Not Long Now Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Following Bubb's theory that BDEV (or other house builders) share price leads the way on future sentiment on housing, are we now looking at moving out of the dead cat / bull trap phase of the housing crash, and onto full scale panic? I still think September / October before we see further falls in the housing market, but we're off down again now do we think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 It would be nice to see. Indeed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc_li Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant. Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago. It's one day though. Lets see if some sort of trend begins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bear_or_bull Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 It's one day though. Lets see if some sort of trend begins. And on what volume the fall is driven by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago. He first posted the thesis years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blankster Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 I think it's justy profit taking and the effect of a general down day on the FTSE. Many property shareholders are extremely bullish at the moment, you just need to read share message boards to see what I mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Hi DrBubb, What sort of volume would turn that yellow light to red? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Over 10 million in a day, with a big drop - slide below 200p this week, could do it.We seem to be getting a GLOBAL change in sentiment today. I reckon people may be realising we are WAY AHEAD of the real state of the economy. And a load of bad news still lies ahead, after the fools rally of the last few weeks Do you see Taylor Wimpey going the same way? In fact, is it fair to lump the likes of RBS in with these stocks as essentially they were all in a death spiral and managed to recover right at the last minute? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 If this is signalling the End of The Dead cat bounce,then ALL the builders will sell off. BDEV on its own selling off would not be meaningful. I think what I had in mind was the weakest ones falling effectively to zero (ie much more than the general fall in the sector). I have marked BDEV and Taylor Wimpey as the two in the sector to go under. Persimmon, Redrow etc should survive albeit there shares will fall to some extent as well. Similarly with the banks, I see RBS as a fall to zero stock whereas the other major banks should survive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 I wonder if there is something up with the Homebuy Direct scheme? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
modemfish Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLH40487920090817 Shares in Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) are down 5.9 percent, the third biggest FTSE 250 .FTMC loser, after a report in the Mail on Sunday says the British housebuilder will seek to raise 500 million pounds through a rights issue when it reports its full year results in September. "We believe that a capital raise is likely," say analysts at Panmure Gordon on Monday. "We continue to believe that Barratt will need to undertake a dilutive fundraising in order to secure its debt position and give it a foothold to start growing again," they add. Shares in other UK housebuilders are also down including Taylor Wimpey (TW.L), off 3.5 percent, and Bovis Homes (BVS.L), down 4.3 percent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 <snip>Shares in Barratt Developments (BDEV.L) are down 5.9 percent, the third biggest FTSE 250 .FTMC loser, after a report in the Mail on Sunday says the British housebuilder will seek to raise 500 million pounds through a rights issue when it reports its full year results in September. <snip> Will they be in time? *points at sig* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjm81 Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.Indeed I haven´t seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago. think/check before you open your mouth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted August 17, 2009 Author Share Posted August 17, 2009 no problemNo one knows for certain what will happen - though I have some views. Ultimately, we will all watch and learn from this experience Seems pretty interesting and conclusive to me. We are on for a lively September in my view. Who's going under on September 14th THIS year?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 (edited) Given that BDEV are 50% up on the last month alone a fall of 7% in one day is hardly significant.Indeed I havent seen DrBubb revisit his hypothesis since he first posted it a month ago. Dr Bubb TODAY OK hadn't read the rest of the thread when I posted and Dr Bubb had replied in the thread Edited August 17, 2009 by Sybil13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 but the share price was 140 p a few weeks ago so it's up 50% over a few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 I think what I had in mind was the weakest ones falling effectively to zero (ie much more than the general fall in the sector). I have marked BDEV and Taylor Wimpey as the two in the sector to go under. Persimmon, Redrow etc should survive albeit there shares will fall to some extent as well.Similarly with the banks, I see RBS as a fall to zero stock whereas the other major banks should survive. None of the banks will fall to zero because the government has ruled out nationalisation and instead prefers to bail out the banks and let the bankers continue to have massive humungous bonusus. This is the only reason RBS is not at zero. Considering share dilution the share price is pretty much near it's peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpc_uk08 Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Over 10 million in a day, with a big drop - slide below 200p this week, could do it.We seem to be getting a GLOBAL change in sentiment today. I reckon people may be realising we are WAY AHEAD of the real state of the economy. And a load of bad news still lies ahead, after the fools rally of the last few weeks Down 2.83% 220p now price change % 220.00 6.40 2.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 18 Aug 16:35 GMT 218.40 -8.00‎ (-3.53%‎) Open: 227.90 High: 228.70 Low: 215.10 Volume: 2,179,304 Avg Vol: 0 Mkt Cap: 757.23M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slumpmonkey Returns Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Two days of falls on the trot - the trend is good. Hopefully this sucker will break below 200 tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.C. Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 bump for the late crowd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Wasn't it like 50p or something stupid about 6 months ago - so 50p to 2 quid is a pretty nice profit is it not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.C. Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Wasn't it like 50p or something stupid about 6 months ago - so 50p to 2 quid is a pretty nice profit is it not? I think it bottomed at 45p. Nice profit if you sell now. If it collapses again, might be no profit or a loss. Or the miracle recovery with no grounding might continue and it might be £12 a share by next year. Take your pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.