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Sybil13

Long Term Hpc Bears Your Thoughts And Vision Needed

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Haven't really got time to start a NEW TOPIC very little PC access these days but thought this might be worth a new thread .

I posted on this thread in reply to Masked Tulip

HPC Link

Hi I noticed you joined in 2004 so you must have seen it all, yet, there is doubt.....

I have been thinking about this for a few days now, thought about starting a thread ....then there was a thread by Last Bear or someone today , again full of doubts about whether UK property prices will finally fall......and I started to wonder how long term House Price Crashers are feeling when the years up to the prices crashing must have been very difficult years with property prices going up and up and up ?

I know there is the odd poll to see how people are feeling, but surely NOTHING has changed has it, what YOU believed would cause property prices to fall, all those factors are still with us are they not, if not MORE so ?

Isn't that the point of a "dead cat bounce" ? Isn't that the point of what Merryn herself said about bull traps?

I would be interested to hear what long term bears on HPC do feel about the current dead cat bounce and how much you feel that certain factors have changed your outlook.

As I said on the other thread, and on this one today

HPC It Wont Crash Until I Buy a Property

I honestly cannot see that ANYTHING has changed, this is a classic dead cat is it not.....?

I can see people will not want their property to be given a realistic value , and its hard to see what effect that could have ....

What I don't get is how can all these people be in negative equity when according to Rightmove and others property is now 2007 value + ?

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Nothing's changed. The only way we will see a sustained nominal HPI (or even a levelling) in prices is through sizeable currency debasement.

I am keeping my ear firmly to the ground on this one.

Bulls seem happy to see the stored wealth of the country destroyed, just so long as they end up being at least nominally right about HPI. Problem is, as net debtors both private and public, this may end up being the route taken. Be ready to adopt and feed a starving OAP.

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What I don't get is how can all these people be in negative equity when according to Rightmove and others property is now 2007 value + ?

Negative equity - yes, aplenty.

Banks repossessing - no. They are bidding on own repos (buying via shell companies) to distort the market stats (sold prices is LR database/Haliwide index) and letting people to live there mortgage-free. That's why we don't see any meaningful change in homeless stats.

On top of that, govt is paying SMI to jobless mortgagors for 2 years, keeping them 2-inches away from being accidentally repo-ed by some BS not playing ball.

Number of properties on the market - multi-year low. So nothing to choose from, artificially created shortage.

Way out - no easy one, I am afraid. This is set to continue until bond market dislocation or GE in May 2010 whichever happens first.

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This is a classic bull trap.

Its very difficult to go against the crowd but talk of any recovery is very premature.

The various vested interest all have their reasons for talking things up not least the bankers because they want to get back to business as usual and avoid being regulated.

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I can now see this potentially dragging out for years. We know people are taking on debt they cannot afford to pay long term, but everything is being done to support them in the meantime. The only thing we haven't seen that would get them out of trouble is rampant wage inflation. At the moment we have rampant job deflation.

Its all very well saying stretch yourself, but when you are stretching yourself every month for years and your standard of living is falling, then it wears you down after a while. Lots of people can't afford to sell, hence the low number of houses on the market. Lots of people can't afford to buy either as they just haven't got the equity any more. There are still a lot of people out there who may not be negative, but who's equity is gone i.e. zero deposit if they move. This is just soooooo early 90s.

Best left alone for the time being.

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The fundamentals all still point to a massive correction ahead. However, with all the gubberment interventions (which, remember, can only put off the evil day and for which someone will have to pay eventually), meeja spin and puffery, and general public ignorance and self-delusion, this could (will?) drag on for years and years. If it does it will be in the form of stagnation, as in the Japanese lost decade.

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Decent nominal falls ahead. The government can only keep this thing propped up for so long.

They kept interest rates down too long then the crunch happened and they put them down even lower. When they have to rise, it'll be carnage.

I find it interesting that the government who were spending more than they were taking in during the boom, will be able to prop up all those who now can't afford their mortgage. Especially with tax receipts down, and unemployment skyrocketing.

Repos will start picking up soon, and the slide will start to continue.

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Blimey its been a while since I posted! This seemed an appropriate thread. My views have certainly changed over the years but only in that I have learnt more about what is going on. In 07 and 08 when things went pop I was surprised at just the lengths the government went to to keep things going. In fact I was shocked. But they bailed everyone out and pumped a lot in and bingo....problem solved.....i think not! This is just a temporary bull trap, but yes I was surprised they (the government) could achieve such a thing. Another thing I learnt is how little restraint people have when it comes to debt, particularly to buy houses.....basically if the banks are offering it the people will take it, even if the risks to themsleves are huge. So assuming there is always a demand for credit, all the gov have to do is get the banks to lend it. They've done okay so far but only because they (and thus we the tax payer) have agreed to underwrite it all and buy all the old cr@p still on the books! The banks also know its a PR game so have to be seen to be doing their bit. But with bankruptcy being made so easy there is huge sums of cash the banks will never see. This I feel has now caused a huge imbalance in how, why, and when cash is loaned to consumers, the banks are trying desperately to bring the loan criteria in line with the real risk.....although this is impossible because the banks know with a recession likely to get worse, easy bankruptcy (debt write off) and house prices certainly not rising, the best commercial decision to make is to batton down the hatches and not lend... gordon brown says NO.....U MUST LEND! All we can do now is await the inevitable end game.....governments cannot prop up banks (and consumers forever), but low interest rates are keeping a lot of BTL in business and giving a windfall to many heavily indebted home owners (with lower monthly payments). I guess the question is when interest rates will rise.....but then can the gov keep them low as long as the economy is slugglish...can it be that easy to control? This is one i'm still thinking about......what will cause IR's to rise?

I think this summer the VI's have done a great job of spinning even the smallest glimmer of good news, but during winter reality will set in. unemployment will rise, QE will reach its limit and end, and the declines in property will continue, mainly caused by new build firms (barrat, persimmon etc) realising that starting new builds of moth balled sites was a big mistake....government intervention will no longer be as readily available and there cash flows will be hit by early next year, with the knock on effect to the rest of the housing market / economy. Another thing i'm keeping an eye on is supermarkets...so far immune to the recession (with the ability to quickly change stock to cheaper goods) but there resilliance also proves people still have considerable confidence to spend....once the supermarkets are in decline this will be a huge indicator of economic downturn.

Although after these last few years I am still trying to understand it all!!

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I'm a long term bear and am in a real quandary at the moment with regard to the future of this crash.

I'm slowly coming round to the idea that there won't be much more of a nominal crash than what we've had already. I think this for a number of reasons but mainly because of the fact that it's clear that the government would much rather debase the currency than debase the housing market. The sheer quantity of debt out there means that any sniff of real deflation (rather than the pretend kind we've had so far) will cause such damage to the balance sheets of banks that the risk of systemic collapse would rear its head again, and this is in nobody's interests. I think it's most likely that the governments of the world will, in unison so as to avoid a breakdown in international trade, continue to devalue currencies and print in order to stimulate inflation, which will underpin asset values nominally.

I could be completely wrong and we may go into a Japan style slump, but in the west at least I think that the mania for spending over saving, reinforced by government printing, will prevent this from happening. Indeed, we may have a 'crack up boom' over the next few years, followed by systemic collapse - I think they really are desperate enough to try to trigger this.

With regard to house prices, in the UK I reckon we're about 10-15% maximum away from the bottom, if we carry on in recession for another year or so, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a reinflation of the bubble if QE and ZIRP related growth does start again in the final quarter.

The hassle is that it really does put us long term strs/ bears on a sticky wicket. I'm not so sure of the inflationary hypothesis that I'd take out a 5x mortgage (which I'd do if I had strength of conviction), but at the same time, I'm also not sure enough of a future of mass forced sales of desirable houses in nice areas to carry on renting for another 2-3 years in the hope that I'l be able to pick up a distressed bargain. Psychologically I'm in much less certain place than I was a year or even 6 months ago, and this is part of the bull trap danger I'm sure, but also I'm now weighing up a purchase at 3x salary + STR fund in order to feel settled and secure against the possibility of further falls and a smaller mortgage in a year's time.

The lack of supply is really spooking me in my area and while I don't think it'll cause another boom (although as I say above, I'm not sure of this), there is a real risk that I'll end up a year down the road faced with lower nominal house prices and absolutely nothing to buy! The stakes are high, and the losses potentially massive on either side. Not a nice place to be at the moment.

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Oh gawd, I don't want to get into another argument with you bubb.

However, I don't think I fall into your category of a 'fool or a worse sort of liar' with regard to my thinking of buying now.

For me, it's nothing to do with 'making' money on an asset. I have no interest in 'making' any more money out of houses. It's more about how sick I would feel if a property I bought plummeted in value soon after I bought it, but this is about debt repayment, not profit (ie I could've had a smaller mortgage) I have a young family and their security is more important than money (although obviously I'd see taking on extreme debt as a threat to their security, but I'm not planning on doing that whatever the circumstances).

Where I am, you don't get a glut of property even in a boom - it's a very settled area, and I'm thinking about buying because I can get a nice place for around 20% under peak. Lack of supply is making me want to buy, not the potential for rising prices, even though one might cause the other. If there's only another 10% left to go, which I think there may well be, then that's not enough to change my behaviour when balanced against the emotional and practical issues around renting.

If I'm wrong and another 20% comes off solid family homes in this very good area, and supply here explodes so I'm spolit for choice, then I'll tell you, by all means slap my wrist in a few years. :P

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I'm working on the basis that if things bounce back, that housing won't bounce back as much as other things like stocks and commodities. So I'll bet my capital there before I buy.

IMO most housing will not be going anywhere fast, poorly built flats and certain bulk built packed together houses in higher unemployment areas will fall further...certain properties in short supply that have a USP in more desirable areas will increase.

Yes, housing in the foreseeable future will not be a place to invest money, there are other better places for that...they will be for buying and paying for as quickly as possible....cash and equity is king. ;)

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The key is the amount of credit. During the boom nett lending to UK citizens was approx £9billion per month. Last June it was £0.4billion and on a downward trend. The housing bubble was a symptom of the credit bubble, they will continue to deflate together.

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The key is the amount of credit. During the boom nett lending to UK citizens

I assume you mean UK borrowers.

Amount of credit by itself is meaningless, you also have to consider amount of collateral available to lend against. There is less good collateral to lend against these days so only very good houses or significantly BMV actually sell. The shortage of collateral is artificial and will last until SMI is abolished/becomes hard to get.

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I assume you mean UK borrowers.

Amount of credit by itself is meaningless, you also have to consider amount of collateral available to lend against. There is less good collateral to lend against these days so only very good houses or significantly BMV actually sell. The shortage of collateral is artificial and will last until SMI is abolished/becomes hard to get.

Two sides of the same coin. The equity availabe as collateral has declined as the credit which inflated the market has shrunk.

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I'm a long term bear and am in a real quandary at the moment with regard to the future of this crash.

I'm slowly coming round to the idea that there won't be much more of a nominal crash than what we've had already. I think this for a number of reasons but mainly because of the fact that it's clear that the government would much rather debase the currency than debase the housing market. The sheer quantity of debt out there means that any sniff of real deflation (rather than the pretend kind we've had so far) will cause such damage to the balance sheets of banks that the risk of systemic collapse would rear its head again, and this is in nobody's interests. I think it's most likely that the governments of the world will, in unison so as to avoid a breakdown in international trade, continue to devalue currencies and print in order to stimulate inflation, which will underpin asset values nominally.

I could be completely wrong and we may go into a Japan style slump, but in the west at least I think that the mania for spending over saving, reinforced by government printing, will prevent this from happening. Indeed, we may have a 'crack up boom' over the next few years, followed by systemic collapse - I think they really are desperate enough to try to trigger this.

With regard to house prices, in the UK I reckon we're about 10-15% maximum away from the bottom, if we carry on in recession for another year or so, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a reinflation of the bubble if QE and ZIRP related growth does start again in the final quarter.

The hassle is that it really does put us long term strs/ bears on a sticky wicket. I'm not so sure of the inflationary hypothesis that I'd take out a 5x mortgage (which I'd do if I had strength of conviction), but at the same time, I'm also not sure enough of a future of mass forced sales of desirable houses in nice areas to carry on renting for another 2-3 years in the hope that I'l be able to pick up a distressed bargain. Psychologically I'm in much less certain place than I was a year or even 6 months ago, and this is part of the bull trap danger I'm sure, but also I'm now weighing up a purchase at 3x salary + STR fund in order to feel settled and secure against the possibility of further falls and a smaller mortgage in a year's time.

The lack of supply is really spooking me in my area and while I don't think it'll cause another boom (although as I say above, I'm not sure of this), there is a real risk that I'll end up a year down the road faced with lower nominal house prices and absolutely nothing to buy! The stakes are high, and the losses potentially massive on either side. Not a nice place to be at the moment.

a

The UK government must sell it`s debt in the bond markets to back up it`s stimulus ambitions? this can never compare to the loose credit available when there was a global securitization market for re-packaged loans? the way I see it it`s like announcing a tour by The Jimi Hendrix Experience, but with winners from the X Factor making up the band, it just won`t be the same. When interest rates go up, and banks start repo`s so they can lend again to a new generation, there will be all the supply you want IMO.

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Much to my amazement the government and BOE have proved themselves only too ready to debase our currency via zero interest rates and the printing of money in a desperate attempt to prop up the property market and by extension the banks and UK economy. They seem to have achieved their aim for now at least but I suspect they have merely succeeded in putting the day of reckoning off for a year or two at most. When the Tories take over next year I expect them to impose strict fiscal discipline, stop debasing the currency and start repaying debt. At this point life is going to get very uncomfortable for the over indebted who have been thrown a lifeline by Brown. HPC to resume next autumn.

I say this as a property owner ( I bought in April - more a building site than a house ). I still want property prices to fall - I want my own children to be able to buy a property one day at a sensible price not at the insane inflated values we still have. I want speculators / bankers and all the scum who have profited out of ramping the housing market and ruining the UK economy to be wiped out.

As a good illustration of how over inflated the UK market still is there is an ad in todays Times property supplement for a property in France in a nice region asking £500k, the same as my neighbours house ( 4 beds - no garden to speak of ). The French propery is a Chateau, set in 15 acres with its own chapel , stables and a seperate cottage. The chateau needs a bit of work but seems to have a floor space in excess of 6000 sq ft.

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Two sides of the same coin. The equity availabe as collateral has declined as the credit which inflated the market has shrunk.

Or the credit available has shrunk as the collateral has

The underlying driver is production and that has been wrecked

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Another thing i'm keeping an eye on is supermarkets...so far immune to the recession (with the ability to quickly change stock to cheaper goods) but there resilliance also proves people still have considerable confidence to spend....once the supermarkets are in decline this will be a huge indicator of economic downturn. Although after these last few years I am still trying to understand it all!!

Not exactly a "supermarket" but close: Was in M&S today, and asked if I could order an item of clothing (they didn't have my size). Was told by assistant "we no longer have an order in store facility. Because of the recession we have had to cut back on staffing levels, and the order desk is therefore no longer operating. You will have to order by phone or online".

Now if M&S are doing this - they pride themselves on their "customer service" - then things MUST be bad. - Perhaps they should change their strapline from "more than" to "less than"...

Edited by DownsizingDiva

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Thanks to everyone so far who have posted on this thread especially BIG thanks to those bears who have been here for years but with very few posts its good to hear the way people's thinking is going.....

I have not got a lot of time for thinking or posting at the mo' but thoughts have been going round and round my head all day today....

Its just really hard to try to piece all the bits of information together but I just can't see how we went from where we were in March 2009 to where we are today.....

At the start of the year the main indices as you all know didn't publish its predictions for 2009 , however, most believed another 10% fall , something like 30% falls from peak.

CEBR predicted (but then changed their minds), that even if approvals doubled property would fall 35% , if approvals remained low, they believed property would fall 40% +

Moodys said that last year 25% falls were predicted but that had changed dramatically and the assumption now was 40% falls and stress tested for 60%, the FSA stress tested for 50%.

After the budget both the NAEA and the CML said there was nothing in the budget to help the housing market, and the CML said throughout April /May and June that the "green shoots had no roots." And the CML have continued to say that they cannot see mortgage lending exceeding £145 billion for the year 50% less than 2007.

All the main lenders and Fitch have said that rising prices would only lead to more sellers putting their property on the market leading to further falls.

Blanchflower, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, at the start of August said :

'How much further will house prices fall? The best guide is the ratio between average earnings and average house prices. This is a measure of affordability. Between 1983 and 2001, before house prices started to climb, the ratio averaged 3.62. By July 2007 the ratio had reached 5.84; it has subsequently fallen back to 4.33.

'To get back to the long-run average of 3.62 from 5.84 implies a drop of 38%. So far we are down 26%, so it looks like there is more to go. The possibility is that house price falls will be even greater than that if the ratio falls below its long-run trend before recovering, as it did in the early 1990s.

House prices probably have a good way to drop yet. Lots of people may tell you otherwise − estate agents, mortgage brokers and bankers − because they have something to gain. My advice is just to look at the data.'

Just about everything related to property seems to be at historic lows , from approvals to lending figures etc etc., and we all know that all the Under Offers and SSTC's are not going to complete . Last year and earlier this year properties I had been watching were selling, then I had 50+ properties I was watching from March this year just out of interest and NOTHING was selling for months, then all of sudden some started to go Under Offer and SSTC.....but then they come back on then they go SSTC again.....some get removed , 2 have sold out of 50!!

So yes a lot of confusion, not least I fail to understand that if valuations are coming in 25 - 30% below peak leading to chains breaking why are EA's still ramping the market leading to offers being put forward but sales failing to complete due to buyers being unable to get mortgages or mortgages for the offer price due to property still being hugely overvalued. If they know the lender will value the property realistically why do they look at people as if they have 2 heads that put in realistic offers of 25% below peak?

There seems to be a contradiction here....on the one hand we hear that lenders valuations are realistic leading to chains breaking...on the other we hear that property prices are going up and if we don't all rush out and buy TODAY we will miss the boat.....whilst even ramping articles seem to say that property is unlikely to actually go up at any time soon and is only looking like it is going up (whilst 70000 a month reduce on RM), due to very few properties being marketed, and even less property being marketed at realistic values.

Surely all the factors that will lead to house prices falling are still relevant are they not? Nothing has changed has it?

1. Funding - Even if they Wanted To[/url

CML said about the May 2009 figures

It looks almost inevitable that May approvals will be higher than a year ago for the first time since early 2007. However, activity remains at extremely low levels on any historic comparison – and weaker than at any point in the early 1990s. Limited lending capacity and the impact of further job losses are likely to act as a ceiling for how far the improvement can continue

UK Lenders Need to Reduce Lending by £500 billion

Britains Banks May be Too Weak to Support Recovery

2. Approvals In the last twenty years, house prices have regained positive momentum only when mortgage approvals have exceeded 75,000, according to Capital Economics

3. FTB's

4. Interest Rates:

Lovemoney "Why Property Prices Have to Fall " :

When I bought my first home in late 1992, in the depths of the last property crash, the Bank of England base rate was nearly 8% a year and my mortgage interest rate was broadly similar. However, over the next few years, the base rate declined fairly steadily, falling to a low of 3.50% in mid-2003. During this time, mortgage rates also fell, making monthly repayments much more affordable and thus encouraging homebuyers to take on ever-larger debts.

Over the next four years, the base rate climbed, peaking at 5.75% in late 2007, although mortgage rates remained competitive. However, the weakening economy forced the Bank of England to take a knife to the base rate, sending it plunging from 5% in October 2008 to a record low of 0.5% today.

Given that the base rate is now at its lowest level in the Bank's 315-year history, there's only one way it can go: up. This means that the huge boost to house prices provided by ultra-low rates is over, at least for the near future

5. Loan to Income see Blanchflower quote above

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......I think this summer the VI's have done a great job of spinning even the smallest glimmer of good news, but during winter reality will set in. unemployment will rise, QE will reach its limit and end, and the declines in property will continue, mainly caused by new build firms (barrat, persimmon etc) realising that starting new builds of moth balled sites was a big mistake....government intervention will no longer be as readily available and there cash flows will be hit by early next year, with the knock on effect to the rest of the housing market / economy. Another thing i'm keeping an eye on is supermarkets...so far immune to the recession (with the ability to quickly change stock to cheaper goods) but there resilliance also proves people still have considerable confidence to spend....once the supermarkets are in decline this will be a huge indicator of economic downturn.

Although after these last few years I am still trying to understand it all!!

Thanks for taking the time to respond to the call and making some really interesting points just thought I would link this.....

Store Sales Slip and Wal Mart's Profits are Flat

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Blimey its been a while since I posted! This seemed an appropriate thread. My views have certainly changed over the years but only in that I have learnt more about what is going on. In 07 and 08 when things went pop I was surprised at just the lengths the government went to to keep things going. In fact I was shocked. But they bailed everyone out and pumped a lot in and bingo....problem solved.....i think not! This is just a temporary bull trap, but yes I was surprised they (the government) could achieve such a thing. Another thing I learnt is how little restraint people have when it comes to debt, particularly to buy houses.....basically if the banks are offering it the people will take it, even if the risks to themsleves are huge. So assuming there is always a demand for credit, all the gov have to do is get the banks to lend it. They've done okay so far but only because they (and thus we the tax payer) have agreed to underwrite it all and buy all the old cr@p still on the books! The banks also know its a PR game so have to be seen to be doing their bit. But with bankruptcy being made so easy there is huge sums of cash the banks will never see. This I feel has now caused a huge imbalance in how, why, and when cash is loaned to consumers, the banks are trying desperately to bring the loan criteria in line with the real risk.....although this is impossible because the banks know with a recession likely to get worse, easy bankruptcy (debt write off) and house prices certainly not rising, the best commercial decision to make is to batton down the hatches and not lend... gordon brown says NO.....U MUST LEND! All we can do now is await the inevitable end game.....governments cannot prop up banks (and consumers forever), but low interest rates are keeping a lot of BTL in business and giving a windfall to many heavily indebted home owners (with lower monthly payments). I guess the question is when interest rates will rise.....but then can the gov keep them low as long as the economy is slugglish...can it be that easy to control? This is one i'm still thinking about......what will cause IR's to rise?

I think this summer the VI's have done a great job of spinning even the smallest glimmer of good news, but during winter reality will set in. unemployment will rise, QE will reach its limit and end, and the declines in property will continue, mainly caused by new build firms (barrat, persimmon etc) realising that starting new builds of moth balled sites was a big mistake....government intervention will no longer be as readily available and there cash flows will be hit by early next year, with the knock on effect to the rest of the housing market / economy. Another thing i'm keeping an eye on is supermarkets...so far immune to the recession (with the ability to quickly change stock to cheaper goods) but there resilliance also proves people still have considerable confidence to spend....once the supermarkets are in decline this will be a huge indicator of economic downturn.

Although after these last few years I am still trying to understand it all!!

+1

Joined 08/04

Member 11

Posts 40

say no more!

Good post

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As an older chap, I struggle to imagine what it must be like to be a first time buyer at the moment, but at the risk of repeating myself, if i was a FTB now I would only buy if it was relatively easily, with little worry, or concern for my future.

If I was confident I would not lose my job, that the UK was where I wanted to live my life, and that buying would give me lower bills than renting, while allowing me to sell easily and at a profit if I needed to. (Divorce, moving job, emigrating etc).

There is the problem. FTBs are being told by parents to put money in bricks and mortar, just like they did. But things have changed.

I bought in 1972 for 10k, sold in 1974 for 17.5k, bought for 20k, sold in 1976 for 25k, bought for 32k, sold 1989 for 100k, bought for 130k and sold in 1996 for 160k, bought for 170k,sold in 2005 for 300k. Biggest mortgage was 50k, biggest multiple was 3 times ONE salary paid off over 10 years. This was absolutely normal Everyone did it , in their sleep.

Now my kids buy a box for 130 k despite my best efforts to dissuade them.... Jeez, there is no sense.

If they hope to have the same long term results as me, they have started badly, with a multiple of 3 times TWO salaries, no spare cash and 30k neg equity.

I think I would feel it best to wait until steady , slightly over inflation HPI returned, otherwise, what sense is there in buying an anchor with a huge debt?

You only buy the house when you make the final payment. This all sounds so negative. I guess I am getting old.

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