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Doom Lord

The Boom Is Not Back

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There has been a lot of Bullish news recently but lets just put this into perspective:

When I was looking to buy a house in 2004 it took me six months to find a property to buy.

For those six months I phoned the estate agents every morning and made appointments to see available properties after work. By the time I had finished my working day 99% of the properties had sold!! The properties that were left had major problems which would not have been cost effective for a developer to remedy.

Cut to today: I have my eye on a beautiful property with land. It has been on the market for over a year. It's going no where.....fast.

There is no way we are any way near boom territory. This is a buyers market.

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I'd buy quick before the recovery takes hold and you get out bid.

Buy now before its too late and you regret it.

House prices will only rise due to inflation. But in real terms their value will continue to fall.

Last time we had a property crash it took nearly six years to bottom out. This time it was much worse. I don't think things will improve until at least 2012 -- and I see that as the positive outcome.

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There has been a lot of Bullish news recently but lets just put this into perspective:

When I was looking to buy a house in 2004 it took me six months to find a property to buy.

For those six months I phoned the estate agents every morning and made appointments to see available properties after work. By the time I had finished my working day 99% of the properties had sold!! The properties that were left had major problems which would not have been cost effective for a developer to remedy.

Cut to today: I have my eye on a beautiful property with land. It has been on the market for over a year. It's going no where.....fast.

There is no way we are any way near boom territory. This is a buyers market.

Oh that's settled that then. Quick tell the worlds top economists... *yawn*

In case it's passed you by house prices have in fact been going up.

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There has been a lot of Bullish news recently but lets just put this into perspective:

When I was looking to buy a house in 2004 it took me six months to find a property to buy.

For those six months I phoned the estate agents every morning and made appointments to see available properties after work. By the time I had finished my working day 99% of the properties had sold!! The properties that were left had major problems which would not have been cost effective for a developer to remedy.

Cut to today: I have my eye on a beautiful property with land. It has been on the market for over a year. It's going no where.....fast.

There is no way we are any way near boom territory. This is a buyers market.

We are no where near 2004 levels, very true. We are seeing signs of increased activity (the endlessly discussed 'dead cat bounce'), and it's pointless in denying this. You just end up looking like the bulls over the last two years, fingers in your ears shouting 'la la la, I can't hear you :lol:

But, and this is from a home owner who bought in 2008, we are going to see drops very soon.

Perhaps it's down to people with their fingers in their ears, perhaps it down to people getting scared by this wee upwards blip or perhaps it's simply because people have no fear of it all going t*t's up because they've read about IVA's or bancruptcy (on another site, you know the one!) and think they know it all. The fact is a fair amount of people are getting on this roller coaster after the first big dip, blissfully ignoring the next one on the track!

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

A boom now is about as likely as a fighting queue of ladies putting in sealed bids for a go on my old man.

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Guest Parry aka GOD
A boom now is about as likely as a fighting queue of ladies putting in sealed bids for a go on my old man.

A boom may not be back, but can you really see affordability for regular working people improving? I can't.

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A boom now is about as likely as a fighting queue of ladies putting in sealed bids for a go on my old man.

its not going to happen is it!

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A boom may not be back, but can you really see affordability for regular working people improving? I can't.

Seems that aim is not on the agenda. It's all about making us pay through the nose to keep the banks in profits forever.

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Oh that's settled that then. Quick tell the worlds top economists... *yawn*

In case it's passed you by house prices have in fact been going up.

And volumes continue to fall through the floor. And house prices went up AND down during the aftermath of the previous (far less exposed/explosive) bubble ... so what, exactly, is your point?

Talk about (and support with proof) improving fundamentals *and* improving sentiment at the same time and I might take what you have to say seriously.

The fundamentals mess of today makes the early 90s look like a walk in the park.

If the fundamentals were improving then LTV ratios would be increasing (and they can't because the fin sector has an informed view on the fundamentals). Sentiment is not improving (volumes are still below the levels they were at when house prices were falling last year) - even under the heaviest efforts of QE and ramping that the UK has ever seen. And this is the one time in the year when house prices have improved every time - with some statistically small exceptions (though the jury may be out on their statistical significance).

I hope you wake up from the cloud cuckoo land you sleep in before the ramping and ballooning ends.

Aidanapword

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Oh that's settled that then. Quick tell the worlds top economists... *yawn*

In case it's passed you by house prices have in fact been going up.

It hasn't passed me by and neither has the house i'm interested in which is still faling in value. In fact they knocked another £25,000 off of it this week. All I'm saying is that it's a buyers market and there is no need to rush into these things. Don't let the bulls tell you otherwise :P

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Guest Parry aka GOD
Seems that aim is not on the agenda. It's all about making us pay through the nose to keep the banks in profits forever.

This is my concern. It doesn't afeect me personally, I thought it did years ago, but then I left.

I think it is different this time. Quite evil in fact. I think the old multiples of 3x income are lost forever and affordability will resemble much poorer countries.

House prices may stay the same when priced in GBP, whilst they fall in all other currencies, whilst this causes consumer price inflation at a time when globalisation means wages and income levels in the UK are plummeting.

I really hope this does not happen. I hope all you folks get to buy a home at a sustainable, affordable price and have families and stable lives . . . I just feel that right now the tide is against you.

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Guest Daddy Bear
It hasn't passed me by and neither has the house i'm interested in which is still faling in value. In fact they knocked another £25,000 off of it this week. All I'm saying is that it's a buyers market and there is no need to rush into these things. Don't let the bulls tell you otherwise :P

So how far would it have to fall from peak before you'd buy it?

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Loans to homebuyers '23% higher'

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8194768.stm

House shortage 'props up prices'

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8194654.stm

Thanks Bateman.

Only: the first link you present is precisely the link I presented in a separate comment here. And that article, subtly, underlines the lack of sustainability in the current increases in prices if you just understand what you are reading. A longer, but more accurate article title would be:

Loans to homebuyers '23% higher' using unsustainable sources of funds

... so the cash-rich types who haven't done the research are getting themselves solidly suckered.

The second link you present is not about fundamentals at all. Neither, really, is it about sentiment ... unless you count sentiment to be 'less people than last year [during the crash] are chasing even less houses because they believe the hype' OR 'Sellers don't believe the hype but are stuck having to continue to hold out because the recovereh is too slow to bail them out' ...?

Aidanapword

Edited by Aidan Ap Word

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Guest Parry aka GOD
It is a buyers market at the moment. I'll grant you that.

The only problem you have is sellers are waiting until prices go up so your dream house isn't available to you. Not only isn't it available it will never be on the market cheap.

I wouldn't care if my investment property stays rented for the next 10 years. So what?

In the end I'll get what I want out of it.

Either I get top money or it stays like it is. Whats the problem?

Excuse me, but it's not about 'dream houses', it's about the reasonable affordability of the basic human need of shelter and a secure dwelling in which to raise families and retain as shelter for old age.

This basic concept underpins healthy functioning of a society. A basic concept destroyed by criminal financial practices and those who rode on the back of this beast.

It is now about greed, divisiveness and usury.

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It is a buyers market at the moment. I'll grant you that.

The only problem you have is sellers are waiting until prices go up so your dream house isn't available to you. Not only isn't it available it will never be on the market cheap.

I wouldn't care if my investment property stays rented for the next 10 years. So what?

In the end I'll get what I want out of it.

Either I get top money or it stays like it is. Whats the problem?

I am not denying that your stratergy wont work. However in my case it is my dream house and it is 30% of peak so that is good enough for me.

Regardless of these facts there is no way I am rushing in whilst the game is still far from over.

You know it's not always about getting a dream house - If you can get say 20% off peak on the average house then you would have saved you over £70,000 over the lifetime of a mortgage. Thats a lot of extra money that is then available to you and your family.

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Oh that's settled that then. Quick tell the worlds top economists... *yawn*

These would be the same people who were completely certain that house prices could not fall? Why do you put your faith in such people- if they were wrong then, why are you so sure they are right now?

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Oh that's settled that then. Quick tell the worlds top economists... *yawn*

In case it's passed you by house prices have in fact been going up.

Why don't you tell the world's top economists about the theory you put forward on the "FTSE100 to 3,000" thread?

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xcojo's new -0.8 is the new "more". If something goes down 2.4 percent and then goes down 0.8 percent it is actually going up because 0.8 is less than 2.4. You might say that the rate of decline has decreased. But xcojo says it's going up.

Alright, you're so clever and smug... answer me this:

I'm flying my plane level at 100ft and I really want to crash it into the floor because I'm an emo negative vibe merchant.

I push forward on the stick and drop 2.4ft.

Which way to I pull the stick to lose another 0.8ft? Forward or back?

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