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Ted

The Current Thinking Of Hpc Members

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Hi All,

Long time since I posted.

Just a quick poll to see what the current thinking of the HPC community is.

I have voted for waiting for further reductions...... once we get to winter I think the current positive thinking will fade away and reality will set in.

Edited by Ted

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Hi All,

Long time since I posted.

Just a quick poll to see what the current thinking of the HPC community is.

I have voted for waiting for further reductions...... once we get to winter I think the current positive thinking will fade away and reality will set in.

Hmm... I wonder what the outcome will be?

Tin foil at the ready!

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Hmm... I wonder what the outcome will be?

Tin foil at the ready!

No idea, if you read many of the threads right now, it sounds like many are expecting a rise in prices.

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On the day the unemployment figures have been released, and they're pretty bad, I think the ONLY logical conclusion is that prices will fall further. The economy is in such a mess.

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Hi All,

Long time since I posted.

Just a quick poll to see what the current thinking of the HPC community is.

Where's the option for xcwhatever is a irritating trolling t***? That's my current thinking.

Otherwise a long way down still to go.

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Guest KingCharles1st

Recovereh- based upon what

Personal finances looking good- based upon what

Liar loan Lending increasing dramatically- based upon what

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when I joined HPC three years ago the mood on here was completely different, there was a real air of expectation that a 'correction' was inevitable. what seperated the bulls and the bears was the size of the correction.

now the feeling is the moment has definately passed, the 'crash' has happened. Two years down the road from the start of the credit crunch the doomsday scenario of five million unemployed and house prices at 1992 levels simply hasn't happened.

unemployment figures were never going to be good this quarter, they will be the last economic indicator to turn round, elsewhere there are definate signs of recovery that simply were not there six months ago.

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Where's the option for xcwhatever is a irritating trolling t***? That's my current thinking.

Otherwise a long way down still to go.

Agreed YG, just chuck him/her on ignore it makes life on here more bearable. The fact that I have him on ignore and not Sibley speaks volumes.

Anyway, back to the poll; I think/hope we have still a way to go yet. Houseprices are - despite the modest falls to date - still unaffordable for FTBs.

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Agreed YG, just chuck him/her on ignore it makes life on here more bearable...

And miss all the fun?

I do think we are paying the price for banning, sorry, moderating the more sensible bulls though. Now we are left with the crud.

Back to the poll: More nominal falls to come. How much? I don't know, but real prices will fall another quarter or thereabouts, so it all depends how much inflation we get.

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Guest KingCharles1st
when I joined HPC three years ago the mood on here was completely different, there was a real air of expectation that a 'correction' was inevitable. what seperated the bulls and the bears was the size of the correction.

now the feeling is the moment has definately passed, the 'crash' has happened. Two years down the road from the start of the credit crunch the doomsday scenario of five million unemployed and house prices at 1992 levels simply hasn't happened.

unemployment figures were never going to be good this quarter, they will be the last economic indicator to turn round, elsewhere there are definate signs of recovery that simply were not there six months ago.

We didn't even know what QE was in '92, or that it could actually be done.

If we cannot have a small positive blip in June July and August- then when can we have one?

So lets get this right- 1 bed flat =100K if you're lucky in the S.E.

so that's 6 x most people's (who would be in that typical situation) salary.

and then they need to work for 3 years to get a deposit.

Riiittttte...

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when I joined HPC three years ago the mood on here was completely different, there was a real air of expectation that a 'correction' was inevitable. what seperated the bulls and the bears was the size of the correction.

now the feeling is the moment has definately passed, the 'crash' has happened. Two years down the road from the start of the credit crunch the doomsday scenario of five million unemployed and house prices at 1992 levels simply hasn't happened.

unemployment figures were never going to be good this quarter, they will be the last economic indicator to turn round, elsewhere there are definate signs of recovery that simply were not there six months ago.

printing (advertising, not money) will be the first indicator to turn around, and that has not happened yet as far as I can see (my wife an ex printer and still talks to a lot of old friends)

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We didn't even know what QE was in '92, or that it could actually be done.

If we cannot have a small positive blip in June July and August- then when can we have one?

So lets get this right- 1 bed flat =100K if you're lucky in the S.E.

so that's 6 x most people's (who would be in that typical situation) salary.

and then they need to work for 3 years to get a deposit.

Riiittttte...

Hang on a sec though. if you're going to use the South East as a guide price surely you should use the average wage for a first time buying in the South East also.

Now, I don't know what that might be but I can't believe it averages out at £16k. Maybe it does?! Anyone?

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As the others don't apply ( I bought most recently in q1 2008) I ticked waiting for further reductions as I think thats most likely.

I suppose the problem for many STR's and waiting to buy is that the crash so far doesn't seem to have been a sharp and relatively short (2 year) correction with then 3 or 4 years of gentle reductions/flatness.... 2 years in and the difference between 2007 is small but financing is more difficult... in some ways prices are even more unattainable now than they were in 2007.... so it looks like those hoping for say 2 years until most of the reductions happened wil now have to wait more like 4 minimum , although I think the bottom may not appear for perhaps even longer.

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Waiting on further falls - BIG ones.

This little splurge of BS media hype regarding recovery is b0ll0x. There are no 'sound foundations', no 'green shoots', no 'hope'.

Any upward movement in figures is an illusory glitch caused by the ridiculous printing of money that is quantitive easing. Once they've run out of ink house prices will be heading down with increased vigour. It'll be helped along by the usual drop off in sales during the winter months. It'll be interesting to see how the press try and spin the story when xmas high street sales plummet to levels seen before father christmas was invented and the FTSE100 dips below 3000.

I'm happy renting a gorgeous place that I could never afford the mortgage for, saving dosh and waiting for affordability to return to sane levels.

Sit tight folks!

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Guest KingCharles1st
Hang on a sec though. if you're going to use the South East as a guide price surely you should use the average wage for a first time buying in the South East also.

Now, I don't know what that might be but I can't believe it averages out at £16k. Maybe it does?! Anyone?

You are forgetting about the S.E. "lost" population.

Local paper shit jobs- on average 12-14K

"proper jobs" start rates 16-18K. But you are going to need an agencies help to track one down.

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The "average" wage in GB is about £25,000, this is slewed bypeople like Financial Planner getting megabucks, so take a couple of grand off nationally, but I figure you can put that back for the SE so call it £25,000 so a 1 bed flat at £100,000 is 4 times average wage, Oh and the build cost is about £40,000 plus land, go figure

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Hang on a sec though. if you're going to use the South East as a guide price surely you should use the average wage for a first time buying in the South East also.

Now, I don't know what that might be but I can't believe it averages out at £16k. Maybe it does?! Anyone?

average salary in S.E. is around £25k, think the point he was making is that the type of buyer interested in a one bed flat would probably be earning around £16k, but should someone on well below average wages expect to by buying?

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Guest KingCharles1st
The "average" wage in GB is about £25,000, this is slewed bypeople like Financial Planner getting megabucks, so take a couple of grand off nationally, but I figure you can put that back for the SE so call it £25,000 so a 1 bed flat at £100,000 is 4 times average wage, Oh and the build cost is about £40,000 plus land, go figure

Someone earning 25K is NOT going to want to live in a one bedroom flat- they are reserved for the Untermensch

They will want a 2 bed house or chic apartment- thats 200K kerr-chinng and hey- were back to 6 x and a 50K depo

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'I AM STUPID' date='Aug 12 2009, 01:05 PM' post='2073577']

when I joined HPC three years ago the mood on here was completely different, there was a real air of expectation that a 'correction' was inevitable. what seperated the bulls and the bears was the size of the correction.

now the feeling is the moment has definately passed, the 'crash' has happened. Two years down the road from the start of the credit crunch the doomsday scenario of five million unemployed and house prices at 1992 levels simply hasn't happened.

unemployment figures were never going to be good this quarter, they will be the last economic indicator to turn round, elsewhere there are definate signs of recovery that simply were not there six months ago.

Unemployment is now halfway to 5 million...will be even closer by the end of this year!

House prices only need another 25% to fall, by 2011 we'll see that no probs!

There is no recovery, if they were then why is the BoE keeping rates down and printing more money?

This has a long way to go yet and the more they f*ck around with the economy the more painful it will become in the long run! With all the bank bailouts, govt borrowing and money printing the recovery has now been delayed for another 2 years at least!

In fact the recovery you will eventually see will not be the one you hope for. It'll be a sad and sick country that crawls along, a country that has zero to offer the rest of the world! A country in debt with a bankrupt population!

There is no sign of economic turnaround! Fudged Haliwide figures do not demonstrate a turnaround!

Edited by Chest Rockwell

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Need more detail in the options.

I think prices will continue to drop/stagnate slowly. That doesn't mean I wouldn't buy though obviously the ideal is to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the top but it wouldn't be the end of the world if you bought somewhere on the way down and sold somewhere on the way up. I'm not greedy ;)!

Edited by Orbital

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Anyway, back to the poll; I think/hope we have still a way to go yet. Houseprices are - despite the modest falls to date - still unaffordable for FTBs.

...Plus anyone wishing to upsize, move to a more expensive area or buy a second home.....so that just about rules almost all of the market out

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average salary in S.E. is around £25k, think the point he was making is that the type of buyer interested in a one bed flat would probably be earning around £16k, but should someone on well below average wages expect to by buying?

I think the average salary figure of £25,000 is a bit misleading since it includes part time workers.

Mean male full time salaries would seem to be a better guide at about £36,000.

On £36,000 you'd struggle to find even a 1 bed flat in a reasonable (not exceptional) area. 3 bed houses start at £200,000 but anything even 1/2 decent is going to be closer to £300,000.

Anything "desirable" meaning larger rooms and a bit of garden as well is going to be £600,000+ and can rapidly go past £1,000,000. Currently these tend to be occupied by "empty nesters" who could never have afforded them at today's prices.

So realistically, either the avearge south east wage is £75,000 or prices still have a long way to fall.

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