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gruffydd

Hearing Ugly Rumours About Sterling Today

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Good news for my US dollar account, plus keeps the exports nice and competitive and means businesses here will source locally instead of in the Eurozone or Chindia.

Downside is imported food will cost more, perhaps that is why Hilarious Bean is getting worried that we do not make enough.

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My view is that the BoE is playing with fire. Once a run on sterling starts... And yes, it really will be driven by a herd mentality when it happens... Then what. I felt there was something of a herd mentality developing up in London today.

Edited by gruffydd

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"He said that the bounces in three to four quarters of decent bounce would be seen by the bounces are driven by temporary factors only."

Can anyone translate this into English please.

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It does seem as though Mr. King is acting on instructions to keep sterling as weak as possible for as long as possible.

I posted a link a long while back now about a currency trader that thought Mr. King was signalling a sell off to the markets. It fits with the general philosophy of crashing ones currency, recapitalising the banks and putting in a positive yield curve.

Sterling wanted to go higher - we're not in as bad shape as some of the G7 and the sell off was overdone. Everytime it lifts its head, Mr. King does something nasty - more QE, more damning news, etc, etc.

If he manages it, BoE open mouth operations I mean, then sterling should sky rocket at some point in the dim and distant future when we've been a bargain to the rest of the world for as long as we need to have earned some cash. This is beggar thy neighbour par excellence, IMHO.

If he doesn't, and Sterling appreciates anyway, we will be in debt deflation for a very long time and Sterling will weaken just like the yen, over a decade or more. GBP carry trade anyone?

If he overcooks it and there's a run, f*ck knows. IMF in the first instance. Lets hope parity with the dollar and 90 cents on the Euro is low enough for most people to stop selling, Mr. Soros and Mr. Rogers included.

:(

Edited to add: RB will have a field day with GBP:USD

Edited by AvidFan

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It does seem as though Mr. King is acting on instructions to keep sterling as weak as possible for as long as possible.

I posted a link a long while back now about a currency trader that thought Mr. King was signalling a sell off to the markets. It fits with the general philosophy of crashing ones currency, recapitalising the banks and putting in a positive yield curve.

Sterling wanted to go higher - we're not in as bad shape as some of the G7 and the sell off was overdone. Everytime it lifts its head, Mr. King does something nasty - more QE, more damning news, etc, etc.

If he manages it, BoE open mouth operations I mean, then sterling should sky rocket at some point in the dim and distant future when we've been a bargain to the rest of the world for as long as we need to have earned some cash. This is beggar thy neighbour par excellence, IMHO.

If he doesn't, and Sterling appreciates anyway, we will be in debt deflation for a very long time and Sterling will weaken just like the yen, over a decade or more. GBP carry trade anyone?

If he overcooks it and there's a run, f*ck knows. IMF in the first instance. Lets hope parity with the dollar and 90 cents on the Euro is low enough for most people to stop selling, Mr. Soros and Mr. Rogers included.

:(

Edited to add: RB will have a field day with GBP:USD

Do you think the Euro will survive this depression?

Because I can't see Germany bailing out Western Europe at the expense of Eastern European economies that might turn back to communism and a resurgent Russia.

The Germans have always looked to the East more than they have looked to the West.

What do you think?

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You talking Euro parity or USD parity? personally I think the later is on the cards.. we can't sustain

un-employment + benefits + public spending in the wake of the beating we are taxing on tax receipts.

Even with QE...sooner or later something will give, be it interest rates or IMF restrictions on public spending.

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Do you think the Euro will survive this depression?

I'm not sure that it will. Ultimately, will any fiat currency ever survive in the long run? We don't even have 100 years experience with one yet, do we??

You talking Euro parity or USD parity? personally I think the later is on the cards.. we can't sustain

un-employment + benefits + public spending in the wake of the beating we are taxing on tax receipts.

But neither can the US! I see both GBP and USD falling relative to, say, Gold but is Britain really any worse than the US such that the GBP will fall relative to the USD?

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Last week's media articles about the Pound 'soaring' (against the USD) annoy me.

Watch against something like the New Zealand Dollar and it's been taking a pasting.

Last week, 1 NZD = .4018p - this week 1 NZD = .4158.

Not good.

Edited by workingholiday

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Perhaps you haven't factored in the foregone conclusion that whoever gains power by next May taxes will increase and public spending will be slashed.

Add to that the racing certainty the Tories will be wielding the axe then you may gain some insight into just why the £ ain't such a bad bet. Markets and external agencies determine swings but they do like certainty and even if we are in bad shape the notion that the bitter pill is to be swallowed regardless will make them feel better and consequently sentiment bolstering the £ will increase.

The Euro still represents a curate's egg in which the Irish,Spanish and Italians diminish rather enhance so I wouldn't bet on it too much.

Mandy is peripheral and a homosexual and therefore adds little to the equation.

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;)

although by xmas would be a safer bet imho.

It will be quick though.

This is just never going to happen.

The real question is will the Euro survive this depression IMHO.

:rolleyes:

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Last week's media articles about the Pound 'soaring' (against the USD) annoy me

Gone very quiet since Thursday though haven't they?

Very quick to ramp the 'pond rising due to UK recovery' but conveniently forget to report it dropping like we're on the lead standard ;)

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