claiming to peak around 10% which I thought was a bit optimistic.

When they are saying it will peak above 10%, so that could be 15%, 20%....

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