MOP Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 (edited) ‘The World Is in Trouble’: Deutsche Bank Chief EconomistPublished: Wednesday, 12 Aug 2009 | 9:55 PM ET Text Size By: CNBC.com The global economy still faces turmoil as government try to figure out how to move out of fiscal rescue packages, which could lead to another two downturns, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter said Thursday. In addition, nervousness on the part of major dollar holders could pressure the greenback and lead to a very worrying 2010, Walter said. Norbert said recently in research notes “the world is in trouble.†“I believe that the rescue packages brought on have been so costly for so many governments that the exit from this fiscal policy will be very painful, very painful indeed,†he said. “Some of us are already talking about a W-shaped recovery. I’d probably talk about a triple-U-shaped recovery because there are so many stumbling blocks here to get out of this.†“There are a few countries that have not dismissed people, they had a dramatic drop in their sales but they kept on people because they believed the recession would be very shallow,†Walter said. “They now have to fire people. That will increase unemployment and they therefore, of course, may be endangering retail sales in some countries.†If Australia hikes rates in September or October, markets “will certainly shiver†and cause zig-zagging at the bottom of the recession, Walter said. And while the White House struggles with issues like health care and puts a fiscal policy exit strategy on the back burner, there are big concerns of about the direction of the U.S. dollar. “I’m deeply worried about the worries of those investors who have invested a lot, really a lot into the dollar†like the Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and Russians, he said. “If they have second thoughts about the quality of this currency then the dollar is bound to weaken†which means higher long-term interest rates for a country where government debt is approaching 100 percent of gross domestic product, he said. If that happens, “2010 could be a worrisome year for all of us,†he said. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32396144 Video interview at the above link. This ties in well with the Elizabeth Warren revelations about the true state of the US banks. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/32385463#32385463 Edited August 13, 2009 by MOP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 I'm sure the stimulus packages will keep things on the up through until the second half of 2010 at the earliest. Early 2011 at the latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 (edited) I'm sure the stimulus packages will keep things on the up through until the second half of 2010 at the earliest. Early 2011 at the latest. Its the stimulus packages that are the problem. “I’m deeply worried about the worries of those investors who have invested a lot, really a lot into the dollar†like the Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and Russians, he said.“If they have second thoughts about the quality of this currency then the dollar is bound to weaken†which means higher long-term interest rates for a country where government debt is approaching 100 percent of gross domestic product, he said. like the Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and Russians They are going to be paid back in worthless paper by the time this goes through .....then the dollar is bound to weaken... You don't say .... which means higher long-term interest rates for a country where government debt is approaching 100 percent of gross domestic product Now that my friend is where you are wrong. It is an impossibility. Man people are thick - how do they get where they are? Edited August 13, 2009 by Daddy Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Game_Over Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 I thought the recession was now over in the Eurozone. We are just being fed wall to wall B*llshit at the moment by politicians, economists and the media. We just had the biggest credit bubble in history Followed by the biggest bank bail outs in History And when the Sh*t finally hits the fan we are going to have the worst depression in History IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shedfish Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 so it IS a VW shaped recession you heard it here on HPC first http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=2076844 even before Deutsche Bank! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Sherlock Holmes is alive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 (edited) I'm sure the stimulus packages will keep things on the up through until the second half of 2010 at the earliest. Early 2011 at the latest. I don't think so. Elizabeth Warren is overseeing the US "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act" and has just lifted the lid on the true state of the US banks. It's not pretty. She expects the next wave to hit the banks in early 2010 when the heavy loses from the Option-ARM/ALt-A/CRE defaults start to kick in. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/32385463#32385463 If the banks are still under water now, how will they cope when this all kicks off in early 2010? Edited August 13, 2009 by MOP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 (edited) I don't think so. Elizabeth Warren is overseeing the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act has now lifted the lid on the true state of the US banks. It's not pretty. She expects the next wave to hit the banks in early 2010 when the heavy loses from the Option-ARM/ALt-A/CRE defaults start to kick in. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/32385463#32385463 If the banks are still under water now, how will they cope when this all kicks off in early 2010? And people really want to be in cash in 2010 ? It sends a shiver down my spine. Edited August 13, 2009 by Daddy Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest UK Debt Slave Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 http://www.cnbc.com/id/32396144Video interview at the above link. ‘The World Is in Trouble’ No $hit Sherlock Very quick these bankers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shug Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 CNBC report eh? Even that weird gimp Brown is more accurate in his predictions, and he himself, is a laughing stock. With CNBCs art cashins style reports, they can never ever be taken seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loginandtonic Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 just back from asda frozen veg UP broc up from £1 to £1.22 sp cauli 54p to 82p (approx) hypervegflation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 CNBC report eh? Even that weird gimp Brown is more accurate in his predictions, and he himself, is a laughing stock.With CNBCs art cashins style reports, they can never ever be taken seriously. Which part of "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" did you not understand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 I thought the recession was now over in the Eurozone. We are just being fed wall to wall B*llshit at the moment by politicians, economists and the media. We just had the biggest credit bubble in history Followed by the biggest bank bail outs in History And when the Sh*t finally hits the fan we are going to have the worst depression in History IMO. halleluiah! There just ain't no avoiding this financial malaise possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Which part of "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" did you not understand? Perhaps you should be more accurate? Still waiting for the Jordan stories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Relaxation Suite Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 And people really want to be in cash in 2010 ? It sends a shiver down my spine. Of course people want to be in cash. We're not going to have the ole guns-and-beans scenario, and we're not going Weimar either. The reality is property is going to lose significantly more of its value from this point, and will stay depressed for years and years. In this period IRs are going up, more houses will be repossessed, and cash in banks will earn more and more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shug Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Which part of "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" did you not understand? Art Cashin is floor operations manager for UBS and he talks utter shite aswell. What part of 'Art Cashin' do you not understand?. As an extra, what part of 'CNBC report eh?' do you not understand? With dumb idiots like you about, with nothing to come back on except a pathetic ''Which part of "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" did you not understand?'', no wonder the UK has gone to the dogs If you are of the ilk who will swallow the garbage of a two bob bit economist, you need help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 Art Cashin is floor operations manager for UBS and he talks utter shite aswell. What part of 'Art Cashin' do you not understand?. As an extra, what part of 'CNBC report eh?' do you not understand? With dumb idiots like you about, with nothing to come back on except a pathetic ''Which part of "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" did you not understand?'', no wonder the UK has gone to the dogs If you are of the ilk who will swallow the garbage of a two bob bit economist, you need help Who let you out for the day. I know who Art Cashin is and he's a tw@t, but this article is not about Art Cashin or CNBC, it's about Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Of course people want to be in cash. We're not going to have the ole guns-and-beans scenario, and we're not going Weimar either. The reality is property is going to lose significantly more of its value from this point, and will stay depressed for years and years. In this period IRs are going up, more houses will be repossessed, and cash in banks will earn more and more. So why is oil rising now to $70? Why are global stockmarkets rising? Why are nearly all commodity prices rising? Why is lending increasing again in UK mortgage market? Why have the Halliwide indices been showing rises in UK property for last few months? Why is Germany and France officially out of recession? Why are UK retail sales still very high? Why is Gold on the verge of an all time high? Why are the US$ and UK £ on a downward trend Why are prices rising on most things that I buy in the shops rising? Why are withdrawls from banks and building societies at record highs? It all seems very strange...... WHY? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1929crash Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Which part of "Deutsche Bank Chief Economist" did you not understand? Must have been the Deutsche bit that got him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
16bit Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Of course people want to be in cash. We're not going to have the ole guns-and-beans scenario, and we're not going Weimar either. The reality is property is going to lose significantly more of its value from this point, and will stay depressed for years and years. In this period IRs are going up, more houses will be repossessed, and cash in banks will earn more and more. So simple, but yet so spot on. Cash is the banker's tool and so will always win the day. Those hoping for gold, beans or whatever else can keep on dreaming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 (edited) So simple, but yet so spot on.Cash is the banker's tool and so will always win the day. Those hoping for gold, beans or whatever else can keep on dreaming. Cash is the banker's tool and so will always win the day I think you may be the tool...... Those hoping for gold, beans or whatever else can keep on dreaming Try commodities or UK housing Edited August 13, 2009 by Daddy Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
16bit Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 I think you may be the tool...... Try commodities or UK housing You think I may be the tool? Yes, a useful tool. On the other hand, you may be a fool!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
16bit Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 (edited) Try commodities or UK housing You're so gonna regret buying that house. Still, a fool and their money BTW, hope you have enough money to pay your council tax soon Edited August 13, 2009 by Craig77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otters Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 And people really want to be in cash in 2010 ? It sends a shiver down my spine. Maybe, maybe not, I am waiting and ready to move if the need be. Now is the time for vigilance, not panic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 You're so gonna regret buying that house. Still, a fool and their money BTW, hope you have enough money to pay your council tax soon You're so gonna regret buying that house. Still, a fool and their money 32% off and I STR'd at the peak.... hope you have enough money to pay your council tax soon you too + rent money... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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