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The Recession Is Over !

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Well according to the BBC breakfast News anyway. In both the UK and Europe. This was stated as fact in those simple terms... :blink:

Apparently the UK recession is over due to what King said yesterday. I suppose that is one way of taking it.

Also the Recession in Europe is now officially over due to some tiny growth in Germany and France in the last quarter. Again - one way of taking it.

Personally I thought Europe had more than 2 countries in it. Then again I don't present the Business on BBC - so what do I know.

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They ignored the unemployment figures then?

aha

France and Germany "the recession is over."

Edited by HostPaul TAFKA Rover2000

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In France and Germany, but it's definition it is, but I don't think anyone suggested it was over in the U.K. Just that it's not getting any worse. Unemployment will continue to rise in most of Europe because it lags.

The € weakened very slightly at 7:30 when this was announced but it's hovering at €1.162 to the £ (€1.159 overnight)The € zone is a lot more countries than just those 2 and maybe traders forgot this for a second!

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They ignored the unemployment figures then?

aha

French and Germany "the recession is over."

They ignored pretty much everything it seems.

On again !! Big smile on his face. Although this time he put in the words 'Europe's largest economies'. Nice wee change.

Good to see he is now getting treated like a wee schoolboy by some chap from the city !!

This BBC boy is almost jumping about with 'The recession is over,The recession is over '.

:lol:

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In France and Germany, but it's definition it is, but I don't think anyone suggested it was over in the U.K. Just that it's not getting any worse. Unemployment will continue to rise in most of Europe because it lags.

The € weakened very slightly at 7:30 when this was announced but it's hovering at €1.162 to the £ (€1.159 overnight)The € zone is a lot more countries than just those 2 and maybe traders forgot this for a second!

The BBC did. About 4 times in the last 15 minutes alone............. :rolleyes:

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The BBC did. About 4 times in the last 15 minutes alone............. :rolleyes:

Yes I heard him. Raised timbre of voice and everything. Pathetic.

However, you obviously did the same and ignored him say "IN GERMANY AND FRANCE."

Edited for typo: It's a musical term, not a lumberjack cliché.

Edited by deflation

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They ignored the unemployment figures then?

aha

French and Germany "the recession is over."

Yes and that's why it's deemed a technical recession (based on GDP only), and there's strict criteria governing what one is. I'm sure everyone knows that when the recession is over and it could be next quarter IMO, that doesn't mean everything starts smelling of roses, there's so much slack in the economy it will be a long time before growth translates into jobs.

And it's debatable whether or not we'll get real growth.

<<edit>>

Hold on, dId you mean they ignored unemployment in relation to a recession, or yesterdays figures didn't count as a story ?

Edited by slurms mackenzie

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!

This BBC boy is almost jumping about with 'The recession is over,The recession is over '.

:lol:

He is worse than Declan who he replaced. At least it was fun watching Declans cheeks wobble as he ramped.

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I just heard the same on R4

recession over in France and Germany....apparently one French Official was so delighted that they broke the news embargo.

I think the headlines should carry a health warning and perhaps a breakdown of the elements of GDP, so that all can see how much the governments have spent (borrowed) to get these figures into positive territory....

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He is worse than Declan who he replaced. At least it was fun watching Declans cheeks wobble as he ramped.

Technically there may be a recovery .. does QE money count towards GDP ? We just recorded 175 Bilion of wealth / profits on the BoE balance sheet .. that should compensate ?

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its up .3% in France.

course, no matter what the stimulus effect, they are now out of recession for the next 9 months or so.

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Guest KingCharles1st

I woke up this morning and guess what-

- ****** ME- I'm out of reccession!!!

Well done those guys

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Well I'm not surprised Germany is no longer shrinking. It has been known for a while that their manufacturing industry has now picked up a bit, and there is new demand from China and elsewhere in the developing world for many of their goods. As I have said before, the German economy is far more robust than that of the UK.

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Well I'm not surprised Germany is no longer shrinking. It has been known for a while that their manufacturing industry has now picked up a bit, and there is new demand from China and elsewhere in the developing world for many of their goods. As I have said before, the German economy is far more robust than that of the UK.

course...its what government spending does...it creates more waste....course, all that stimulus is spent somewhere.....I read somewhere here that the CHinese have now spent all their stimulus....that shipping rates are falling again .....what happens then?

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Never mind, there's always The Onion to fall back on for your source of 'real' economic news if the leading press doesn't report the FACTS.

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course...its what government spending does...it creates more waste....course, all that stimulus is spent somewhere.....I read somewhere here that the CHinese have now spent all their stimulus....that shipping rates are falling again .....what happens then?

China which really does control it's banks has been forcing them to loan money everywhere, I think they have even managed to engineer another property boom there.

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course...its what government spending does...it creates more waste....course, all that stimulus is spent somewhere.....I read somewhere here that the CHinese have now spent all their stimulus....that shipping rates are falling again .....what happens then?

Well that is a good question, but Germany have been in a good position to hoover some of that up. Time will tell, but the Chinese economoy would probably still have grown without stimulus, just not as much, and will probably continue to do so. If other countries India and so forth do, then Germany can still sell its goods. Don't forget they manufacture lots of heavy machinery for power generation, trains etc, which will be needed for infrastructure pojects. India recently commited to a 10 year infrastructure improvement plan. Lots of this expenditure will feed back to Germany.

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Well that is a good question, but Germany have been in a good position to hoover some of that up. Time will tell, but the Chinese economoy would probably still have grown without stimulus, just not as much, and will probably continue to do so. If other countries India and so forth do, then Germany can still sell its goods. Don't forget they manufacture lots of heavy machinery for power generation, trains etc, which will be needed for infrastructure pojects. India recently commited to a 10 year infrastructure improvement plan. Lots of this expenditure will feed back to Germany.

Analyst on R4 just explained the "unexpected" nature of the results.

The market receives information about INDUSTRY...it doesnt get advanced info on other things (Government spending)

he went on to say the German economy in particular benefitted from NEW CAR SALES that were boosted by the "cash for clunkers" scheme.

so...there you have it...taxpayers are now paying for the growth...industry is still weak.

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Well that is a good question, but Germany have been in a good position to hoover some of that up. Time will tell, but the Chinese economoy would probably still have grown without stimulus, just not as much, and will probably continue to do so. If other countries India and so forth do, then Germany can still sell its goods. Don't forget they manufacture lots of heavy machinery for power generation, trains etc, which will be needed for infrastructure pojects. India recently commited to a 10 year infrastructure improvement plan. Lots of this expenditure will feed back to Germany.

and we'll supply the money.....oh no, wait...its government spending...still we will need to convert rupees and bart and rimnimbies into euros.....the post office will be busy!

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course...its what government spending does...it creates more waste....course, all that stimulus is spent somewhere.....I read somewhere here that the CHinese have now spent all their stimulus....that shipping rates are falling again .....what happens then?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a0BMpYTufWpM

or

http://www.wikinvest.com/wikinvest/api.php...&comments=0

While the market is busy rallying on backward-looking news, few seem to have noticed that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) appears to again be rolling over. The BDI measures shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes and is a solid indicator of what is actually and currently happening in the global economy.

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So the increased public debt isn't counted against growth but the economic activity it stimulates does count towards growth? Is that right?

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Whilst RECESSION WILL BE THE WORST IN MODERN HISTORY BOE CONFIRMS

The economy will take longer to recover from this recession than it did in previous economic slumps and it will take “several years†before banks are lending normally to households and businesses, Mr King said. .......

The Bank said that it expected the economy to contract by an annual rate of 5.5 per cent at its lowest point this year – an even deeper dive than experienced in the 1930s – let alone any of the other postwar recessions. .....

.....But he indicated that the financial crisis had been of a scale that rivalled anything previously witnessed in history. “We’ve been through an extraordinary financial crisis,†he said.

“One doesn’t need to ask questions about 'the worst since when’ since it may be hard to find any period in which it was actually worse.†Mr King added: “ What we have to do is to recognise that the banking sector is still in a very bad way. It will take several years for it to repair its balance sheets, to get back to the point when it will be weaned off very large amounts of public support and in a position again to lend normally.â€

I have never heard anything sound so over!!! Just not the recession!! ;)

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Analyst on R4 just explained the "unexpected" nature of the results.

The market receives information about INDUSTRY...it doesnt get advanced info on other things (Government spending)

he went on to say the German economy in particular benefitted from NEW CAR SALES that were boosted by the "cash for clunkers" scheme.

so...there you have it...taxpayers are now paying for the growth...industry is still weak.

I understand the cash for clunkers in the US has alone added 2% to the GDP. The scheme was limited which created a heard mentality, they have just extended it and the take up is tailing off rapidly. They have just borrow 2% of the GDP from the future.

Also somthing that has not been discussed in a while but clearly is another fiddle factor that helps you to create better GDP figures is the use of GDP deflators that take into account the inflation figures (which since the 90's were changed to deliberately understate inflation). In the boom time this made GDP seem more positive, in the bust time it is making GDP seem less negative.

The GDP figures are just another example of the "sophistication" in managing them to paint a better than real picture of the economy, in effect another way of lying to the market like the countless other. The market will have it's day though.

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