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sutemiwaza

Which Property Index Do You Believe, If Any?

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Having debate in our office if any of the indexes are any good. Have been watching our local market in central London climb since about Feb/March (at least for flats) and the national indexes are only just reporting an upturn....

...Land Registry too slow as completion can be several months after exchange

...Halifax and Nationwide dont cover central London (not an issue for most and makes a change from London centric papers)

....Hometrack and Rightmove too speculative

...Savills just seem to use their agents waving their finger in the air

...John D Wood ...not national... but do use pounds per square foot at date of exchange...(and showed some pretty large falls)

..Knight Frank...again top end but do not seem to use actual transactional data just finger in the air

We get asked all the time by buyers what is happening to the market....locally it is strong as we have never had such a shortage of property.

The easy answer is it depends on what you are after..national or local?

Still believe we are going to get all the indexes pointing down ;) ....but with the shortage of properties not for the next few months (too many owners sitting on their hands).

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Having debate in our office if any of the indexes are any good. Have been watching our local market in central London climb since about Feb/March (at least for flats) and the national indexes are only just reporting an upturn....

...Land Registry too slow as completion can be several months after exchange

...Halifax and Nationwide dont cover central London (not an issue for most and makes a change from London centric papers)

....Hometrack and Rightmove too speculative

...Savills just seem to use their agents waving their finger in the air

...John D Wood ...not national... but do use pounds per square foot at date of exchange...(and showed some pretty large falls)

..Knight Frank...again top end but do not seem to use actual transactional data just finger in the air

We get asked all the time by buyers what is happening to the market....locally it is strong as we have never had such a shortage of property.

The easy answer is it depends on what you are after..national or local?

Still believe we are going to get all the indexes pointing down ;) ....but with the shortage of properties not for the next few months (too many owners sitting on their hands).

I believe Rightmove is the most accurate index. However, it may not be the most relevant, as you probably aren't interested in asking prices.

Ultimately, you have to understand that all the indices have their limitations and look at the overall picture rather than track a single number.

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Land Registry. Yes, they lag, but once you take that into consideration, it is the only true index.

The Land Registry index excludes new builds and repossessions. There is also the problem with some prices being overstated due to gifted deposits.

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<snip>There is also the problem with some prices being overstated due to gifted deposits.

That's not entirely true, given that the LR works with matched pairs, new builds do not affect the HPI figures until sold a (more accurate price) second time.

EDIT: I would accept that anyone downloading a register will see the first purchase (inflated) price paid if they were researching the area even if the figure was not in the HPI figures.

Edited by Driver

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I believe Rightmove is the most accurate index. However, it may not be the most relevant, as you probably aren't interested in asking prices.

Ultimately, you have to understand that all the indices have their limitations and look at the overall picture rather than track a single number.

Please renounce your bear status right now and ****** off to Singingpig........ You believe rightmove to be an accurate index of houseprices despite the fact that it is openly an index of ASKING PRICES????? You are an idiot.

Please explain how it can be accurate but not relevant, without making yourself look like a total twit!!!!!!

Rant over!

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I dont believe any specific Index is worth believing. You need to localise and understand what is happening in the market you may want to buy in.

The only figures worth believing are those for the land registry sold prices for the type of house you want to buy in the area you want to buy. For me its CV5, 3 beds, near a park / woodland & on a quiet street. So these are the prices I monitor.

I can report there is no bounce round my way. Sold prices falling through the floor.

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I dont believe any specific Index is worth believing. You need to localise and understand what is happening in the market you may want to buy in.

The only figures worth believing are those for the land registry sold prices for the type of house you want to buy in the area you want to buy. For me its CV5, 3 beds, near a park / woodland & on a quiet street. So these are the prices I monitor.

I can report there is no bounce round my way. Sold prices falling through the floor.

I monitor cv4 +10 miles and I concur. Price drops are picking up again on property bee

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The average price of all property transactions completed in England & Wales in July 2009 was 0.1% higher than in June.

Does it really include ALL property transactions?

It doesn't include auction and repos if that's what you mean.

But there are good reasons for not including these.

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I monitor cv4 +10 miles and I concur. Price drops are picking up again on property bee

Some asking prices in CV4 are crazy though. I live on the old Massey Ferguson site, 3 houses on my street for sale. Asking prices are above what LR shows the vendors paid in 2007. Bearing in mind the developer will have gifted them at least 5% deposit, it makes you wonder what planet these people are on. And more to the point, how does the agent keep a straight face when these people agree on to instruct them at these prices?

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Please renounce your bear status right now and ****** off to Singingpig........ You believe rightmove to be an accurate index of houseprices despite the fact that it is openly an index of ASKING PRICES????? You are an idiot.

Please explain how it can be accurate but not relevant, without making yourself look like a total twit!!!!!!

Rant over!

Because it measures asking prices extremely accurately. If you want to know if asking prices are going up, down or sideways, the Rightmove index will tell you that. If you want to know how much house prices are selling for, or what they are worth, then of course, the Rightmove index is completely useless.

I do want to know what asking prices are doing, because I won't be buying until the Rightmove index moves back into alignment with the other indices. That will tell me that the denial phase of the crash is over.

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It doesn't include auction and repos if that's what you mean.

But there are good reasons for not including these.

It does include auction sales that are not repos. Whilst the LR would like to exclude auction sales, they have no way of spotting them.

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For my area the John D Wood Index seems on the money as it uses actual exchange data. Nationally I like the Land Registry even though it is late as it records completions and probably does not cover my area very well (alot use offshore companies).

Savills and Knight Frank are good for spin and a breakdown of buyer profiles. Their reports always cheer us up....

Anyone know anything about the FT index?

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Guest Daddy Bear
I dont believe any specific Index is worth believing. You need to localise and understand what is happening in the market you may want to buy in.

The only figures worth believing are those for the land registry sold prices for the type of house you want to buy in the area you want to buy. For me its CV5, 3 beds, near a park / woodland & on a quiet street. So these are the prices I monitor.

I can report there is no bounce round my way. Sold prices falling through the floor.

Spot on that man!

It's like the numpties that believe the Inflation figures.

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