Ftse100 Under 3000!

[Berk-hater]

So what happened to all the oh so confident predictions that the FTSE100 would be under 3,000 by now?

All the financial geniuses seem to have gone a little quiet on this one...

FWIW I still believe that's where it's heading, but like the house price indices, they've been kept bouyed up by govt. intervention, media b*llshit etc.

I'm no financial genius, but I do take time to learn and understand things like the make up of the FTSE100 and what that index actually represents. I did my own research on this to understand whether a FTSE100 tracker would be a good hedge against inflation. I came to the conclusion that the index has been so fluid in its makeup that it's nearly worthless as bechmark over the long term. See Bloo Loo's post on this thread earlier regarding the FTSE100.

I take the same approach to understanding the housing market, and guess what I've concluded...............It's going down, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but one day, (and probably for the rest of your life!)

[chevin]

God, give me strength!

It can also be viewed as a rise if you look at the graph upside down.

FFS

look... no way an I a bull. but if you draw a graph with a zero line +ve % above and -ve % below and plot points of GDP, then join all the lines up, surely it shows a rise. Or perhaps more accurate wording as an 'improvement'.

[Charterhouse]

Bloo Loo is absolutely right this is what gives the FTSE 100 upward drift - survivorship bias. It's also why buying an index call isn't necessarily such a stupid idea.

That said, it amuses me the way that some people jump all over new points of view "OMG YOU HAVEN'T GOT LOADS OF POSTS YOUR VIEW IS INVALID".

However much I agree with the consensus that another economic collapse must be just round the corner, I'm starting to lose my conviction as the stock market continues to rally. And don't say "Oh well tht's just another reason why we're all right!!" like in the "buy now peer pressure" thread. You MIGHT be wrong. Accept that.

[getdoon_weebobby]

arent we missing the key fact that the ftse could go to the moon as the main constituents make there ££ accross the globe

we could all still be all sat at home cold and hungry

[Bloo Loo]

snip.

That said, it amuses me the way that some people jump all over new points of view "OMG YOU HAVEN'T GOT LOADS OF POSTS YOUR VIEW IS INVALID".

snip

it was me under attack from the penguin I would add.

in any case, some of the people that ARE attacked are what people beleive to be trolls....and regulars recognise certain styles that come back time and again...the Chinese one xcogeo or whatever the name is, is very familiar.

as for the guy insisting a fall in GDP is a rise.....

[salamander]

look... no way an I a bull. but if you draw a graph with a zero line +ve % above and -ve % below and plot points of GDP, then join all the lines up, surely it shows a rise. Or perhaps more accurate wording as an 'improvement'.

Perhaps I can help.

Note the legend at the bottom i.e. quarterly vs annually

Full article here

[Berk-hater]

look... no way an I a bull. but if you draw a graph with a zero line +ve % above and -ve % below and plot points of GDP, then join all the lines up, surely it shows a rise. Or perhaps more accurate wording as an 'improvement'.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Please, please please go away and think about what those figures represent.

Let's try a car analogy:

Let's say you're doing 100mph and nail the brakes as hard as you can for one second, you slow down fast. Let's call this rate of slowing down "-2.4" and you find yourself doing 50mph. If you then brake a bit more gently for a further second, at a rate of "-0.8", has your speed increased or decreased?

Now, plot these rates of slowing down or "decreased speed" on a graph and tell me what that tells you. Are you going faster that 50mph again?

[pl1]

Wait, where's the famous "you are here/it's different this time/" graph, that's wheeled out whenever this question is asked?

Masked Tulip:

I still think we will see 2,995 on the FTSE this year. I have always felt that it would happen around late Oct to end of Nov time.

My gut feeling tells me............."

Oh you can pipe down for starters Mr Worse Call Ever; even for a HPC poster. We haven't forgotten

[ThePiltdownMan]

I see a mountain of household, government and corporate debt, too big to pay off, too difficult to inflate away. I see a country full of green fields and scrubby wasteland in which houses are still bafflingly unaffordable for the average family. I see Chinese people working 14 hours a day so that we can have cheaper low-quality plastic goods, shipped halfway round the world using oil that is running out. I see dozens of journalists and millions of people assuming, because they were only born in 1970, that the events of 1929-1933 and 1939-1945 can never happen again.

If you think we are in for 10 years of economic growth, increasing standards of living and world peace, fine. I don't.

accurate and to the point

[Berk-hater]

look... no way an I a bull. but if you draw a graph with a zero line +ve % above and -ve % below and plot points of GDP, then join all the lines up, surely it shows a rise. Or perhaps more accurate wording as an 'improvement'.

Another simpler analogy to help you with this delusion:

You have 100 gallons of water in a bucket

It's leaking at a rate of 2.4 gallons per minute.

The govt sticks its fat finger in the leak.

It's now only leaking at 0.8 gallons per minute.

The govt shows you the graph you described above, plotting the data of water loss.

Is your bucket now filling up?

[Morgs]

Of course, the index must be changed to make sure it still reflects the top 100 companies listed on the LSE if it wasnt, we would still have an index containing companies such as Trafalgar House and Rowntree Mackintosh. These changes happen once a quarter, although if there are takeovers or mergers in between these times affecting companies in the FTSE 100, the index will be changed accordingly.

Yes, the companies constituting the ftse100 do change. But that's not manipulation.

Manipulation conveys an image of underhand dealing. Which isn't the case here.

[D.C.]

However much I agree with the consensus that another economic collapse must be just round the corner, I'm starting to lose my conviction as the stock market continues to rally.

Charter, why are you losing conviction?

[Bloo Loo]

Yes, the companies constituting the ftse100 do change. But that's not manipulation.

Manipulation conveys an image of underhand dealing. Which isn't the case here.

course its a manipulation.

its a measure of certain companies performance. the top 100.

even companies within the FTSE have different weightings. so a big one does well, it has little effect on the FTSE>

the thing about the FTSE, is that is DOES NOT represent the performance of peoples shares...it is an index.

the DOW is worse in my opnion as that is only 30 companies....not a lot of people know that....the MSM portray the FTSE and the DOW as the best indicators.....when in fact they are manipulated....

[xcojo]

Another simpler analogy to help you with this delusion:

You have 100 gallons of water in a bucket

It's leaking at a rate of 2.4 gallons per minute.

The govt sticks its fat finger in the leak.

It's now only leaking at 0.8 gallons per minute.

The govt shows you the graph you described above, plotting the data of water loss.

Is your bucket now filling up?

Not really the same thing is it. If we were making water, and production of that water dropped by 2.4% one month then the following month only dropped by 0.8% you could say that production had increased from what it was.

[Willy Weasel]

Not really the same thing is it. If we were making water, and production of that water dropped by 2.4% one month then the following month only dropped by 0.8% you could say that production had increased from what it was.

No, no, no, no, no!

Production has not increased from what it was. It has decreased further.

[Bloo Loo]

Not really the same thing is it. If we were making water, and production of that water dropped by 2.4% one month then the following month only dropped by 0.8% you could say that production had increased from what it was.

thats right, they made more water. and yet the level still went down.

You are Valerius and I claim nothing at all.

[Berk-hater]

Not really the same thing is it. If we were making water, and production of that water dropped by 2.4% one month then the following month only dropped by 0.8% you could say that production had increased from what it was.

Seriously mate, that genuinely is the dumbest thing I've ever seen posted on the entire internet.

I've got an offer you can't refuse, I've got 10 £1 coins in my pocket. How about you swap them for only 5 of your £50 notes.

The coins weigh loads more than your notes..........how can you refuse?

[Charterhouse]

Charter, why are you losing conviction?

Well, note that I am far more concerned with the level of various assets than I am with the level of activity in the economy. My concern is that if risk assets continue to look through the poor current data to a horizon of economic recovery that may be 2 years ago, they can continue to rise, even if we are about to experience 2 years of horrendous economic poverty.

I also think that the effforts that are being expended on attempting to reflate should not be discounted. Given how much credit availability has effectively been destroyed over the past 18 months, that there is any credit at all in Western Economies is in some ways remarkable.

[Bloo Loo]

Well, note that I am far more concerned with the level of various assets than I am with the level of activity in the economy. My concern is that if risk assets continue to look through the poor current data to a horizon of economic recovery that may be 2 years ago, they can continue to rise, even if we are about to experience 2 years of horrendous economic poverty.

I also think that the effforts that are being expended on attempting to reflate should not be discounted. Given how much credit availability has effectively been destroyed over the past 18 months, that there is any credit at all in Western Economies is in some ways remarkable.

credit is easy...you just raise an invoice.

getting is paid....thats another matter.

[alexski]

Not really the same thing is it. If we were making water, and production of that water dropped by 2.4% one month then the following month only dropped by 0.8% you could say that production had increased from what it was.

Er... Yeah it is the same thing.

If you are making water at the rate of 100 litre a month in month 1 and production dropped by 2.4% you only make 97.6 litre in month 2.

If you then suffer a further 0.8% drop in production you only make 96.81 litres in month 3.

At no point does 100 litres to 97.6 litres to 96.81 litres mean an increase in production since the amount of water you make is clearly decreasing from one month to the next.

Yeah sure the RATE of GDP decreease is slowing but the number is not positive.

[athe]

Well, note that I am far more concerned with the level of various assets than I am with the level of activity in the economy. My concern is that if risk assets continue to look through the poor current data to a horizon of economic recovery that may be 2 years ago, they can continue to rise, even if we are about to experience 2 years of horrendous economic poverty.

I also think that the effforts that are being expended on attempting to reflate should not be discounted. Given how much credit availability has effectively been destroyed over the past 18 months, that there is any credit at all in Western Economies is in some ways remarkable.

200 billion 'pounds' worth of remarkable, I'd say.

[Bloo Loo]

Er... Yeah it is the same thing.

If you are making water at the rate of 100 litre a month in month 1 and production dropped by 2.4% you only make 97.6 litre in month 2.

If you then suffer a further 0.8% drop in production you only make 96.81 litres in month 3.

At no point does 100 litres to 97.6 litres to 96.81 litres mean an increase in production since the amount of water you make is clearly decreasing from one month to the next.

Yeah sure the RATE of GDP decreease is slowing but the number is not positive.

dont worry, the government is going to nick some water from the bottom of the tank and poor it back in the top.

[xcojo]

thats right, they made more water. and yet the level still went down.

But not down by as much in the previous month. Therefore, by default, more.

[D.C.]

Not really the same thing is it. If we were making water, and production of that water dropped by 2.4% one month then the following month only dropped by 0.8% you could say that production had increased from what it was.

Wow.

The brain of a Labour voter exposed.

[Willy Weasel]

But not down by as much in the previous month. Therefore, by default, more.

I have an awful feeling we are wasting our time here.