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France And Germany Exit Recession

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The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end year-long recessions in two of Europe's largest economies.

"The data is very surprising. After four negative quarters France is coming out of the red," said French Finance and Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.

Few analysts expected the economies to come out of recession this early.

The eurozone's official gross domestic product (GDP) figures will be released later on Thursday morning.

Both the French and German economies last grew in the first quarter of 2008.

'State umbrella'

The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted by a revised 3.5% in the first three months of the year.

And while exports rose 7% in June, the fastest pace in nearly three years, few analysts had expected a return to overall economic growth so quickly.

The country's Federal Statistics Office said that household and government expenditure had boosted growth.

It added that imports had declined "far more sharply than exports, which had a positive effect on GDP growth".

Analyst reaction to Germany's recovery was mixed.

"The recession has ended, and it has ended sooner than we all thought. We expect to see growth of 1% in the third quarter, which is very strong for Germany, and I wouldn't rule out the chance of even better growth," said Andreas Rees at Unicredit.

Others were more circumspect, arguing that the economy is over-reliant on government stimulus packages.

"What we're seeing is the impact of fiscal policy. The question is how lasting [the recovery] will be. There are lots of problems we haven't solved. In particular, the banking sector is still reliant on the state umbrella," said Jens-Oliver Niklasch at LBBW.

"As long as it's not clear that the bank's capital base is robust, we can't assume that the crisis is over."

Consumer spending

France's economy had contracted by a revised 1.1% in the first quarter.

Ms Largarde said that consumer spending and strong exports had helped to pull France out of recession.

"What we see is that consumption is holding up," she said.

Official figures showed that household consumption rose by 0.4% in the second quarter.

She said government incentive schemes for trading in old cars, together with falling prices, were helping consumers.

Foreign trade contributed 0.9% to the GDP figure - a "very strong impact", said Ms Largarde.

"[The figures are] a positive surprise, as many people were expecting slightly negative numbers," said Marie Diron at Oxford Economics.

But she warned that growth is "still very fragile".

"Investment is down, we still have surprisingly low stocking, and growth is boosted by the fact that imports fell sharply," she added.

Things are on the up again! Time for big red UPWARD pointing BBC arrows and captions behind the presenters?

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8198766.stm

The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end year-long recessions in two of Europe's largest economies.

"The data is very surprising. After four negative quarters France is coming out of the red," said French Finance and Economy Minister Christine Lagarde.

Few analysts expected the economies to come out of recession this early.

The eurozone's official gross domestic product (GDP) figures will be released later on Thursday morning.

Both the French and German economies last grew in the first quarter of 2008.

'State umbrella'

The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted by a revised 3.5% in the first three months of the year.

And while exports rose 7% in June, the fastest pace in nearly three years, few analysts had expected a return to overall economic growth so quickly.

The country's Federal Statistics Office said that household and government expenditure had boosted growth.

It's a miracle the recession has ended, rejoice rejoice rejoice.

France and Germany lead the way to the holy land of perpetual growth, it takes two straight quarters to get into a recession but only one for it to end.

We can all get back to consuming debt, house prices to recover.

It's all over folks the fat lady has sung.

Superb.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8198766.stm

It's a miracle the recession has ended, rejoice rejoice rejoice.

France and Germany lead the way to the holy land of perpetual growth, it takes two straight quarters to get into a recession but only one for it to end.

We can all get back to consuming debt, house prices to recover.

It's all over folks the fat lady has sung.

Superb.

Yes but she's singing that song about poor lost Persephone. Cover your ears.

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Yes, the Today programme (which is now slightly more bearable with Evan Davis on it) dug up some economist to tell us that the UK would surely follow shortly.

He forgot that debt levels, both national and private are far higher in the UK, and we are devaluing or currency by printing money to pay for a vast number of public sector non-jobs.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8198766.stm

It's a miracle the recession has ended, rejoice rejoice rejoice.

France and Germany lead the way to the holy land of perpetual growth, it takes two straight quarters to get into a recession but only one for it to end.

We can all get back to consuming debt, house prices to recover.

It's all over folks the fat lady has sung.

Superb.

:lol::lol::lol:

It must be contagious as New Zealand is also bouyant. Today the news predicted that house prices will rise by 24% in the next 12 months. This is clearly awesome news as the average house price is only about 6 times average salary where I am, so it all makes so much sense :lol::lol::lol:

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I'm so impressed.

What did the previous governments think they were doing to not be able to solve this major recession as quick as this modern lot.

Vive la printing machine!

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Guest Daddy Bear
CRACK UP BOOM COMING
What is a "Crack-Up Boom?"

Von Mises explains

"'This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.'

"But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

"It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last."

Mises is describing the lunatic phases of a classic inflationary cycle.

At first, no one can tell the difference between a real dollar - one that is earned, saved, invested or spent - and one that just came off the printing presses. They figure that the new dollar is as good as the old one. And then, prices rise...and people don't know what to make of it. Later, they begin to catch on...and all Hell breaks loose.

You see, if you could really get rich by printing more currency, Zimbabweans would all be as rich as Midas, since the Mugabe government runs the presses night and day.

Von Mises died in 1973 - long before this boom really got going - let alone cracked up. He may never have heard of a hedge fund...or even a derivative, for that matter. A world money system without gold? He probably couldn't have imagined it. People spending millions of dollars for a Warhol? Twenty million for a house in Mayfair? Chinese stocks at 40 times earnings? He would have chuckled in disbelief. He understood how national currency bubbles expand and how they pop, but he probably never would have imagined how insane things could get when you have a whole world monetary system in bubble mode.

EDITED TO ADD: I think I'll start a new thread on this....

Edited by Daddy Bear

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No-one that I know believes the worst is over in France.

Summer blip. Seasonal jobs and spend.

Wait till October

:lol:

Tomorrow

Tomorrow never comes

What kind of a fool

Do they take me for?

Tomorrow

A resting place for bums

A trap set in the slums

But I know the score

I won't take no for an answer

I was born to be a dancer now, Yeah!

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, as they say

Another working day and another chore

Tomorrow

An awful price to pay

I gave up yesterday

But they still want more

They are bound to compare me

To Fred Astaire when I'm done

Anyone who feels the rhythm

Movin' through em

Knows it's gonna do em good

To let the music burst out

When you feel assured

Let the people know it

. Let your laughter loose

Until your scream

Becomes a love-shout, ah

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's far away

Tomorrow, as they say,

Is reserved for dreams

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's looking grey

A playground always locked

Trains no winning teams

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

Agreed, you'll only find people talking pleasure in other peoples misery here.

Still at least they've all been proven completely and utterly wrong in their apocalyptic predictions :lol:

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

Your assuming we actually believe the news.

Well actually France and Germany might well be doing OK soon/now. The problems in the UK are the shame debt is wealth economy.

If you start to look at what passes for wealth in this country your soon see its not sustainable.

Still, good for France and German I say. But like I also said they didn't have anything like our debt and house price boom we did, not a touch on us there.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8198766.stm

It's a miracle the recession has ended, rejoice rejoice rejoice.

France and Germany lead the way to the holy land of perpetual growth, it takes two straight quarters to get into a recession but only one for it to end.

We can all get back to consuming debt, house prices to recover.

It's all over folks the fat lady has sung.

Superb.

What! "Old Europe" coming out of recession before the Anglo-Saxon economies... shurley shome mishtake ;)

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

In other news today, a Russian peasant farmer has completely discredited geneticists and the study of genetics. Instead, his miraculous work with the vernalisation of wheat will provide a bounty of food for all of Mother Russia!

Same style of toss, different bastards in charge.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

Sure it's a good thing. France barely had a recession anyway.

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

As someone living in France, I can tell you it ain't as rosy as the politicians would like to make out with these recent stats.

I don't know about Germany, but here in La Belle France the 0.3% will account for the massive stimulus package thrown at the economy by Sarko and his chums since Christmas. Factor in the holiday season, when all those lovely tourists come spend their euros/dollars etc , and you get "growth" of 0.3%

To be honest, for the amount of govt (taxpayers) money throw at the economy, I'd say +0.3% is a pretty poor return. So why be overjoyed?

Meanwhile, in other news: factories, shops closing down daily. Unemployment soaring. Queues at charity food centres hit record levels.

Still. Everyone will make what they will of the official stats. Good news. Bad news. Monsieur Dupont will be shrugging his shoulders with a "Plus ca change..........." ;)

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
As someone living in France, I can tell you it ain't as rosy as the politicians would like to make out with these recent stats.

I don't know about Germany, but here in La Belle France the 0.3% will account for the massive stimulus package thrown at the economy by Sarko and his chums since Christmas. Factor in the holiday season, when all those lovely tourists come spend their euros/dollars etc , and you get "growth" of 0.3%

To be honest, for the amount of govt (taxpayers) money throw at the economy, I'd say +0.3% is a pretty poor return. So why be overjoyed?

Meanwhile, in other news: factories, shops closing down daily. Unemployment soaring. Queues at charity food centres hit record levels.

Still. Everyone will make what they will of the official stats. Good news. Bad news. Monsieur Dupont will be shrugging his shoulders with a "Plus ca change..........." ;)

Global politicos, media and PR in "it's only a confidence issue" gambit.

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

there there bungy, you believe what the nice people on telly tell you

long term stability and long term prosperity would make me very happy

govt. spending and cash for clunkers etc. steals from the future and delays necessary pain. there may be a case for that to avoid disaster but dressing it up as "business as usual" and happy happy, joy joy is just propaganda for the masses.

believe what you want. prepare your own bed.

Edited by drrayjo

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

numerical, statistical growth at the cost of our childrens wealth. I would rather the truth. You wont hear it in the stats.

thanks mate.

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you guys really need to seek out help.

the joy you take in bad news, and the way you get upset about good news is just sad.

germany and france achieving some growth is a good thing.

Well for one thing, it removes one of Crash Gordon's "global problem" hiding places

So yeah, it's definately a good thing

Edited by pete.hpc

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Vive La Socialisme!

:lol:

(Sooooooooooooo pleased Gordon couldn't claim HE brought the UK out of it first)

Edit: As Mervyn said yesterday "IT'S THE LEVELS STUPID!!"

Edited by For no one

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