The Slow Grind: If It Takes Another 8 Years To Reach 50% Off 2007 Peak Prices

[thedebtisreal]

It seems to me that after the little burst of House Price Deflation, a long slower grind in prices seem to be the likely future, a la Japan.

If that is the case, how long would you wait to buy? Could you see out another eight years to buy at the bottom, or would you buy in four and take what you can.

Do you have time on your side? What are your personal circumstances?

Interested in the forums thoughts on this.

Edited: For appalling grammar.

Edited August 14, 2009 by thedebtisreal

[guitarman001]

Happy to wait as long as it takes. All depends upon employment - if I stay here, me and my girlfriend will stay in her flat (mortgage paid off) and save until we can buy a bigger place outright - if we even want to! Might use the money to enjoy ourselves. If I move down south for job purposes then I'd still wait as long as it takes.

I say that now, but let's see what happens!

[Lazybones]

It seems to me that after the little burst of House Price Deflation, a long slower grind in prices seem to be the likely future, a la Japan.

If that is the case, how long would you wait to buy? Could you see out another eight years to buy at the bottom, or would you buy in four and take what you can.

Do you have time on your side? What is your personal circumstances.

Interested in the forums thoughts on this.

Would like to buy sooner BUT only at a realistic price. Happy to sell current home for less and move up while paying less. Current place will be paid off within 5 years, so happy to wait. Bigger question is when/how can we fix the economy. In a free market everyone should be looking to accept lower pay in the current conditions, from bankers to waitresses, the overall market would fall then rise again. As none of us are really prepared to do this we enter a period of artificial market making by industry and government that only creates more problems for the future.

[Kinky John]

It seems to me that after the little burst of House Price Deflation, a long slower grind in prices seem to be the likely future, a la Japan.

If that is the case, how long would you wait to buy? Could you see out another eight years to buy at the bottom, or would you buy in four and take what you can.

Do you have time on your side? What is your personal circumstances.

Interested in the forums thoughts on this.

The bubble booms have altered my perspective so dramatically I won't buy and hold any asset until it is clearly extremely cheap on a future revenue basis (stock and housing are a joke). Given that housing is an awfully illiquid depreciating investment and I don't need stability because I don't have kids I intend to basically have nothing to do with it unless there is absolute carnage (i.e. 50-60% drops).

I can easily afford to buy a one bed flat outright in central London (i.e. I am in the top 0.1% of all earners). Don't see why I should throw the money away though and with everything terribly inflated and mispriced liquidity is a premium I will pay for with a lower standard of living.

[clv101]

There's more to it than buying at the bottom of the market. If you have to wait 8 years for the bottom how much have you spend on rent compared to interest on a mortgage and the capital depreciation? I could be better to buy 4 years before the bottom, if the bottom is only say £10k lower. The price of the house isn't the only factor to consider, even if you are driven purely by economic factors. In reality non-economic factors come into most people's decision making process. This does not make them bad decisions, just other aspects being more important that losing a few £10ks (which of course you only experience when you sell).

[Mugwump Boy]

Sold to rent three years ago now - relocated from London to Shropshire in that time too. Thought it would be a year tops before owning again. Now it's looking like longer thanks to Broon's QE propping up the bubble. I would buy tomorrow if I could find decent place at 30% off peak. Seeing 15% or so at the moment (but continuing falls locally).

Reasons for buying? I am 35, have kids, want security of owning home (would be outright for cash); want a garden i can tend for the next 30 years and grow apple trees in. None of those are solid reasons for buying but I'm a child of Thatcher and I guess the brainwashing of 'you must own a home' was strong for my generation.

But main reason for wanting to buy is this - who wants to be holding a large sum of cash over the next 10 years? I'd rather have an asset that's not golden and I can't see property falls greater than 50% coming - so am willing to buy at 30% off and take my chances...

If I was younger and without a family, though, I think I'd be emigrating. The next 10 years in the UK are going to be unpleasant.

[waitingandsaving]

I won't be waiting 8 years - it's getting to the point where I want to have the freedom to make a house a home, without asking for agreement from someone else (other than Mr W&S of course!) - I think if rental arrangements in this country changed, than I would be fine renting for as years, but while the scrutty little oik turns up for an "inspection" every 6 months, I'll always be keen to move on

We're very lucky in that we've been saving a good deposit, and so things feel a lot more achievable than they did even 2 years ago. Having said that, I'm not prepared to be totally fleeced - as that would be hard saved cash down the drain!

However, I still feel a bit riled at the fact that housing is still grossly overvalued, and still hope for credit restricitons and sensible lending practices ASAP...

[Guest Daddy Bear]

There's more to it than buying at the bottom of the market. If you have to wait 8 years for the bottom how much have you spend on rent compared to interest on a mortgage and the capital depreciation? I could be better to buy 4 years before the bottom, if the bottom is only say £10k lower. The price of the house isn't the only factor to consider, even if you are driven purely by economic factors. In reality non-economic factors come into most people's decision making process. This does not make them bad decisions, just other aspects being more important that losing a few £10ks (which of course you only experience when you sell).

Exactly

You also have to consider:

1. The availability of best mortgages on offer.

2. That the nominal trough may be around now and the inflation adjusted trough might not come for 5 years.

Two years after the crash began - 35% off peak on a desirable house sounds good to me

Everyone will have their window of opportunity - take it when it comes.

People on here need to realise the bottom of the market is based on "the price of an individual house" and not "time". (For some it may be now - for others it may be in 10 years). You are not trading Halliwide Property Indices.

[seriousz]

Can't stand to wait another 8 years - even 2 seems too long.

I'll be 40 this year, and though I don't have any problem at all with renting, the neighbourhood we're in now seems to be going steadily downhill...

I'm not concerned about spotting the absolute nadir of the market, but I loathe debt and there's no way I can buy a decent property without what I would consider a hefty mortgate (probably 60-80k).

Give it another year and I think I won't be able to resist any longer.

[godless]

3 years to buy a house or I leave the country.... I've had enough.

[Fully Detached]

Give it another year and I think I won't be able to resist any longer.

I'm thinking 12-18 months should be enough to see what the pace of future falls is likely to be - and (without wishing to give Daddy Bear and more *****ing material) whether they are nominal or inflation adjusted. I'll make a decision at that point.

[Fudge]

I will wait until next year to see what the situation is and re evaluate, if house prices are falling and look like

falling further then I will be in no great rush to buy. There maybe better places to put my money.

[SHERWICK]

I am willing to wait until I die to buy the house of my dreams.

[guitarman001]

I just have to look at the MSE forums. Look how many people are absolutely bricking it because their mortgages are £100k, £200k+, and they even start their own clubs in order to encourage each other to pay it off sooner rather than later (admirable, but due to high costs the time-scales are in the regions of decades). No THANKYOU, mister... I'll wait forever until prices comes down to reasonable values. The more people that think like this the better.

[athom]

Until it makes economic sense to buy No idea when that will be and it's different for everyone.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

I will wait until it makes financial sense.

Hopefully that will be next year or the one after

Otherwise will have to seriously consider leaving the country.

Planning to re-evaluate next summer, see what happens over the autumn/winter and if there is another spring bounce.

[Goat]

I'll be 40 this year, and though I don't have any problem at all with renting, the neighbourhood we're in now seems to be going steadily downhill...

One of the benefits of renting: don't like the neighbours, all it costs you is a day's hire of a van.

Edited August 14, 2009 by Young Goat

[guitarman001]

Shouldn't have to move for terrible neighbours. This is one thing that really bugs me. Too many people sit back and ignore problems, leaving somebody else to deal with them. Of late I've started to get really peeved and plainly speak my mind - some chav smoking at the back of the bus t'other day came over to me and asked if he could shut the window. I told him plainly no, and that if he doesn't put the cig out I'd put it out for him. Is there nobody else who gets so frustrated? I need a break!

[Mugwump Boy]

some chav smoking at the back of the bus t'other day came over to me and asked if he could shut the window.

What polite chavs you have in your neck of the woods!

[guitarman001]

Not usually as polite as this dude lol!! Usually they slam the window shut even if you're sitting right beneath it - that REALLY gets on my nerves as you tend to sh!t your pants.

[Goat]

Shouldn't have to move for terrible neighbours. This is one thing that really bugs me. Too many people sit back and ignore problems, leaving somebody else to deal with them. Of late I've started to get really peeved and plainly speak my mind - some chav smoking at the back of the bus t'other day came over to me and asked if he could shut the window. I told him plainly no, and that if he doesn't put the cig out I'd put it out for him. Is there nobody else who gets so frustrated? I need a break!

Agreed but sometimes it just isn't worth the effort.

Intervene and there's a good chance you'll either get stabbed or kicked to death, and if you do survive you'll probably end up getting prosecuted for something or other.

[Kazuya]

I plan to buy no later than 2011. I'm hoping prices will be down by 30% off peak atleast in my area of interest. Current prices are circa 20% off peak with achieved sale prices leaning towards 25~30% off peak so an achieved sale price of 35-40% off peak is what I'm after.

Thanks to Liebour with their QE and holding back reposessions, the HPC is going to drag on for longer.

[23rdian]

I just have to look at the MSE forums. Look how many people are absolutely bricking it because their mortgages are £100k, £200k+, and they even start their own clubs in order to encourage each other to pay it off sooner rather than later (admirable, but due to high costs the time-scales are in the regions of decades). No THANKYOU, mister... I'll wait forever until prices comes down to reasonable values. The more people that think like this the better.

What? Like this one http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showth....html?t=1879421

Yeah, I know it's serious repayments. We have a few BTLs

Our neighbours have a tiny mortgage compared to us. They bought the same house at about 130k 12 years ago, ours was 480k (now worth about 325 - 350k) at the height of the boom

£4329.80 per month or £51,957.60 per year, if you include interest payments at an average of 6%. The total repayment will be £519,480 over the 10 years. Quite a challenge!

No, you think?

Edited August 14, 2009 by 23rdian

[jungllie jim]

At the moment got until Jan 2014 when my current contract expires.

Might be offered a further career extension in May 2010 which could be anything from 2 to 10 years.

Quite happy to sit back and watch the fund grow.

[DownsizingDiva]

I just have to look at the MSE forums. Look how many people are absolutely bricking it because their mortgages are £100k, £200k+, and they even start their own clubs in order to encourage each other to pay it off sooner rather than later (admirable, but due to high costs the time-scales are in the regions of decades). No THANKYOU, mister... I'll wait forever until prices comes down to reasonable values. The more people that think like this the better.

I agree 100% with what you are saying. I could afford to buy outright now (circa. £200K) but for what that would give me, I'll wait, thanks very much...