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Hints Of A Rebound In Global Trade

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World trade, which virtually collapsed last fall, appears to be starting to recover. But the rebound so far is small, providing little evidence that the world economy is about to start growing at a good pace.

The United States reported this week that its exports in June were up 2.2 percent from the previous month. It was the first time in a year that exports had risen for two consecutive months.

As the accompanying chart shows, most countries are now seeing an increase in trade, but volumes remain far below those of a year ago. To offset currency swings, all figures are based on the dollar volume of exports, not adjusted for inflation.

Japan reported that its June exports were up 1.1 percent in June, but were 31 percent below the level of a year ago. Still, that decline was much better than the 42 percent year-over-year decline posted in March.

In the credit crisis that grew severe last fall, both industrial production and world trade fell off much faster than final sales to consumers. That has set the stage for a recovery in trade even if there is none in consumer demand, as shipments are adjusted to final demand.

There is a good chance that exports, particularly those directed to the United States, will pick up significantly over the next few months, as many industries restock inventories. That will especially be true for the automobile industry, which was surprised by the success of the “cash for clunkers†program.

Total American imports of cars, trucks and parts over the first half of 2009 were half those of the same period of 2008, when the American economy was already in recession. Not since 1994 had auto-related imports been so low in the first six months of a year.

China, which is among the first countries to report its trade figures each month, disclosed its July figures this week, showing a 3.7 percent gain on a seasonally adjusted basis. The American share of Chinese exports rose to its highest level since before the recession began, providing a sign that American figures for July will start to show larger gains in imports.

For now, however, the American trade deficit, which seemed like an overwhelming problem a couple of years ago, appears to be much diminished. The trade deficit in goods other than petroleum was under $20 billion in June, the first time that had happened since January 1999.

Global recovery is go everyone is exporting more than before.

It's all over folks credit crisis has ended.

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Happy day's are here again, Lah Lah Lah flying pigs.

Gordon brown is brilliant, politicians are honest people, let me just stick my head in the sand for a while..

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June 2009 --------------- Released 10:00 A.M. EDT August 5, 2009


Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Jessica Young

(301) 763-4832

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $168.3 billion, revised from the previously published 0.2 percent decrease. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.7 percent May decrease.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.6 billion or 2.2 percent to $159.1 billion, revised from the previously published 2.5 percent decrease. This followed a 1.3 percent May increase.

New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $5.0 billion or 2.7 percent to $190.0 billion.

It's non durable that seem to be doing well, food etc. The supply side has to contract to norm then the recession will pull it down further.


There are a couple of shining stars

Defense aircraft and parts:

Shipments………………………….. + 22.5% 09/08

New Orders………………………… + 15.7 09/08

Defense capital goods:

Shipments…………………………..+14.2% 09/08

New Orders………………………… + 2.0% 09/08

These are the only two to have positive growth though.

Edited by three pint princess

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What did they export I wonder - a few crates of cheerios and a couple of Jeeps. I guess in percentage terms this would make a difference. In Q2 they sold four crates of cheerios and a Jeep, in Q3 they sold four and a half crates of cheerios and 2 jeeps. Viva la recovereh!

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I find this daily report a useful indicator on the world economy.


> - China says no new steel expansion approvals for 3 years

> - Real demand needed to support higher prices - WSR

> - N. European strip prices continue to strengthen

> - Ship plate import prices move up to $600/t in SE Asia

> - Chinese domestic plate prices fall, export prices stable

> - OECD economic indicators point to emergence from slowdown

> - CIS billet export prices peak, eyes on Turkey

> - Brazilian mills to get higher slab export prices in August

> - SBB Special Report: 'Flurry of action' behind US BF restarts


> Asia

> - Indian galvanizers hike prices in August

> - Chinese domestic HRC prices continue downwards

> - Shanghai H-beam prices drop

> - Chinese domestic billet prices drop

> - Hysco's CRC output jumps 58% q-o-q in Q2

> - Japanese eye recovering Thai auto sector


> Europe

> - Stemcor's European & stockholding operations suffer in H1


> North America

> - US exports rebound; sales to India, Panama, Nigeria boom


> Middle East & Africa

> - Turkish mills press for higher domestic rebar prices

> - Egyptian strip market on hold

> - Turkish sections exports continue to slow


> Scrap & Raw Materials

> - Patchy iron ore benchmark deals leave pellet maker exposed


> Stainless steel & Ferro-alloys

> - EU investigates stainless fastener dumping allegations

> - New ferro-alloy smelter to be built in Indonesia

> - Asian stainless prices continue surging


> Tubes & Pipes

> - China’s welded pipe prices falling slowly

> - Korea tries again to sell its 3,000 t of ERW pipes

> - China builds giant power pylons using pipe

Do you have a link?

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