Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 CPI (MOM): 0% CPI (YOY): 1.8% RPI (MOM): 0% RPI (YOY): -1.4% RPIX: 1.2% All over expectations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 RPI (YOY): -1.4% Thats the one that counts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimble Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 CPI (MOM): 0%CPI (YOY): 1.8% RPI (MOM): 0% RPI (YOY): -1.4% RPIX: 1.2% All over expectations This time last year oil was at $140, VAT was 17.5% and base rates were 5.5%, right? And in December last year oil was $35, VAT cut to 15% and base rate were 2%. All these numbers will be strongly rising by year end when those deflationary factors fall out, unless sterling rallies strongly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 CPI (MOM): 0%CPI (YOY): 1.8% RPI (MOM): 0% RPI (YOY): -1.4% RPIX: 1.2% All over expectations CPI (MOM): 0% - over expectations, you sure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 RPI (YOY): -1.4%Thats the one that counts. No it isn't, RB. You called it right with the dollar last year, well done, but I'm certain you're wrong here. The high oil and gas prices of 2008 will drop out of the year-on-year inflation figures in the next 2-3 months, by October 2009 oil will be higher in price than it was in Oct 2008, and all these inflation figures will start rising from where they are now. ALL of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
co2_is-not_man_made Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 RPI (YOY): -1.4%Thats the one that counts. I cant see how it is relevant, it is dragged lower by reduced mortgage repayments and therefore is not a representation as to what is happening to prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_chris c-t_* Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 (edited) RPI (YOY): -1.4%Thats the one that counts. Nah, the month on month numbers are rising again. Deflation over. By January, we'll be at +1.5% RPI even if the index value (213.4) doesn't change at all till then! 2009 01 210.1 2009 02 211.4 2009 03 211.3 2009 04 211.5 2009 05 212.8 2009 06 213.4 Edited August 18, 2009 by chris c-t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 (edited) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8206748.stm Most economists were predicting 1.5% CPI (YOY). 1.8% is way above expectations. And RPI rose from -1.6 to -1.4% - another shock (predicted -1.7%). The inflationistas are correct. The BoE is wrong AGAIN! 'Earlier this month, the Bank said it was "more likely than not" that the annual rate of growth in consumer prices would temporarily fall below 1% in the autumn' CPI will not fall below 1.5% this year - and if it does fall to 1.5%, watch the rebound :-). The BoE are being purposefully misleading, as per usual. Edited August 18, 2009 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
57percent Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 The numbers are much higher than expected - especially given King's comments not long ago.You do get the feeling that King is not really being serious about keeping below the 2% target. He does want inflation - above the stated target but probably not above 5% say. But to do that he has to scare the living daylights about deflation and the economy so that he can carry on with his monetary easing / low pound policy. I think he thinks a dose of inflation, a competitive £ and helping out with hmg's deficit is the only thing that he can do in the wider scheme of things. tbh - he's probably right. But there are inevitable winners and losers in that policy. And it is definitely not fair who they might be. Agree. They'll aim for somewhere between 5-10% and pretend it's only temporary so keep IRs at 1% and not reverse QE. The problem is a possible bond collaspe, high lending rates or a bigger sterling crisis. If they can get away with it, it's probably the best option. As unfair as it seems, sharing the pain out between the savers and those in debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 (edited) No it isn't, RB.You called it right with the dollar last year, well done, but I'm certain you're wrong here. The high oil and gas prices of 2008 will drop out of the year-on-year inflation figures in the next 2-3 months, by October 2009 oil will be higher in price than it was in Oct 2008, and all these inflation figures will start rising from where they are now. ALL of them. Oil could be $20 by 'Xmas. What's clear is that there is something in the way CPI is calculated which more or less prevents it ever moving outside of a 1.5 - 5% band. Oil moved up to $147, down to $35, back up to $70 - sterling dropped from $2.1 to 1.36 to 1.65 and CPI cannot move outside of that band. It's useless as a tool/guide to anything. Especially monetary policy! Edit: Most economists were predicting 1.5% CPI Well, they're in the same camp as 'most' bank analysts. Couldn't find their ar5e with both hands. They're either a total waste of time and space or paid to be wrong. Edited August 18, 2009 by For no one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 CPI (MOM): 0%CPI (YOY): 1.8% RPI (MOM): 0% RPI (YOY): -1.4% RPIX: 1.2% All over expectations Same as last time - Do you have the inflation figures as well as these price indexes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 FFS how much longer will this farce go on. There will be no deflation, we are heading for major league inflation, a run on the £ is inevitable only making inflation worse. GB and the BoE have lost all credibility how long til the markets wake up??????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 FFS how much longer will this farce go on.There will be no deflation, we are heading for major league inflation, a run on the £ is inevitable only making inflation worse. GB and the BoE have lost all credibility how long til the markets wake up??????????? The money supply isn't getting to consumers via wage rises. It is sitting in reserves ready to cover further losses. I'll get concerned about inflation when I see wages rising. VMR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 The money supply isn't getting to consumers via wage rises. It is sitting in reserves ready to cover further losses.I'll get concerned about inflation when I see wages rising. VMR. Mental. "I'll worry about not being able to buy anything when my belly is empty and I'm homeless." You can't afford a ferrari, why do you think you'll always be able to afford bread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 FFS how much longer will this farce go on.There will be no deflation, we are heading for major league inflation, a run on the £ is inevitable only making inflation worse. GB and the BoE have lost all credibility how long til the markets wake up??????????? yep..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Mental."I'll worry about not being able to buy anything when my belly is empty and I'm homeless." You can't afford a ferrari, why do you think you'll always be able to afford bread? If I can't afford a Ferrari, I'll drive something else. If I can't afford bread, the Government will be replaced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 If I can't afford a Ferrari, I'll drive something else. You'll walk. If I can't afford bread, the Government will be replaced. The government provides you with bread? Where do you live, 50's Russia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 (edited) ultimately the £ and $ will be devalued to such an extent that the cost of oil and other commodities will be huge, pushing inflation in these regions to unimaginable levels. don't think we will bounce back to how it was 3 years ago, we have been so badly mismanaged by Labour it could take decades for us and the States to pull out of this mess. Edited August 18, 2009 by I Told You So Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BalancedBear Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Oil could be $20 by 'Xmas. But highly unlikely given world demand, and some economies appearing to emerge from recession. If it does China will be filling its boots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 CPI (MOM): 0% - over expectations, you sure? Yes, expectation was -0.3% according to BBG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Same as last time - Do you have the inflation figures as well as these price indexes? This is the most interesting comment I have read all second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 I cant see how it is relevant, it is dragged lower by reduced mortgage repayments and therefore is not a representation as to what is happening to prices? I wonder how thay calculate the mortgage rate? we have new borrowers on 5%+ and a few thousand old borrowers on base rate +-, many on fixed around 4-5%. I bet they take the lowest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattyboy1973 Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 RPI (YOY): -1.4%Thats the one that counts. no it isn't - that's just 0.5% interest rates, its not even particularly representative of housing costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 This is the most interesting comment I have read all second. I can hardly contain my indifference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgs Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Very acceptable inflation figures. Halfway between the deflation junkies and hyperflation junkies. A perfect Goldilocks scenario. You all worry too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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