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Bdev - Down 7% Today...

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Following Bubb's theory that BDEV (or other house builders) share price leads the way on future sentiment on housing, are we now looking at moving out of the dead cat / bull trap phase of the housing crash, and onto full scale panic?

I still think September / October before we see further falls in the housing market, but we're off down again now do we think?

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Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.

Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago.

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Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.

Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago.

It's one day though. Lets see if some sort of trend begins.

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Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.

Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago.

He first posted the thesis years ago.

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I think it's justy profit taking and the effect of a general down day on the FTSE. Many property shareholders are extremely bullish at the moment, you just need to read share message boards to see what I mean.

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Over 10 million in a day, with a big drop - slide below 200p this week, could do it.

We seem to be getting a GLOBAL change in sentiment today.

I reckon people may be realising we are WAY AHEAD of the real state of the economy.

And a load of bad news still lies ahead, after the fools rally of the last few weeks

Do you see Taylor Wimpey going the same way? In fact, is it fair to lump the likes of RBS in with these stocks as essentially they were all in a death spiral and managed to recover right at the last minute?

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If this is signalling the End of The Dead cat bounce,

then ALL the builders will sell off. BDEV on its own selling off would not be meaningful.

I think what I had in mind was the weakest ones falling effectively to zero (ie much more than the general fall in the sector). I have marked BDEV and Taylor Wimpey as the two in the sector to go under. Persimmon, Redrow etc should survive albeit there shares will fall to some extent as well.

Similarly with the banks, I see RBS as a fall to zero stock whereas the other major banks should survive.

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLH40487920090817

Shares in Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) are down 5.9 percent, the third biggest FTSE 250 .FTMC loser, after a report in the Mail on Sunday says the British housebuilder will seek to raise 500 million pounds through a rights issue when it reports its full year results in September.

"We believe that a capital raise is likely," say analysts at Panmure Gordon on Monday. "We continue to believe that Barratt will need to undertake a dilutive fundraising in order to secure its debt position and give it a foothold to start growing again," they add.

Shares in other UK housebuilders are also down including Taylor Wimpey (TW.L), off 3.5 percent, and Bovis Homes (BVS.L), down 4.3 percent.

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<snip>

Shares in Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) are down 5.9 percent, the third biggest FTSE 250 .FTMC loser, after a report in the Mail on Sunday says the British housebuilder will seek to raise 500 million pounds through a rights issue when it reports its full year results in September.

<snip>

Will they be in time?

*points at sig*

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Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.

Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago.

think/check before you open your mouth

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no problem

No one knows for certain what will happen - though I have some views.

Ultimately, we will all watch and learn from this experience

Seems pretty interesting and conclusive to me.

We are on for a lively September in my view. Who's going under on September 14th THIS year?!

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Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.

Indeed I havent seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago.

Dr Bubb TODAY

OK hadn't read the rest of the thread when I posted and Dr Bubb had replied in the thread

Edited by Sybil13

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I think what I had in mind was the weakest ones falling effectively to zero (ie much more than the general fall in the sector). I have marked BDEV and Taylor Wimpey as the two in the sector to go under. Persimmon, Redrow etc should survive albeit there shares will fall to some extent as well.

Similarly with the banks, I see RBS as a fall to zero stock whereas the other major banks should survive.

None of the banks will fall to zero because the government has ruled out nationalisation and instead prefers to bail out the banks and let the bankers continue to have massive humungous bonusus. This is the only reason RBS is not at zero.

Considering share dilution the share price is pretty much near it's peak.

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Over 10 million in a day, with a big drop - slide below 200p this week, could do it.

We seem to be getting a GLOBAL change in sentiment today.

I reckon people may be realising we are WAY AHEAD of the real state of the economy.

And a load of bad news still lies ahead, after the fools rally of the last few weeks

Down 2.83% 220p now

price change %

220.00 6.40 2.83

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Wasn't it like 50p or something stupid about 6 months ago - so 50p to 2 quid is a pretty nice profit is it not?

I think it bottomed at 45p.

Nice profit if you sell now. If it collapses again, might be no profit or a loss. Or the miracle recovery with no grounding might continue and it might be £12 a share by next year.

Take your pick.

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