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Turnbull2000

The Boom Is Back

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People I know seem to be piling in thanks to parental deposits, prices have been swinging upwards for months now, and that all important sentiment has semingly reverted back to the mania last witnessed during the bubble.

Will prices really start dropping again?

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People I know seem to be piling in thanks to parental deposits, prices have been swinging upwards for months now, and that all important sentiment has semingly reverted back to the mania last witnessed during the bubble.

Will prices really start dropping again?

Oh yes they will, what proportion of the population can afford to do this?

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People I know seem to be piling in thanks to parental deposits, prices have been swinging upwards for months now, and that all important sentiment has semingly reverted back to the mania last witnessed during the bubble.

Will prices really start dropping again?

No. There's a massive strangulation of supply coming. No houses have been built and nobody wants to sell theirs for less than they bought it.

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No. There's a massive strangulation of supply coming. No houses have been built and nobody wants to sell theirs for less than they bought it.

want doesn't lead a falling market, forced does.

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No. There's a massive strangulation of supply coming. No houses have been built and nobody wants to sell theirs for less than they bought it.

That's why a majority of transactions will be as a result of the three D's. They are all forced sales and the sellers will get what they are given. Guess what happens to average prices when forced sales form the majority of the dataset?

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No. There's a massive strangulation of supply coming. No houses have been built and nobody wants to sell theirs for less than they bought it.

My second-hand toothbrush is for sale at £100,000 and I won't take a penny less.

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People I know seem to be piling in thanks to parental deposits

I'd hate to think that these "parental deposits" were MEWed money... wouldn't you?

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My second-hand toothbrush is for sale at £100,000 and I won't take a penny less.

Still better value than some of the new build flats I've seen.

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Bulls, would you agree or disagree that a rally fuelled solely by loans from parents will be short-lived unless some other factor comes in to play to allow it to continue?

Also, would you agree or disagree that, assuming the money has been withdrawn from said parents' bank accounts, this is likely to make mortgage availability worse?

Edited by sdc395

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The parents are even more stupid than the bloody kids. :rolleyes:

Just light yourselves a big bonfire and throw all your life savings on it. That would be easier.

What deranged mind volunteer's for this??

(maybe all these parents were KLF fans) :unsure:

Edited by Wait & See

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Guest Parry aka GOD

I think there is a real chance house prices will continue to rise . . . relative to incomes that is. This is a symptom of a country that's becoming poor. People can't afford stuff. Including houses.

Out here a typical house of liveable condition is 1,000,000 Baht, but when you only earn 7000-15,000 a month as a family (and that's good) . . . see what I mean? Oh, this is without the effect of lending, very few get mortgages out here.

Also, with all this QE nonsense they could very well blow another asset bubble . . . priced in Sterling. House prices in the UK may only fall in terms of other currencies. Which they already did by 30%.

Horrible I know, but possible.

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No. There's a massive strangulation of supply coming. No houses have been built and nobody wants to sell theirs for less than they bought it.

Hilarious braindead post

Nobody WANTS to lose their JOB either, nobody WANTS to be REPOSESSED

FORCED SALES will drive prices down. Low IRs have delayed this a lot, as has the insane mentality in this country which leads some braindead parents to give their kids money to lose as a deposit. Can't last though, fundamentals are still awful.

Come back in 12 months see if you are right. :rolleyes:

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I think there is a real chance house prices will continue to rise . . . relative to incomes that is. This is a symptom of a country that's becoming poor. People can't afford stuff. Including houses.

Out here a typical house of liveable condition is 1,000,000 Baht, but when you only earn 7000-15,000 a month as a family (and that's good) . . . see what I mean? Oh, this is without the effect of lending, very few get mortgages out here.

Also, with all this QE nonsense they could very well blow another asset bubble . . . priced in Sterling. House prices in the UK may only fall in terms of other currencies. Which they already did by 30%.

Horrible I know, but possible.

House prices in Egypt are about 10-20 times a good wage - but you can't get credit. If a "good" wage is 20K+ in the UK and house prices are 160K, that's 8 times your wage. But you pay twice over because most people have mortgages. Hence we pay 16x a good wage in the UK. This highlights why credit has fuelled less and less GDP expansion over the last 40 years - it's designed to make you poorer. The UK is a third world country, just like the US and most of Europe.

Edited to say: The West just thinks it's rich. We're just as poor as everywhere else, and it's getting worse.

Edited by AvidFan

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The parents are even more stupid than the bloody kids. :rolleyes:

Just light yourselves a big bonfire and throw all your life savings on it. That would be easier.

What deranged mind volunteer's for this??

(maybe all these parents were KLF fans) :unsure:

Theyre UNjustified and ancient.

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No. There's a massive strangulation of supply coming. No houses have been built and nobody wants to sell theirs for less than they bought it.

Not true - the developers (and I mean the likes of Redrow and Barrat not some vile 'house improvement BTLer') have a huge stockpile that they will have to shift any day soon. It was the developers that started the last crash as they sell their stock at vastly reduced prices to cick start the market again.

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Guest Parry aka GOD
House prices in Egypt are about 10-20 times a good wage - but you can't get credit. If a "good" wage is 20K+ in the UK and house prices are 160K, that's 8 times your wage. But you pay twice over because most people have mortgages. Hence we pay 16x a good wage in the UK. This highlights why credit has fuelled less and less GDP expansion over the last 40 years - it's designed to make you poorer. The UK is a third world country, just like the US and most of Europe.

Edited to say: The West just thinks it's rich. We're just as poor as everywhere else, and it's getting worse.

Yes.

This is the truth.

Wealth was in their heads. Still is.

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I think there is a real chance house prices will continue to rise . . . relative to incomes that is. This is a symptom of a country that's becoming poor. People can't afford stuff. Including houses.

Out here a typical house of liveable condition is 1,000,000 Baht, but when you only earn 7000-15,000 a month as a family (and that's good) . . . see what I mean? Oh, this is without the effect of lending, very few get mortgages out here.

Also, with all this QE nonsense they could very well blow another asset bubble . . . priced in Sterling. House prices in the UK may only fall in terms of other currencies. Which they already did by 30%.

Horrible I know, but possible.

So house 1mill bhat average salary 132K bhat house price to wage ration 7.57. A crash is a must in thai property based on those ratios.

If I was you Mr Parry I would start www.thaibeachhutcrash.com as quick as posible. THe owners of HPC.co.uk are coining it in.

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Guest Parry aka GOD
So house 1mill bhat average salary 132K bhat house price to wage ration 7.57. A crash is a must in thai property based on those ratios.

If I was you Mr Parry I would start www.thaibeachhutcrash.com as quick as posible. THe owners of HPC.co.uk are coining it in.

Well that is in the offing, certainly happening.

But house prices will still rise relative to wages. Can't see anything but serious wage deflation/unemployment in the UK. Still no one can buy one.

Crazy situation.

Only thing that could fix this really is if someone builds a fvckin' time machine.

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Guest Parry aka GOD
Today, apparently housing derivatives have completely tuned around and the hot money is now for 2010 to end YoY up. 2009 forecast to end 1% down.

Reuters

My belief, which I stated here a while back was that QE was going to be used to maintain houses prices - in GBP - Pounds Sterling. Forget any other measure, doesn't matter.

Apart from a few wars, it's all this government lives for. Friggin' house prices!

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The West just thinks it's rich. We're just as poor as everywhere else, and it's getting worse.

The West is plenty rich and will remain so. Technology has given us highly efficient farming and manufacturing industries which are able to supply most people's basic needs on the efforts of just a small fraction of the labour force. We have a large and good quality housing stock as well as paved roads, reliable water and power supplies, and universal education and healthcare. Although our ability to buy worthless crap on credit is certainly going to fall, these basic facts are not about to disappear.

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