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Unexpected Rise In U.s. Jobless Claims

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Jobless Claims Show Surprise Gain Amid Fears on Economy

Published: Thursday, 20 Aug 2009 | 8:35 AM ET Text Size By: Reuters

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, a government report showed on Thursday, as companies continued to cut payrolls amid uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 from 561,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new claims slipping to 550,000 last week from a previously reported 558,000. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32489434

Not really unexpected though is it? ;)

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Recovereh?

eh? recover?

croaks the crippled, emaciated, hollowed out, downsized, bled dry debt junkie on life support that is the US economy.

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eh? recover?

croaks the crippled, emaciated, hollowed out, downsized, bled dry debt junkie on life support that is the US economy.

Why unexpected? Every commentator says unemployment will keep rising and is a lagging indicator.

The only question I have is whether it really is a lagging indicator when the economic recovery depends so much on consumer spending which is unlikely to rise while unemployment is increasing.

Perhaps the government should intervene directly in the jobs market rather than using the stimulus bailing out banks in the hope they will lend to failing companies.

They could have vast numbers of people polishing sidewalks or painting stones. That would bring unemployment down and get everyone spending again

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eh? recover?

croaks the crippled, emaciated, hollowed out, downsized, bled dry debt junkie on life support that is the US economy.

No no no, it is a recovery, the root cause of the problem has been resolved. :huh::o:ph34r:

Just look a the US Delinquencies rate.

Delinquencies_0.jpg

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The only thing unexpected about these figures is that they have seen the light of day. I didn't think anything was allowed to taint the rosy picture of global recovery.

The clerk who was supposed to massage err, rubber-stamp this report will have some explaining to do.

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No no no, it is a recovery, the root cause of the problem has been resolved. :huh::o:ph34r:

Just look a the US Delinquencies rate.

Delinquencies_0.jpg

It's considerably "more more worse" if you include foreclosures on fixed-rate prime...

MBA: Record 13.2 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q2

From the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Delinquencies Continue to Climb, Foreclosures Flat in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.24 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2009, up 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2009, and up 283 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

...

The delinquency rate breaks the record set last quarter. The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.30 percent, an increase of 45 basis points from the first quarter of 2009 and 155 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure and at least one payment past due was 13.16 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.

...

“While the rate of new foreclosures started was essentially unchanged from last quarter’s record high, there was a major drop in foreclosures on subprime ARM loans. The drop, however, was offset by increases in the foreclosure rates on the other types of loans, with prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase. As a sign that mortgage performance is once again being driven by unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans now account for one in three foreclosure starts. A year ago they accounted for one in five....†said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.

emphasis added

We're all subprime now!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/...f-mortgage.html

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Perhaps the government should intervene directly in the jobs market rather than using the stimulus bailing out banks in the hope they will lend to failing companies.

They could have vast numbers of people polishing sidewalks or painting stones. That would bring unemployment down and get everyone spending again

Surely the US needs diversity outreach coordinators etc. at least as much as we do?

Is US diversity outreach adequately coordinated, or is it not?

They could at least set up a quango or two to look into the question.

Blatant incompetence.

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Why unexpected? Every commentator says unemployment will keep rising and is a lagging indicator.

The only question I have is whether it really is a lagging indicator when the economic recovery depends so much on consumer spending which is unlikely to rise while unemployment is increasing.

Perhaps the government should intervene directly in the jobs market rather than using the stimulus bailing out banks in the hope they will lend to failing companies.

They could have vast numbers of people polishing sidewalks or painting stones. That would bring unemployment down and get everyone spending again

Unemployment is only a lagging indicator in manufacturing/inventory recessions (i.e. the layoffs only last until the overproduction has been cleared). In credit-driven recessions it is a coincident indicator.

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every fracking bad indicator,every good indicator is fracking unexpected!

This is what happens when people think its all getting better.

good news is unexpected because things ARE bad, yet the optimistic press having peddled good news and hope, dont expect the bad news.

the jobless and those firms losing business...they KNOW how bad it is...but optimists looking at wall street and bankers see nothing but good news......course, one lot have been suckling at the public teat while the other is in the public trash can looking for scraps..

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