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The Masked Tulip

Worst Recession Over

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In light of the economist from Goldmans saying that the UK recession is over has made me pause to wonder whether there has been a recession at all.

For the first time in history the 'recession' has been in the SE of England with most of the NE, Scotland and Wales unaffected.

Could it simply be that the SE, never knowing any unemployment or downturn, has had a hissy fit and considered themselves in a recession when, in fact, all they have had is a slight downturn?

Let's face it, this is not the 1980s or 1920s again in Surrey and Hampshire is it?

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Hey MT, I've see loads of job losses in S Wales. You must venture out of your Swansea bubble ;). I was in SE England during the last recession - early 90s - and that was BAD. I think they definitely know about recessions down there.

Edited by gruffydd

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This recession is being caused by a financial crisis, so the ones who are going to lose the most are those closest to the financial sector (especially those who work in it) and those people are in London and the southeast. There are huge losses yet to come in the financial sector which will lead to cuts in financial wages and in related sectors like law and real estate.

In addition, the biggest property bubble was in London, the southeast, and the kind of areas those people have second homes (e.g. the West country). So yes, I think this recession is not going to be evenly distributed.

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In light of the economist from Goldmans saying that the UK recession is over has made me pause to wonder whether there has been a recession at all.

For the first time in history the 'recession' has been in the SE of England with most of the NE, Scotland and Wales unaffected.

Could it simply be that the SE, never knowing any unemployment or downturn, has had a hissy fit and considered themselves in a recession when, in fact, all they have had is a slight downturn?

Let's face it, this is not the 1980s or 1920s again in Surrey and Hampshire is it?

?

A recession is two negative quarters of GDP.

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?

A recession is two negative quarters of GDP.

I think the Masked Tulip's point is that maybe all the contraction was in the south east of England.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Of course it's over for the YidSquid, they've had their sacks refilled and media PR has restored sentiment.

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I've finally heard of a friend of a friend who has been forced to buy additional holiday from her company so maybe there's a recession after all :lol: . I am in Portsmouth tho so it doesn't really count as 'SE' - it's a shit hole.

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I think stage one is the cycle getting back to a long term sustainable level. Such as supply

which had to fall even without a recession, we were masking inflation with cheap imports

and strong currency along with lax regulation.

The recession only starts once we get back to normality, we can't skip that part and it's

taken a couple of years to get here.

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I'm just really pleased. I mean we can get straight back on with spending spending spending.

Yes?

No.

When something seems too good to be true it is normally not correct. I see far more signs of continuing decline than those of an upturn.

Of course there are plenty of folk out there who act as though things are good/never were bad/have improved but I have a suspicion that they are mostly full of BS.

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In light of the economist from Goldmans saying that the UK recession is over has made me pause to wonder whether there has been a recession at all.

For the first time in history the 'recession' has been in the SE of England with most of the NE, Scotland and Wales unaffected.

Could it simply be that the SE, never knowing any unemployment or downturn, has had a hissy fit and considered themselves in a recession when, in fact, all they have had is a slight downturn?

Let's face it, this is not the 1980s or 1920s again in Surrey and Hampshire is it?

Pleez don't panic MT...this is indeed a seriouslyworryingnasty recession despite what the MSM project.

Things need to change...bigtime

Oh..have you bought a CR-V yet?

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Ah Yes! but it only takes quarter with +0.00001 % increase in GDP to end it. Then you need two more negative quarters to re-enter the recession, or is this classed as a new recession?

Officially it would probably be called a new recession but I would tend to just call it double dip recession like Roubini has.

It just shows how pointless the criteria is.

Edited by MOP

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Guest UK Debt Slave
In light of the economist from Goldmans saying that the UK recession is over has made me pause to wonder whether there has been a recession at all.

For the first time in history the 'recession' has been in the SE of England with most of the NE, Scotland and Wales unaffected.

Could it simply be that the SE, never knowing any unemployment or downturn, has had a hissy fit and considered themselves in a recession when, in fact, all they have had is a slight downturn?

Let's face it, this is not the 1980s or 1920s again in Surrey and Hampshire is it?

Armageddon postponed........ temporarily ;)

They are engaged in full scale looting and theft to keep the system going

It wont last

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Officially it would probably be called a new recession but I would tend to just call it double dip recession like Roubini has.

It just shows how pointless the criteria is.

Too right...we are experiencing a major bombardment of pointless criteria at the mo'

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No, it's not.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/32385463#32385463

This is just the beginning.

Thanks for the link

We have all seen the US reset charts... sobering stuff....

I hadn't realised that they have dropped mark to market on the toxic assets though.... was that done here too? ... is it worth it's own thread?

drop mark to market, 0.5% IRs and QE, no wonder things are looking like a recovereh!

Yay, it truly is different this time....... until the plates stop spinning :lol:

Edited by Bubble&Squeak

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Officially it would probably be called a new recession but I would tend to just call it double dip recession like Roubini has.

It just shows how pointless the criteria is.

Agreed. The criteria is geared towards those who want to think things are better than they really are. Not just this one but all of them.

Not quite sure why they can't just use the same criteria in both directions. Simple logic never seems to get used much.

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this "reccession" reminds me of the 2nd world war strategy where people are kidded into believing that we are winning the war when we were at our closest to loosing it. Mind games at best..........

The uk economy is buit on & around the housing pyramid & the last 24 months have proved it to me. Period.

I post very little on here now cos i know that the markets will prevail & no government can compete with them & there is no way way we are looking back on a reccession when unemployment is rising far more than is being reported. Again, mind games.

I find it quite amusing if not pathetic, as most do on here, to see the ramping & the VI that is banded about the media on a daily basis that all is OK & getting back on track when in reality that's not what we are witnessing.

I live abroad & have come back to my home city of Derby for the last 6 weeks & I am shocked just how quiet the place was last Tuesday afternoon. Hoards of market traders were shutting up shop by mid afternoon & you could sense the fear yet no one will come out and admit it. A bit like an alchoholic admitting they have a problem.

The government is trying everything it can & risking everything it has to keep the pyramid scam going.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite
Could it simply be that the SE, never knowing any unemployment or downturn,

This is an absurd thing to say. I have known plenty of people laid off in this recession and the last one and all were in the SE.

The only difference between the SE and other parts of Britain is that houses are more expensive relative to wages in the SE and people have even less disposable income there as a result.

Edited by D-503

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Agreed. The criteria is geared towards those who want to think things are better than they really are. Not just this one but all of them.

Not quite sure why they can't just use the same criteria in both directions. Simple logic never seems to get used much.

For those less able (such as I) to interpret your words perhaps you could elucidate :unsure:

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For those less able (such as I) to interpret your words perhaps you could elucidate :unsure:

To get into a recession you have to have 2 quarters negative in a row.

To get out of a recession you have to have 1 quarter positive.

There is a requirement for a trend to be in a recession.

There is no requirement for a trend to be out of a recession.

Hence 'officially' it is easier to get out of a recession than to get into one.

Positive delusional thinking at it's very best.

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this "reccession" reminds me of the 2nd world war strategy where people are kidded into believing that we are winning the war when we were at our closest to loosing it. Mind games at best..........

The uk economy is buit on & around the housing pyramid & the last 24 months have proved it to me. Period.

I post very little on here now cos i know that the markets will prevail & no government can compete with them & there is no way way we are looking back on a reccession when unemployment is rising far more than is being reported. Again, mind games.

I find it quite amusing if not pathetic, as most do on here, to see the ramping & the VI that is banded about the media on a daily basis that all is OK & getting back on track when in reality that's not what we are witnessing.

I live abroad & have come back to my home city of Derby for the last 6 weeks & I am shocked just how quiet the place was last Tuesday afternoon. Hoards of market traders were shutting up shop by mid afternoon & you could sense the fear yet no one will come out and admit it. A bit like an alchoholic admitting they have a problem.

The government is trying everything it can & risking everything it has to keep the pyramid scam going.

Aaah..a welcome breath of fresh (and realistic) air from abroad...

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