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House Price Crash Forum
Timm

Lost Decade Of Uk Hpi

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Looking at the Halifax historical data, I see prices are currently at the level they were five years ago. I wonder what the next 2.5 years will bring?

Jun 2004 159,058

Jul. 2004 160,786

Aug2004 159,799

Jul. 2009 159,623

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And ignore the news of 'forced gazundering' in the meanwhile?

A new gazundering source by EAs own admission

Right now, being gazumped only increases the chances of the chain failing. So what will have to change to make real gazumping (within chains that actually complete) occur? Ah yes, the bank's valuations of properties will have to change. Ah yes, so the banks will have to magically decide that it is all over ...?

The best stance a Property Bull can have on the probability of this: that the banks stop troughing in the 'now is a good time to present bad news/QE trough. Unlikely, at best. And the banks are *still* (or are starting to?) increase the real actual rates they charge ... perhaps because they see the inflation coming.

I suppose Sibley presents one way to keep your alcohol 'units per week' measures at or near zero ...? :)

Sorry, Sibley, but I am not going to think I have more information and the ability to analyse a manipulated market better than the banker (pigs?) ... and I don't think you should either.

Aidanapword

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
I'd like to see average price settle at £175,000.

I think that's fair to everybody.

It won't stay low like it is now for long. Rest of this year will stay same then bit of rise next year. All the decent stock is sitting tight. When average hits above you'll see nice places for sale again.

It's going to be so funny when the newspapers start reporting gazumping again. I'll break out the beers for you all.

It's my dream and I'm staying on here until I see loads of 'I got gazumped' posts. :lol:

£70k average without significant nominal salary increases.

My estimate is based on historical lending norms, whereas yours is based on what?

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£70k average without significant nominal salary increases.

My estimate is based on historical lending norms, whereas yours is based on what?

70K would be good

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Of course to a degree most ignore that house prices will of course rise over time... lets say we get back to 2007 in 2017/8 (which wouldn't be an overly excessive guess).... then really its a discussion about what happens in between..... you could argue the lost decade is already built in on that basis.

But as we are all guessing out of my two favored option of flatness and 35% I am going to opt for30-35%.. so over the next 2.5 years that would mean another 16% plus taking us to the 30% level. that would probably mean 2002 in 2011/12 which would still be a lost decade.

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