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The Current Thinking Of Hpc Members

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when I joined HPC three years ago the mood on here was completely different, there was a real air of expectation that a 'correction' was inevitable. what seperated the bulls and the bears was the size of the correction.

now the feeling is the moment has definately passed, the 'crash' has happened. Two years down the road from the start of the credit crunch the doomsday scenario of five million unemployed and house prices at 1992 levels simply hasn't happened.

unemployment figures were never going to be good this quarter, they will be the last economic indicator to turn round, elsewhere there are definate signs of recovery that simply were not there six months ago.

Totally, The crash would of been 40-50% IF the govt let it happen. Alas, they didnt. The stood up and were counted by cutting rates to near zero and borrowed money to prop up the economy. This money will be paid back by the way, quicker than you think.

They just dont get it, the crash is OVER! You've had your low, it was in Feb.

The mood now is "Ohhh wait until"..... this that and the other happens.

Sorry guys, you missed the boat and if you dont earn enough to get a place now hard luck - you should of tried harder at skool.

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'cockspanner' date='Aug 12 2009, 09:35 PM' post='2074776']

Totally, The crash would of been 40-50% IF the govt let it happen. Alas, they didnt. The stood up and were counted by cutting rates to near zero and borrowed money to prop up the economy. This money will be paid back by the way, quicker than you think.

They just dont get it, the crash is OVER! You've had your low, it was in Feb.

The mood now is "Ohhh wait until"..... this that and the other happens.

Sorry guys, you missed the boat and if you dont earn enough to get a place now hard luck - you should of tried harder at skool.

A lot of boats and bus's around when comes to you bulls-h1tters.

I look forward to missing the next 5 as unemployment will be well over the 5 million mark and all those boats and bus's will be flooding onto the 'market'.

There is no money? Catch my drift spanner-head?

Edited by Chest Rockwell

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Unemployment is now halfway to 5 million...will be even closer by the end of this year!

House prices only need another 25% to fall, by 2011 we'll see that no probs!

There is no recovery, if they were then why is the BoE keeping rates down and printing more money?

This has a long way to go yet and the more they f*ck around with the economy the more painful it will become in the long run! With all the bank bailouts, govt borrowing and money printing the recovery has now been delayed for another 2 years at least!

In fact the recovery you will eventually see will not be the one you hope for. It'll be a sad and sick country that crawls along, a country that has zero to offer the rest of the world! A country in debt with a bankrupt population!

There is no sign of economic turnaround! Fudged Haliwide figures do not demonstrate a turnaround!

In other words its 2.5m. Why didnt you say its 1/4 of the way to 10m. It sounds more dramatic. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Its always the last step of a recession.

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In other words its 2.5m. Why didnt you say its 1/4 of the way to 10m. It sounds more dramatic. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Its always the last step of a recession.

Another troll........

Lagging it may be but it's still rising and predicted to rise further.

Bubbles are lags to burts in bubbles.

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'cockspanner' [/b]date='Aug 12 2009, 09:41 PM' post='2074792']

In other words its 2.5m. Why didnt you say its 1/4 of the way to 10m. It sounds more dramatic. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Its always the last step of a recession.

True mctwatish style!

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Ive been lurking for a while -I just got sick of reading the cr@p getting posted on here and had to get involved.
Get a life mate - and a house, if you can afford one.
Sorry guys, you missed the boat and if you dont earn enough to get a place now hard luck - you should of tried harder at skool.

Thanks for all your constructive input. You've really lifted the debate. Keep up the good work. With such persuasive arguments, us bears will be turning left, right and centre.

Why are so many bulls also complete ars*holes?

Edited by sdc395

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Hi All,

Long time since I posted.

Just a quick poll to see what the current thinking of the HPC community is.

I have voted for waiting for further reductions...... once we get to winter I think the current positive thinking will fade away and reality will set in.

ditto ! all doom and gloom on news tonight more unemployment , companies going bump, b.o.e and govt already putting excuses in place so they can say we already warned you, councils already short of cash and preparing for cuts

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indeed, quite bearish news tonight at 10.

Just saw them trying to push a U shaped recession graph though... :lol:

I remember before I was banned from MSE (for telling a bull to f*ck off), the day/evening Lehmans crashed! None of the bulls and trolls were to be found! For a whole day they vanished????

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Totally, The crash would of been 40-50% IF the govt let it happen. Alas, they didnt. The stood up and were counted by cutting rates to near zero and borrowed money to prop up the economy. This money will be paid back by the way, quicker than you think.

They just dont get it, the crash is OVER! You've had your low, it was in Feb.

The mood now is "Ohhh wait until"..... this that and the other happens.

Sorry guys, you missed the boat and if you dont earn enough to get a place now hard luck - you should of tried harder at skool.

Ive been lurking for a while -I just got sick of reading the cr@p getting posted on here and had to get involved.

What a knob jockey. I love the trolls who make the assumption that HPCers are all broke needing house prices to fall drastically to be able to afford to buy anything at all. I'm waiting for better value. Why buy at the top of a bubble when the bottom is only a few years away?

As for goading people for not being able to buy a house, get to frak. They'll probably be able to afford yours at auction in a year or two!

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now the feeling is the moment has definately passed, the 'crash' has happened.

The feeling is just media hype. Whenever there is terrible news, such as unemployment rising, the BBC in particular are quick to say that we are at the bottom and green shoots are supposedly occuring all the time. Clue: they're not. Houses cannot continue to be unaffordable, it's a simple mathematical fact.

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You forgot the option : Will not buy again in the UK as house prices are and always will be a rip off, I'm off to Italy :rolleyes:

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I'm waiting for better value. Why buy at the top of a bubble when the bottom is only a few years away?

That's the problem with anyone thinking prices go more than another 15-20% down, there are too many people "waiting for better value, and too many of them will pile in and buy. Just look at the "dead cat bounce" we've just had. How much bigger would it be if we went down another 20%? At some point the Gov't will succeed in throwing around enough cheap money until the endless rises resume.

As for goading people for not being able to buy a house, get to frak. They'll probably be able to afford yours at auction in a year or two!

No better than the "trolls" some of you guys. At least try and be classy.

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Right... so we should buy now and hope prices then crash to create a super bounce?

Do whatever you like, I'm just trying to give people an idea that expecting 30-40-50-60% falls is unrealistic.

No asset price falls that much unless it is discovered to be inherently worthless.

I'm not saying prices won't fall, I believe risk assets can and will fall from their recent elevated "bounce" highs. Maybe to Feb/Mar lows, maybe further, maybe not quite as far. Play that how you like, I'm not here to do your work for you.

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when I joined HPC three years ago the mood on here was completely different, there was a real air of expectation that a 'correction' was inevitable. what seperated the bulls and the bears was the size of the correction.

now the feeling is the moment is definately upon us, the 'crash' has begun. Two years down the road from the start of the credit crunch the doomsday scenario of five million unemployed and house prices at 1992 levels simply hasn't happened yet.

unemployment figures were never going to be good this quarter, they will be the last economic indicator to turn round, elsewhere there are definate signs of bailout money that simply were not there six months ago.

Fixed that for you

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Guest KingCharles1st
Do whatever you like, I'm just trying to give people an idea that expecting 30-40-50-60% falls is unrealistic.

No asset price falls that much unless it is discovered to be inherently worthless.

I'm not saying prices won't fall, I believe risk assets can and will fall from their recent elevated "bounce" highs. Maybe to Feb/Mar lows, maybe further, maybe not quite as far. Play that how you like, I'm not here to do your work for you.

There is as yet no solution with regard to kick-starting the FTB market- WITHOUT drastically dropping prices OR Liar Loans.

until that little problem is sorted out- it ain't sorted out

You know, I know, we all know, that UK housing is waaay overpriced. . There is no sensible reason why anyone should be investing in UK Property right now unless they already have such considerable cash, investments and assets that it makes little odds to them.

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