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ralphmalph

Why No Talk About The Rise In Mortgage Lending In July

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Is it all mortgaging including remortgaging?

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I think it was Hamish_Mctavish who used to say that most of the Bears on HPC suffer from 'Confirmation Bias'.

Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions...

Bullish items are normally dismissed as a short term blip..

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CML

Yes. It includes remortgaging. But CML suggest the increase is more likely attributed to house purchase.

Edited by Morgs

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
CML

Yes. It includes remortgaging.

So it's not necessarily a rise in lending for new purchases?

Or is it?

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Well slap my @rse and call me Vera.

Higher mortgage lending in peak house buying time of the year.

I bet more ice creams were sold in July 09 than Jan 09 too.

Edited by pie-eater

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Well slap my @rse and call me Vera.

Higher mortgage lending in peak house buying time of the year.

I bet more ice creams were sold in July 09 than Jan 09 too.

Ah but were 26% more ice creams sold in July than June?

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I think it was Hamish_Mctavish who used to say that most of the Bears on HPC suffer from 'Confirmation Bias'.

Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions...

I don't think it's a tendancy that's limited to bears or any other type of person - in my experience, everyone exhibits confirmation bias in some way.

Humans seem to excel at it.

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Torygraph: (last para)

However, it cautioned that activity still remained subdued by historic standards, with lending last month the lowest for July since 2001 and well down on the average of £27bn seen during the past seven years.

Why no talk about that? Despite all the printy printy?

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Well slap my @rse and call me Vera.

Higher mortgage lending in peak house buying time of the year.

I bet more ice creams were sold in July 09 than Jan 09 too.

Pretty much what I was going to say. The problem with all these reports is that they can be matched in a number of ways, with the previous month, the previous year or even 5 years ago (how often do we hear the words "since records began").

The fact mortgage lending went up at the peak time of the year is hardly shocking, especially at a time when prices are lower than they have been for some time.

I'd totally accept the bears look and focus on the negative, but all these reports are produced by interested parties with an agenda.

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I think it was Hamish_Mctavish who used to say that most of the Bears on HPC suffer from 'Confirmation Bias'.

Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions...

Bullish items are normally dismissed as a short term blip..

Would that be the same confirmation bias that underwrote the entire disaster of assuming Houses Prices Only Go Up-up-up!, with the resulting debt crisis and bad loan contagion threatening the entire planet?

That bias was followed by utter imbeciles as it was demonstrably implausible and doomed.

The bear bias that this InstaRecovery is synthetic and temporary is hardly in that league of wishful thinking.

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The [bOE TRENDS IN LENDING] showed that mortgage approvals by major UK lenders rose to 53,400 in July from 50,200 previously. This equates to a Gbp0.5 bn increase in gross lending from Gbp9.0 bn in June and is the highest level this year so far. Meanwhile, lending to businesses declined further, falling by Gbp0.9 bn in July, but at least the pace of the decline slowed from a drop of Gbp3.5 bn prev. The BoE noted that net lending to business fell across all the sectors. Recall that the BoE had left their rate at a lowly 0.5% at their last Aug mtg while upping their QE by Gbp50 bn to take the total to Gbp175 bn to improve lending conditions. Note, BoE gov King voted in favour of an even bigger increase of Gbp75 bn.

Why no talk about the continuing decline in lending to businesses that may actually be making things - but I suppose selling more overpriced houses to each other is where the real recovery is.

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Last year, I sold 1000 aneros in July. In June 2009 I sold just 500 aneros. Last month, I shifted 630 aneros which although a 26% increase is still way down on last years figures considering July is possibly the gayest month on the calender.

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Its clear that the colossal amount of money pumped into the system is having the desired effect. I'm afraid this lot have shown that they will do anything to keep the house price merry go round going.

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I think it was Hamish_Mctavish who used to say that most of the Bears on HPC suffer from 'Confirmation Bias'.

Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions...

Bullish items are normally dismissed as a short term blip..

The problem with stories like this for the bulls is that they are designed to induce thousands of numpties to put their house back on the market, further depressing prices. The banks want a crash more than the bears do, we after all are sitting back enjoying the spectacle of a dying "wealth store" :lol: while the banks are desperate to get some income streams going. They will have their crash, one way or another. Hows that for "confirmation bias"?

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8211204.stm

I thought this would have been met by a cacophony of 80% lower than the largest month we had in the boom type comments?

Are you starting to lose the faith?

What we really need to be concerned with is the fact that it is these sorts of people looking to borrow.

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Well slap my @rse and call me Vera.

Higher mortgage lending in peak house buying time of the year.

I bet more ice creams were sold in July 09 than Jan 09 too.

Indeed.

Ralphmalph's mind is a very interesting place.

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I did some analysis which suggested that higher deposits were resulting in more expensive mortgages being given on more expensive homes.

In other words, people with cash were being tempted to buy properties.

Ditto,

I have seen data that shows, while volumes are down across the board, areas housing traditionally wealthy professional families / middle-aged couples have shown markedly less of a decline. In other words areas of more expensive homes take a significantly larger share of the market than in 2007.

This effect began about 12 months ago.

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How about -

1 million + being laid off, some with huge lump sums/parachutes.

Partner still working so the property ladder brainwashed 'invest' in a house.

Give a money donation to child for deposit on rabbit hutch!

These same people, have probably been artificially keeping car dealers, electrical goods and all the other 'big item' sellers ticking over - over the last 15months or so!

We keep seeing loads of reports of 'Expats' "returning from" eg Dubai, Spain etc

It ain't rocket science!

Spellchek

Edited by erranta

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