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ralphmalph

It Is The Funniest Recession I Have Lived Through

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6790797.ece

We apparently have mass layoffs, every worker worried about thier job, savings rates as a percentage of income increasing, world trade crashing, reduction in the availability of credit, people struggling to pay thier mortgages and yet:

Retail Sales in July 09 are 3.6% higher than this time last year!

and they were up YoY in June as well.

This is the wierdest recession I have lived through and it is the third. In the 80's when we had a drop in GDP of half what we have seen over the past 9 months the high street was decimated, boarded up shops everywhere, poundlands galore.

I know that people will post just wait the real recession has not started yet, but that is missing the point if retail sales keep growing and do not fall of a cliff there will be no more recession.

Also look at the BAA traffic figures for July up .9% from last year and the best since July2006 and this is with MDoomed taxing the hell out of the traveller and resturanters on HPC.co.uk saying there is a large stay at home holidaymaker as well.

Also read the HPC thread of what is the latest gadget you have bought, lots of discrestionary wonga being spent by people that think the future is massive deflation.

Seems like the average brit to me has a lot of spare discresionary income to spend at the moment.

Recessions are usually viscious circles, they just get worse and worse and worse until people despair.

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6790797.ece

We apparently have mass layoffs, every worker worried about thier job, savings rates as a percentage of income increasing, world trade crashing, reduction in the availability of credit, people struggling to pay thier mortgages and yet:

Retail Sales in July 09 are 3.6% higher than this time last year!

Think it's simply that interest rates are massively low, lots of people will see this as extra money and spend rather than save.

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6790797.ece

We apparently have mass layoffs, every worker worried about thier job, savings rates as a percentage of income increasing, world trade crashing, reduction in the availability of credit, people struggling to pay thier mortgages and yet:

Retail Sales in July 09 are 3.6% higher than this time last year!

and they were up YoY in June as well.

If sales are so bouyant, why are shops shutting in almost every High Street in the UK, and if not remaining empty, being replaced with charity shops or cheapo/trash outfits?

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6790797.ece

We apparently have mass layoffs, every worker worried about thier job, savings rates as a percentage of income increasing, world trade crashing, reduction in the availability of credit, people struggling to pay thier mortgages and yet:

Retail Sales in July 09 are 3.6% higher than this time last year!

and they were up YoY in June as well.

This is the wierdest recession I have lived through and it is the third. In the 80's when we had a drop in GDP of half what we have seen over the past 9 months the high street was decimated, boarded up shops everywhere, poundlands galore.

I know that people will post just wait the real recession has not started yet, but that is missing the point if retail sales keep growing and do not fall of a cliff there will be no more recession.

Also look at the BAA traffic figures for July up .9% from last year and the best since July2006 and this is with MDoomed taxing the hell out of the traveller and resturanters on HPC.co.uk saying there is a large stay at home holidaymaker as well.

Also read the HPC thread of what is the latest gadget you have bought, lots of discrestionary wonga being spent by people that think the future is massive deflation.

Seems like the average brit to me has a lot of spare discresionary income to spend at the moment.

Recessions are usually viscious circles, they just get worse and worse and worse until people despair.

Did you ever stop to think that you could simply be wrong in your opinion that we're on the eve of destruction?

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If sales are so bouyant, why are shops shutting in almost every High Street in the UK, and if not remaining empty, being replaced with charity shops or cheapo/trash outfits?

Online sales up 20% YoY, detailed in the report. Also the supermarkets are gaining share over the high street, free parking, cheaper, sell clothes, eletronic items. They are one stop shops now.

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course, this is like for like sales.

my personal food parcel went up 6.3%

that means the like for like should have risen 6.3% JUST TO STAND STILL.

No, it was 1.8%.

looks more like a 4% drop in volumes, and a corresponding price increase....while profits remain subdued.

depends on how they measure it all.

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Think it's simply that interest rates are massively low, lots of people will see this as extra money and spend rather than save.

Exactly. The recession and HPC were over when rates went to near 0%.

My IOM has fallen from £1050 a month to just £150 ;)

Rates are not going up anytime soon. And when they eventually do, they wont go up by much as people are now dependant on the lower rates. So in future only a small increase in rates will cause the demand destruction effects that are needed to tame any inflation.

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Recessions tend to hit different people in a disproportionate way.

If you're in a reasonably secure job you wonder what all the fuss is about, perhaps even benefit from falling prices.

If you get made redundant you can be 100% in the sh1t and it can seem like the end of the world.

In the recession or the early 1980's I met people from the South East who didn't directly know anyone who was unemployed and found it hard to accept that not just whole towns but entire regions were being ripped apart by bad economic conditions.

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If thats the monetary value, how do we know it isn't just price inflation?

It does not matter. More money as a total was spent. They may have got less goods, but that is immaterial the money is in the hands of the consumer to spend and seemingly spend freely.

In tough times instead of people spending 100 quid a shop they will spend 90.

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Exactly. The recession and HPC were over when rates went to near 0%.

My IOM has fallen from £1050 a month to just £150 ;)

Rates are not going up anytime soon. And when they eventually do, they wont go up by much as people are now dependant on the lower rates. So in future only a small increase in rates will cause the demand destruction effects that are needed to tame any inflation.

What if China want higher rates of return on their lending to us?

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My IOM has fallen from £1050 a month to just £150 ;)

What are you smoking to feel so good :blink: ?

Edit: I hope you are saving the difference to pay the debt back.

Edited by Meerkat

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It does not matter. More money as a total was spent. They may have got less goods, but that is immaterial the money is in the hands of the consumer to spend and seemingly spend freely.

In tough times instead of people spending 100 quid a shop they will spend 90.

Not if it is essential goods at a supermarket, such as food and clothing.

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Exactly. The recession and HPC were over when rates went to near 0%.

My IOM has fallen from £1050 a month to just £150 ;)

Rates are not going up anytime soon. And when they eventually do, they wont go up by much as people are now dependant on the lower rates. So in future only a small increase in rates will cause the demand destruction effects that are needed to tame any inflation.

thanks. your IOM is costing the rest of us in bailouts and tax rises.

spend it while you can.

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Not if it is essential goods at a supermarket, such as food and clothing.

indeed, I hear retail sales were up 5000% in Zimbabwe. must be good for the recovereh.

real world would be a good lesson for some posters.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Exactly. The recession and HPC were over when rates went to near 0%.

My IOM has fallen from £1050 a month to just £150 ;)

Rates are not going up anytime soon. And when they eventually do, they wont go up by much as people are now dependant on the lower rates. So in future only a small increase in rates will cause the demand destruction effects that are needed to tame any inflation.

Interest only mortgage.

Now I see.

I suppose the strategy to go bankrupt and homeless around retirement isn't a bad one.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6790797.ece

We apparently have mass layoffs, every worker worried about thier job, savings rates as a percentage of income increasing, world trade crashing, reduction in the availability of credit, people struggling to pay thier mortgages and yet:

Retail Sales in July 09 are 3.6% higher than this time last year!

and they were up YoY in June as well.

This is the wierdest recession I have lived through and it is the third. In the 80's when we had a drop in GDP of half what we have seen over the past 9 months the high street was decimated, boarded up shops everywhere, poundlands galore.

I know that people will post just wait the real recession has not started yet, but that is missing the point if retail sales keep growing and do not fall of a cliff there will be no more recession.

Also look at the BAA traffic figures for July up .9% from last year and the best since July2006 and this is with MDoomed taxing the hell out of the traveller and resturanters on HPC.co.uk saying there is a large stay at home holidaymaker as well.

Also read the HPC thread of what is the latest gadget you have bought, lots of discrestionary wonga being spent by people that think the future is massive deflation.

Seems like the average brit to me has a lot of spare discresionary income to spend at the moment.

Recessions are usually viscious circles, they just get worse and worse and worse until people despair.

Retail sales figures include food and are based on value I believe

So as food prices have been going up at 5-10% this has been adding to the value of retail sales

Also the holiday season and tourism at this time of year must increase retail sales, particularly since the pound is low against the Euro.

On top of that population is increasing which also increases retail sales as well as GDP.

But if population goes up 5% and GDP only goes up say 4% then everyone is actually worse off.

My feeling is that a big chunk of GDP growth under Nu Labour has been down to the increase in population, not to actual growth in real economic output.

No doubt some dumbass will now accuse me of talking utter Shite 'again' without bothering to explain why.

Oh and these are just my 'thoughts' not an economics degree disertation

:blink:

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Retail sales figures include food and are based on value I believe

So as food prices have been going up at 5-10% this has been adding to the value of retail sales

Also the holiday season and tourism at this time of year must increase retail sales, particularly since the pound is low against the Euro.

On top of that population is increasing which also increases retail sales as well as GDP.

But if population goes up 5% and GDP only goes up say 4% then everyone is actually worse off.

My feeling is that a big chunk of GDP growth under Nu Labour has been down to the increase in population, not to actual growth in real economic output.

No doubt some dumbass will now accuse me of talking utter Shite 'again' without bothering to explain why.

Oh and these are just my 'thoughts' not an economics degree disertation

:blink:

off topic, but GDP includes a very large chunk of government spending. so you need to look at the makeup of the figures to see whats happening in the real world of business.

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Exactly. The recession and HPC were over when rates went to near 0%.

My IOM has fallen from £1050 a month to just £150 ;)

Your the reason we are in the $hit, you cant afford to buy the house you live in and still paid full asking price while taking I/O mortgage. What you dont know is that half your street did the same thing. :lol::lol:

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