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Britain Probably Missed Out On 'fat Month' For Tax Receipts

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Economists are forecasting that the Treasury had a deficit of £600m in July - its first in that month for 13 years - compared with a surplus of £5.2bn in the same month last year. The figures will be released at 9:30am.

The state of Britain's public finances has raced up the political agenda as the next general election looms. David Cameron, the Conservative Party leader, has warned that the Government could default on its debts given the scale of borrowing. The recession has savaged tax receipts, driven up spending on benefits such as jobless claims and left the Treasury needing to sell a record £220bn in bonds to fill the gap.

"July is normally a fat month, but not this time," David Page, an economist at Investec told Bloomberg.

Receipts into the Treasury in the first three months of this financial year - April, May and June - are already 10pc down on the same period last year.

"July is normally one of the more benign months for the Exchequer -- it has registered a surplus in every year since 1996 -- but we doubt that the numbers will make for comfortable reading this time," said Philip Shaw, an economist.

I'm sure we'll get fat months over the last couple of quarters due to the recovery.

Will these forecasts be proved correct? Or will the figures be worse or even possible be better?

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Guest KingCharles1st

Gordon KNEW it was going to be a FAT Quarter, that's why he decided to relax and take a holiday..

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The July deficit was eight billion quid, so much for the economists predictions.

The country's finances are far worse now than in 1976 when the government went cap in hand to the IMF.

But don't despair: Merv the Swerve stands ready by the printing press with his trusty can of WD-40.

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Predicted 600m actual 8000m, they can't even get the order of magnitude right and they're now 'predicting' we'll have growth on Q3?

...and just where is all that printy printy going?...

[WORSE THAN EXPECTED] The UK govt's cumulative PSNB saw a Gbp 8.0 bn borrowing in Jul, much worse than the expected small Gbp 0.6 bn print. The recession is taking its toll of govt finances, although the Jul cumulative borrowing is down on the revised Gbp 13.4 bn Jun record as seasonal factors play through. Indeed, the mthly PSNCR printed a small Gbp 0.2 bn requirement whilst a net credit in the region of Gbp 5.6 bn was expected. Meanwhile, Jul provisional M4 grew slightly faster than expected at 13.6% y/y, a tad above the prior 13.3%, suggesting that there may be some small leakage from QE starting to enter the system.

Growth OK....

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