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Radio 5live Today - 10-12

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Studio Expert seems to be quite switched on...

Current situation is a blip long term outlook is values to fall!!

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The lovely and well-informed Merryn Somerset Webb sticking the bear angle to them...

Predicting 20% further falls over next two years, after this brief upward blip ends.

The other contributor confesses he knows nothing about anything. Why's he there?

Edited by juvenal

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MSW's editorial in Moneyweek this week is her basically saying why she is still bearish but, just listening to her now on the Radio, I got the impression that there is an element of doubt in her words.

She just, IMPO, no longer sounded convinced that a crash would occur. Nothing wrong in that as we all have doubts and I, for one, are full of them.

I admit to being staggered by the lack of a sharp collapse in prices here in the UK compared to the likes of the US, Eire, Spain, etc, where the drops have been dramatic. Let's face, if we had had those price drops here in the UK then I expect that many of us would have bought a home by now.

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MSW's editorial in Moneyweek this week is her basically saying why she is still bearish but, just listening to her now on the Radio, I got the impression that there is an element of doubt in her words.

She just, IMPO, no longer sounded convinced that a crash would occur. Nothing wrong in that as we all have doubts and I, for one, are full of them.

I admit to being staggered by the lack of a sharp collapse in prices here in the UK compared to the likes of the US, Eire, Spain, etc, where the drops have been dramatic. Let's face, if we had had those price drops here in the UK then I expect that many of us would have bought a home by now.

Hi I noticed you joined in 2004 so you must have seen it all, yet, there is doubt.....

I have been thinking about this for a few days now, thought about starting a thread ....then there was a thread by Last Bear or someone today , again full of doubts about whether UK property prices will finally fall......and I started to wonder how long term House Price Crashers are feeling when the years up to the prices crashing must have been very difficult years with property prices going up and up and up ?

I know there is the odd poll to see how people are feeling, but surely NOTHING has changed has it, what YOU believed would cause property prices to fall, all those factors are still with us are they not, if not MORE so ?

Isn't that the point of a "dead cat bounce" ? Isn't that the point of what Merryn herself said about bull traps?

Stay Away From Property It Has Much Further to Fall

The truth is that all real bear markets tend to offer the unwary investor one last opportunity to lose money. The summer of 2009 is probably that opportunity this time round.

There may well be a quite a big pick up in inquiries, transactions and even prices over the next few months. This will be partly down to the fact that, for those who have cash and want to buy at some point, the housing bear market is getting boring – and partly because a lot of property looks cheap relative to its peak price.

But the basic market conditions are still all wrong for recovery

So when people believed property prices WOULD fall 40% + did they factor in the fact that 1/3rd of mortgage holders would not be able to afford to move and potentially 2/3rds will wait until property prices go back up to 2007 values NEXT YEAR, because the papers keep telling them they will?

Is this a case of energy following thought......?

Can we ramp our way back to 2007 when UK plc went broke due to hugely inflated property prices?

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Hi I noticed you joined in 2004 so you must have seen it all, yet, there is doubt.....

I have been thinking about this for a few days now, thought about starting a thread ....then there was a thread by Last Bear or someone today , again full of doubts about whether UK property prices will finally fall......and I started to wonder how long term House Price Crashers are feeling when the years up to the prices crashing must have been very difficult years with property prices going up and up and up ?

I know there is the odd poll to see how people are feeling, but surely NOTHING has changed has it, what YOU believed would cause property prices to fall, all those factors are still with us are they not, if not MORE so ?

Isn't that the point of a "dead cat bounce" ? Isn't that the point of what Merryn herself said about bull traps?

Stay Away From Property It Has Much Further to Fall

So when people believed property prices WOULD fall 40% + did they factor in the fact that 1/3rd of mortgage holders would not be able to afford to move and potentially 2/3rds will wait until property prices go back up to 2007 values NEXT YEAR, because the papers keep telling them they will?

Is this a case of energy following thought......?

Can we ramp our way back to 2007 when UK plc went broke due to hugely inflated property prices?

Yes, this is what dead-cat bounces do... but why is the UK having this dead-cat bounce in house prices. The US is not, Eire is not, Spain is not but the UK is?

Obviously, a mixture of denial, Govt intervention and plain old British Class snobbery associated with house prices is a bug factor here. Where I live, in Wales, 69% of GDP is dependent upon Public Sector jobs and the jobs cuts in the Public Sector are not happening - in fact, about 35K extra Public Sector jobs were created in Wales in the past 12 months. Nuts! Completely nuts!

So, how long will it be before Wales crashes? Hmm, not seemingly until the Tories get into power and probably not for a good 12 months after the begin slashing Public Sector spend... so do the maths and you are looking at least 24 months from now if not more! The same is probably true for the NE and for Scotland?

By which time the economy in London will probably be on the mend all, again in my part of the World, Londoners will be buying up second homes for vast sums. In fact, they are still doing so.

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MSW's editorial in Moneyweek this week is her basically saying why she is still bearish but, just listening to her now on the Radio, I got the impression that there is an element of doubt in her words.

She just, IMPO, no longer sounded convinced that a crash would occur. Nothing wrong in that as we all have doubts and I, for one, are full of them.

I admit to being staggered by the lack of a sharp collapse in prices here in the UK compared to the likes of the US, Eire, Spain, etc, where the drops have been dramatic. Let's face, if we had had those price drops here in the UK then I expect that many of us would have bought a home by now.

Remember MT - Most of what you hear/read - and the "official" figures are completely RIGGED.

Also - very small volumes & turnover -- So no real way of knowing how the ordinary Tom, Dick & Harry end of the market is REALLY performing.

ALSO -- SO MANY properties have been sitting on the "market" for MONTHS - and YEARS!!!

SO - reality yet to hit the UK MT......

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Yes, this is what dead-cat bounces do... but why is the UK having this dead-cat bounce in house prices. The US is not, Eire is not, Spain is not but the UK is?

Obviously, a mixture of denial, Govt intervention and plain old British Class snobbery associated with house prices is a bug factor here. Where I live, in Wales, 69% of GDP is dependent upon Public Sector jobs and the jobs cuts in the Public Sector are not happening - in fact, about 35K extra Public Sector jobs were created in Wales in the past 12 months. Nuts! Completely nuts!

So, how long will it be before Wales crashes? Hmm, not seemingly until the Tories get into power and probably not for a good 12 months after the begin slashing Public Sector spend... so do the maths and you are looking at least 24 months from now if not more! The same is probably true for the NE and for Scotland?

By which time the economy in London will probably be on the mend all, again in my part of the World, Londoners will be buying up second homes for vast sums. In fact, they are still doing so.

I can hear what you are saying and I am hoping that other members will shed some light on why this is happening, perhaps I should have started a new thread on this ?

You say, "why is the UK having a dead-cat bounce?" Is it that there is just such a HUGE vested interest?

The BOE official that warned Darling "Not To Stop the Housing Crash" said:

" ....it would be ‘dangerous’ for policymakers to try to stem the relentless slump in the value of property. ....

....We have to be very careful with policy intervention that we don’t actually make it worse.’

Property prices are still 40 per cent above their historic averages, suggesting further declines are unavoidable, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said earlier this month.

Analyst Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics said: ‘The housing market correction has to happen and we may as well get it over with sooner rather than later.

‘It is obviously in the government’s interests to try to delay any adjustment in house prices and get them to fall at a slower pace for political reasons.’

Treasury Committee chairman John McFall said: ‘Policy interventions have to accept there has to be a floor in the market. There can be no artificial stimulus.’.....

I am just thinking once again about Dr Bubb's images and the whole "rug pull" "swing theory" ......

Dr Bubb Images

I know that the UK had a BIGGER property bubble than any other country much much bigger than the US, and I know that the IMF has confirmed that the bank crisis will cost the UK more than any other nation:

IMF's damning verdict

The IMF have also said recently that the UK cannot afford another fiscal rescue.

I also keep thinking back to last year when every paper was running with how much house prices were falling but property was still selling right up to the start of this year.....property didn't hang around.....but property IS hanging around now...and yes a lot is hanging around with SSTC or Under Offer on it......and then.....nothing.....

I am not sure what is going to pop the current bubble....but I sense it has already happened......I can feel the momentum changing.....

The Dead Cat Bounce was just a few short months of more delusion and denial ......because it is TOO depressing to wake up and see what is actually happening right under our noses.....

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Remember MT - Most of what you hear/read - and the "official" figures are completely RIGGED.

Also - very small volumes & turnover -- So no real way of knowing how the ordinary Tom, Dick & Harry end of the market is REALLY performing.

ALSO -- SO MANY properties have been sitting on the "market" for MONTHS - and YEARS!!!

SO - reality yet to hit the UK MT.......

Yes, I am fully aware of that Eric. Do not be mistaken - I am still very bearish on house prices, the economy and the markets.

My gut feeling is that we have still to see the worst and that my gut is telling me that we will see FTSE 2995 before the end of the year. Don't get me started on the feeling in my water. :blink:

The denial in the housing market in my local area is truly staggering though. It has finally hit home to me that for all the years I was working as an IT Consultant that not only was I one of the highest earners in Wales but that I was one of the few people who actually did not work in the Public Sector but...

Those who did work in the PS now all have houses which are ridiculously price, have better pensions than myself and, something which I was not aware was happening in recent years, the salaries of many middle and senior PS managers now competes with, and often beats, the private sector.

That is, um, galling.

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I can hear what you are saying and I am hoping that other members will shed some light on why this is happening, perhaps I should have started a new thread on this ?

You say, "why is the UK having a dead-cat bounce?" Is it that there is just such a HUGE vested interest?

The BOE official that warned Darling "Not To Stop the Housing Crash" said:

I am just thinking once again about Dr Bubb's images and the whole "rug pull" "swing theory" ......

Yes, ENORMOUS vested interests - the problem is that the prudent, you and I, are paying for the feckless. I am really cheesed off with this now.

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One of the main problems is that in recent years the proceeds of HPI have in no insignificant part been fueling the UK economy. In its absence there is nothing to plug that gap it just becomes an ever widening chasm. Government encouraged by big business created and then fed the HPI monster and now it's just waaaay too big to let die without first trying to support and revive it by any means necessary.

Die it will however.

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One of the main problems is that in recent years the proceeds of HPI have in no insignificant part been fueling the UK economy. In its absence there is nothing to plug that gap it just becomes an ever widening chasm. Government encouraged by big business created and then fed the HPI monster and now it's just waaaay too big to let die without first trying to support and revive it by any means necessary.

Die it will however.

For these reasons it has a long way to go before it dies, if it does indeed die.

Quantative Easing will help them.

Banks making profits again will help them.

Realistbear often said (at the start of the troubles that UK follows the USA.

House prices are rising in the USA.

Where they go so too goes the UK.

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House prices are rising in the USA.

O RLY?

Home Price Declines Accelerate in Second Quarter

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Home price declines in the U.S. accelerated in the second quarter, dropping by a record 15.6 percent from a year earlier, as foreclosures weighed on values.

The median price of an existing single-family home dropped to $174,100, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said today. Total sales rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million from the first quarter and fell 2.9 percent from 2008’s second quarter.

Who to believe? You or Bloomberg?

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Both its just been on Bloomberg (Hong Kong).

The guy was saying prices in USA have risen 14% since January 2009.

Hard link or you're talking your book (to put it mildly.)

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On Bloomberg TV (I dont know how to give you the link)

Nope.

Here's some outrageously bullish piece from today:

Housing, Factory Declines Probably Eased: U.S. Economy Preview

Which still ends up having to admit:

At the same time, price declines, driven largely by foreclosures, are helping lift demand. Homeowners cut asking prices by $27.8 billion in the year through Aug. 1, according to Trulia Inc., a San Francisco-based real estate data provider. Some of the biggest reductions were in Nevada and Florida, states hardest hit by the property slump.

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On Bloomberg TV (I dont know how to give you the link)

I'm in the US and there is definately not a housing recover underway. In fact there is considerable thought it is about to get worse again. The US rules are about to make banks declare the true book values of houses they are sitting on. That means a sudden announcement of losses again. Big stuff. Plus a close friend is about to throw the keys back at the bank, so this is still going on en masse.

As for the statement that where they US goes UK follows. So where is the dramatic crash, presumably we are still only part the way through before we have washed all the toxic assets out. And don't forget we leveraged ourselves far greater than the US (per head) so we should be hit much greater. I suspect the governments nudging banks to try and work it out with indebted mortgagees has helped stave off a sudden drop so far, but that has to end some time when banks realise it was all talk and now they have lost even more money by waiting.

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For these reasons it has a long way to go before it dies, if it does indeed die.

Quantative Easing will help them.

Banks making profits again will help them.

Realistbear often said (at the start of the troubles that UK follows the USA.

House prices are rising in the USA.

Where they go so too goes the UK.

US house prices suffer record fall

By Simone Baribeau

Published: August 13 2009 03:00 | Last updated: August 13 2009 03:00

The median price for single family homes in the US fell a record 15.6 per cent to $174,100 in the second quarter from the year before, as foreclosures brought budget-conscious buyers back to the housing market, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.

Simone Baribeau, New York

Why US Prices Will Keep Crashing

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For these reasons it has a long way to go before it dies, if it does indeed die.

Quantative Easing will help them.

Banks making profits again will help them.

Realistbear often said (at the start of the troubles that UK follows the USA.

House prices are rising in the USA.

Where they go so too goes the UK.

But they fell first which is an inportant step

We cannot just skip b and jump right to c

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